Inst for Science (@TheGoodISIS)

NEW: May 2026 Updated Analysis of Russian Shahed-type Drones Deployed Against Ukraine May 2026 marked a new peak in the scale of Russian Shahed-type UAV operations against Ukraine. According to Ukrainian Air Force reporting, over the course of the month, Russia launched a total of 8,161 Shahed-type UAVs (including decoys), of which an estimated 5,181 were Shahed/Geran strike UAVs produced at the Alabuga facility. The average launch rate reached 263 total UAVs (167 Shahed/Geran) daily, exceeding the previous records established in March and April 2026. The most significant development was not simply the increase in launch volume. Despite record numbers of UAVs being employed, the effectiveness of the attacks continued to decline. The overall hit rate fell to approximately 6.65 percent of total Shahed-type launches and roughly 10.48 percent of estimated Shahed/Geran launches. These were among the lowest effectiveness levels observed since the large-scale expansion of Russian UAV operations began. The growing role of interceptor UAVs helps explain the declining effectiveness of Russian attacks despite increasing launch volumes. The emergence of this capability represents one of the most important defensive adaptations of 2026. Ukrainian military observers reported that interceptor drones accounted for more than 40 percent of Shahed-type UAVs destroyed during some of the largest attacks late in the month. The data suggest that Russia is increasingly compensating for declining strike efficiency through larger attack packages. This trend indicates that the campaign is designed not only to damage specific targets but also to impose sustained psychological pressure on the civilian population, disrupt economic activity, exhaust Ukrainian air-defense resources, and create favorable conditions for missile strikes. Read the full analysis by @anokhin_i here: