Jukan @ ICML (@jukan05)
@jukan05
Tech otakus save the world | Not Investment Advice | DYODD
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APPLE HAS STARTED TESTING CXMT’S DRAM FOR APPLE DEVICES SOLD IN CHINA — FT
Even Chinese companies are signing LTAs now lol
RTRS:
- China’s CXMT has signed a $3 billion LTA with Tencent.
- CXMT is also in talks with other Chinese internet companies, including Alibaba Cloud, ByteDance, and Xiaomi.
- As of Q1, CXMT’s DDR5 yields still lagged behind Western peers.
- CXMT currently operates two 12-inch DRAM fabs in Hefei and one fab in Beijing, with total wafer capacity of around 300k wafers per month.
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Do these damn Chinese media outlets have so little news to cover that they’re treating my exit from A shares as breaking news??
Having recently traded China A shares myself, my impression was that the market is far too easily moved, and even manipulated, by absurd rumors.
At the time, I held a leading Chinese CCL stock. One day, a rumor circulated that Chinese securities regulators were investigating a fund for allegedly manipulating CCL related stocks. As a result, a stock that had been up nearly 7% intraday quickly gave back all its gains and fell back to around flat.
But after local Chinese media looked into the matter, the rumor was found to be false.
A shares are far too vulnerable to rumors. I no longer trade China A shares.
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I’ve reached 150,000 followers. It’s honestly hard to put into words how much this means to me.
At the same time, it can feel a bit overwhelming. In Chinese communities, some people refer to me as a KOL, and I often see my tweets being screenshotted and shared across WeChat groups in real time.
“Jukan said this.”
Sometimes even the shitposts I throw out as jokes end up being analyzed far more seriously than I ever intended....
That said, there’s no denying that I’ve received far more attention and support than I ever expected.
I wouldn’t have made it this far without all of you.
Thank you, sincerely.
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Mr. President, since the U.S. has imposed export controls on Fable 5 exports to Korea, Korea should impose memory export controls on the U.S. @Jaemyung_Lee
Intel’s EMIB Packaging Is Growing Rapidly — Silicon Capacitors Are Taking Off Too
Silicon capacitors are poised for explosive growth in the AI semiconductor space. Intel has been found to be planning a large-scale adoption of silicon capacitors starting next year, in order to enhance the performance of its in-house 2.5D packaging technology, “EMIB.”
The most clearly visible source of demand is Google. Google plans to launch its next-generation AI accelerator, “v8e,” in the second half of next year, and has adopted an EMIB substrate with embedded silicon capacitors for that chip. With other Big Tech companies such as Amazon also currently applying EMIB, analysts say demand could increase sharply.
According to industry sources on the 27th, Intel plans to apply silicon capacitors to its 2.5D packaging starting next year.
Intel Adopts “Silicon Capacitors” for 2.5D Packaging… Google AI Chip Gets First Application
2.5D is an advanced packaging technology that inserts a thin-film interposer between the semiconductor and the substrate. Because it can connect circuits at higher density compared with conventional packaging that uses only a substrate, demand is rising in the AI and HPC fields.
To improve cost efficiency in 2.5D packaging, Intel devised its own technology called EMIB. Rather than using a broad, spread-out interposer, EMIB connects chip to chip using a small silicon bridge. Since bridges only need to be placed where chip-to-chip connections are required, chips can be arranged more flexibly and efficiently.
Recently, EMIB has been drawing attention as an alternative to TSMC, which had been leading the existing 2.5D packaging market. This is because TSMC’s 2.5D packaging capacity is suffering from a supply shortage amid the rapid development of the AI industry.
Indeed, global Big Tech player Google is also paying attention to EMIB. Google has decided to adopt EMIB for its in-house AI semiconductor “v8e,” which it plans to launch in the second half of next year. Under this structure, TSMC handles chip mass production, MediaTek handles design and manufacturing support, and Intel handles packaging.
However, there have been concerns that EMIB is gradually showing limitations in providing stable power supply for AI semiconductors, which consume large amounts of power. Accordingly, Intel plans to introduce new technologies such as silicon capacitors and through-silicon vias (TSV) to ensure stable packaging for the v8e.
A capacitor is a component that stores and releases electricity in an electronic circuit. In the case of silicon capacitors, their resistance (ESL/ESR) is more than 100 times lower than that of conventional multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCC), minimizing the signal loss that occurs in high-performance semiconductors. They can also be designed in an ultra-thin structure based on a silicon wafer, enabling high-density integration.
A semiconductor industry official explained, “Because the voltage drop (the phenomenon of voltage decreasing) that occurs in the high-frequency region within AI chips is difficult to solve with MLCC, we understand that Intel is adopting silicon capacitors as a solution,” adding, “The relevant supply chain is now in place, and mass production is set to begin in earnest next year.”
EMIB-T Is Already on a Growth Trajectory — The Related Ecosystem and Market Are Expanding Together
Intel has also inserted TSVs, which serve as power-delivery channels, into the silicon bridge. The key point is that by using TSVs to shorten the power-delivery path between the substrate and the chip, Intel has improved power efficiency and signal integrity. Intel calls this “EMIB-T.”
The industry expects the EMIB-T and silicon capacitor markets to grow rapidly.
This is because Japan’s Ibiden — one of the major companies that mass-produces semiconductor substrates for EMIB-T — is aggressively pursuing capital investment.
Previously, Ibiden had planned to build its Kawashima (Gama) plant in Gifu Prefecture as a substrate plant for Intel CPUs. However, it postponed that schedule and decided in the first half of this year to officially convert the Gama plant into a mass-production line for EMIB-T substrates. The investment is 220 billion yen (about KRW 2.1 trillion).
In its recent earnings announcement, Ibiden stated, “Operation of the Gama plant will begin in 2027 and enter full-scale mass production in 2028,” adding, “EMIB-T substrate capacity is currently far short of demand. However, adding further capacity is quite difficult, so we are discussing options with our customers.”
A semiconductor industry official explained, “Ibiden’s EMIB-T-dedicated line is being built with most of the investment coming from customers such as Google, Amazon, and Intel,” adding, “This demonstrates that AI semiconductors based on EMIB-T will grow significantly going forward, and silicon capacitors are likely to expand alongside them.”
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As a Korean, this is very sad.
According to a local Korean media report released today, LG Electronics has reportedly explored the possibility of selling its TV business to China’s Hisense.
The Korean TV industry has collapsed.
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From Evercore ISI’s report:
NVDA’s claimed 35x TCO advantage does not resonate strongly with the average AI engineer, and there is a widespread perception that its 70%+ gross margins are excessive. There is a clear willingness to improve economics by using ASICs or “good enough” alternatives.
Some hyperscalers push back against NVDA’s 35x TCO advantage claim, arguing that the calculation does not account for power consumption around the chip, including cooling. The power component, including cooling, can account for 30–50% of total overhead costs.
No major issues have been observed at the hyperscaler level in the bring-up preparation for Rubin mass production.
Vera Rubin mass-production shipments are expected to be received by hyperscalers in 2Q26, while enterprise OEMs are expected to have access around September–October 2026.
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According to the website of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), Yangtze Memory Holdings, the parent company of YMTC, has submitted a listing tutoring report in preparation for an IPO and stock market listing.
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This is a bit scary… Samsung’s P5 could reportedly come online in 2027.
Samsung vs. SK Hynix: All-Out Push to Accelerate "Super Fast Track" Fab Expansion
As the memory shortage persists, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix — both racing to maximize profitability by ramping up output — have entered a head-to-head sprint over fab construction. Both companies are pulling out all the stops to pull forward their fab completion schedules, and the competition has spilled over into a scramble for certain construction materials.
Industry observers note that with the memory supply shortage likely to be prolonged on the back of expanding AI infrastructure investment, both companies have effectively shifted into a "speed-war regime" to secure first-mover advantage in the market. With some construction materials running short of demand, companies that fail to lock in supply early are seeing their construction timelines slip — and the behind-the-scenes competition between the two memory giants is expected to intensify further.
According to the semiconductor industry, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have recently been moving to compress their fab construction schedules. Both companies are cutting build times below their original plans in a push to expand memory capacity. Samsung is accelerating the buildout of its Pyeongtaek campus. P5 Fab 1 is currently under construction, and P6 (P5 Fab 2) is scheduled to break ground in July — meaning the two fabs will go vertical simultaneously.
According to industry sources, Samsung is in discussions with Samsung C&T over various construction methods aimed at cutting the P5 Fab 1 build schedule by more than half versus the original plan. Samsung resumed full-scale construction last November, with completion initially expected in the second half of 2028. However, if the schedule compression materializes, the line could be brought online as early as 2027. Samsung C&T is the contractor for P5 Fab 1.
One industry source said, "Samsung is currently pushing to roughly halve the construction timeline for P5 Fab 1," adding that "the construction site is now running a three-shift system, with overnight work and even Sunday operations underway."
P5 Fab 2 has also entered speed-war mode. The industry expects steel column installation to begin around year-end, following a full-scale groundbreaking in July. Semiconductor fab construction typically begins with piling work — driving piles into the ground to lay the foundation — followed by the installation of anchor bolts to support the steel columns and a concrete curing process. If the schedule holds, column installation could begin by the end of this year.
SK Hynix, not to be outdone, is accelerating construction at its Yongin semiconductor cluster. The company is currently in Phase 1 of frame construction at Fab 1 of the Yongin cluster, with a cleanroom opening targeted for February of next year. Fab 1 will consist of two frame structures and six cleanrooms, with cleanrooms to be built sequentially by phase. Phase 1 — which covers the first frame stage and one cleanroom — is currently underway, and Phase 2, the second frame stage of Fab 1, is scheduled to break ground in August.
Previously, the industry had expected SK Hynix to begin Fab 2 construction only after completing the Fab 1 expansion. However, sources on the ground say scheduling work for Fab 2 construction has already largely been arranged. At the same time, SK Hynix is said to have pre-emptively built out its Phase 2 and Phase 4 teams to accelerate the Fab 1 cleanroom buildout.
Another source on the ground commented, "SK Hynix is trying to push fab construction on a 'Super Fast Track' basis. The construction BIM team will be fully staffed through Phase 4 by July, and once those teams are in place, cleanroom construction is likely to ramp in earnest just two months later."
As both companies race to expand capacity ahead of memory demand, competition for construction materials is reportedly heating up as well. On the ground, both Samsung and SK Hynix are sourcing some steel structural products from Sencore Tech, a specialist steel-structure maker. Sencore Tech applies a proprietary, patented method that enables construction time to be shortened in some of its products, and has previously supplied products for SK Hynix's Icheon M16 and Samsung's Pyeongtaek campus Office Building 3, among others.
Samsung is reportedly applying Sencore Tech's PC girders to the complex building being built between P5 Fab 1 and P5 Fab 2. PC girders are precast concrete beams manufactured at the factory that horizontally connect columns. However, with Sencore Tech having signed a priority-supply agreement with SK Hynix, the production schedule for PC girders bound for Samsung is reportedly facing some delays.
A source on the ground said, "Sencore Tech is understood to have a larger share of its supply allocated to SK Hynix. With Samsung now applying Sencore Tech's products to this complex building project, the two companies are effectively competing for the same construction materials."
The aggressive speed war between the two companies is being driven by the deepening memory shortage. With AI infrastructure demand surging since last year and supply failing to keep pace, prices have been rising sharply — to the point that, in the market, memory has become a "name-your-price" commodity. Market researcher TrendForce projects that commodity DRAM and NAND contract prices will rise 63% and 75% quarter-on-quarter, respectively, in 2Q.
The industry reads this as Samsung and SK Hynix racing to expand capacity in order to capture market leadership in a rapidly expanding AI memory market. Both companies recently outlined their fab construction plans on their 1Q earnings calls and signaled an intent to accelerate them. One industry source said, "In the AI semiconductor market, what matters most is how quickly and reliably you can deliver supply. Both companies are pushing to accelerate fab expansion in order to secure leadership in the AI memory market."
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Samsung vs. SK Hynix: All-Out Push to Accelerate "Super Fast Track" Fab Expansion
As the memory shortage persists, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix — both racing to maximize profitability by ramping up output — have entered a head-to-head sprint over fab construction. Both companies are pulling out all the stops to pull forward their fab completion schedules, and the competition has spilled over into a scramble for certain construction materials.
Industry observers note that with the memory supply shortage likely to be prolonged on the back of expanding AI infrastructure investment, both companies have effectively shifted into a "speed-war regime" to secure first-mover advantage in the market. With some construction materials running short of demand, companies that fail to lock in supply early are seeing their construction timelines slip — and the behind-the-scenes competition between the two memory giants is expected to intensify further.
According to the semiconductor industry, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have recently been moving to compress their fab construction schedules. Both companies are cutting build times below their original plans in a push to expand memory capacity. Samsung is accelerating the buildout of its Pyeongtaek campus. P5 Fab 1 is currently under construction, and P6 (P5 Fab 2) is scheduled to break ground in July — meaning the two fabs will go vertical simultaneously.
According to industry sources, Samsung is in discussions with Samsung C&T over various construction methods aimed at cutting the P5 Fab 1 build schedule by more than half versus the original plan. Samsung resumed full-scale construction last November, with completion initially expected in the second half of 2028. However, if the schedule compression materializes, the line could be brought online as early as 2027. Samsung C&T is the contractor for P5 Fab 1.
One industry source said, "Samsung is currently pushing to roughly halve the construction timeline for P5 Fab 1," adding that "the construction site is now running a three-shift system, with overnight work and even Sunday operations underway."
P5 Fab 2 has also entered speed-war mode. The industry expects steel column installation to begin around year-end, following a full-scale groundbreaking in July. Semiconductor fab construction typically begins with piling work — driving piles into the ground to lay the foundation — followed by the installation of anchor bolts to support the steel columns and a concrete curing process. If the schedule holds, column installation could begin by the end of this year.
SK Hynix, not to be outdone, is accelerating construction at its Yongin semiconductor cluster. The company is currently in Phase 1 of frame construction at Fab 1 of the Yongin cluster, with a cleanroom opening targeted for February of next year. Fab 1 will consist of two frame structures and six cleanrooms, with cleanrooms to be built sequentially by phase. Phase 1 — which covers the first frame stage and one cleanroom — is currently underway, and Phase 2, the second frame stage of Fab 1, is scheduled to break ground in August.
Previously, the industry had expected SK Hynix to begin Fab 2 construction only after completing the Fab 1 expansion. However, sources on the ground say scheduling work for Fab 2 construction has already largely been arranged. At the same time, SK Hynix is said to have pre-emptively built out its Phase 2 and Phase 4 teams to accelerate the Fab 1 cleanroom buildout.
Another source on the ground commented, "SK Hynix is trying to push fab construction on a 'Super Fast Track' basis. The construction BIM team will be fully staffed through Phase 4 by July, and once those teams are in place, cleanroom construction is likely to ramp in earnest just two months later."
As both companies race to expand capacity ahead of memory demand, competition for construction materials is reportedly heating up as well. On the ground, both Samsung and SK Hynix are sourcing some steel structural products from Sencore Tech, a specialist steel-structure maker. Sencore Tech applies a proprietary, patented method that enables construction time to be shortened in some of its products, and has previously supplied products for SK Hynix's Icheon M16 and Samsung's Pyeongtaek campus Office Building 3, among others.
Samsung is reportedly applying Sencore Tech's PC girders to the complex building being built between P5 Fab 1 and P5 Fab 2. PC girders are precast concrete beams manufactured at the factory that horizontally connect columns. However, with Sencore Tech having signed a priority-supply agreement with SK Hynix, the production schedule for PC girders bound for Samsung is reportedly facing some delays.
A source on the ground said, "Sencore Tech is understood to have a larger share of its supply allocated to SK Hynix. With Samsung now applying Sencore Tech's products to this complex building project, the two companies are effectively competing for the same construction materials."
The aggressive speed war between the two companies is being driven by the deepening memory shortage. With AI infrastructure demand surging since last year and supply failing to keep pace, prices have been rising sharply — to the point that, in the market, memory has become a "name-your-price" commodity. Market researcher TrendForce projects that commodity DRAM and NAND contract prices will rise 63% and 75% quarter-on-quarter, respectively, in 2Q.
The industry reads this as Samsung and SK Hynix racing to expand capacity in order to capture market leadership in a rapidly expanding AI memory market. Both companies recently outlined their fab construction plans on their 1Q earnings calls and signaled an intent to accelerate them. One industry source said, "In the AI semiconductor market, what matters most is how quickly and reliably you can deliver supply. Both companies are pushing to accelerate fab expansion in order to secure leadership in the AI memory market."
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“A couple of customers have prepaid for substrates, because the substrate supply chain is very tight – so I need to put up the money to secure this material…(and it shows) the commitment to me – so that’s very exciting.”
LFG Ibiden!!!
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Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan sat down with CNBC’s Jim Cramer to talk about Apple; Intel 14A rivaling TSMC's top chip production technology; Shortages of CPUs and substrates; and the state of Intel's turnaround.
How to know when Intel signs Apple or other foundry customers:
Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan: “Over time, the IP will be ready so we can serve some of these customers. I think the best indication, when you see I increase my capex, I’m putting money to buy equipment, that means I have real customers. That’s the discipline I have.”
Intel 14A manufacturing process and EMIB-T advanced packaging:
Intel CEO: “(A14) is 1.4nm, this is the most advanced. To be candid with you, in 2028 we will have risk production. 2029 will be volume production. It will be the same time as TSMC. So that is a major, major breakthrough, and I’m so excited.
And we already have multiple customers engaged with us, and we have 0.5 PDK available.”
Taking advantage of TSMC’s CoWoS shortage
Intel CEO: “Our technology is called EMIB-T, this is the next generation of advanced packaging. We really have the best technology and now we are making sure we can bring it into volume production with reliable yield so the customer can count on us.”
CEO: “You know, CoWoS…(TSMC) ran out of capacity, so in a way we’ve become in the unique position to support that and that’s something we are very excited (about).”
Shortages of CPUs and Substrates
CEO on the CPU shortage: “I’ll give you one example. I had one customer say Lip Bu, we gave you the forecast for this year, but we want to increase 3x, and I say I cannot do it overnight but give me a few quarters and I will catch up. So, I think this demand is not short term, it’s the next couple of years. It’s a great opportunity.”
CEO: “Right now, as I mentioned, CPU is in high demand. And that’s good for me. I cannot even ship enough to the customer. It used to be the CPU to GPU ratio for training was 1-to-8. And now, because of inference and agentic AI, and more agents you have to manage, and orchestration, and reinforced learning, CPU is actually better, so that becomes 1-to-4 and 1-to-1 and some people even talk about 4-to1, and so that’s a huge opportunity to me to drive the CPU....”
CEO on Substrates: “A couple of customers have prepaid for substrates, because the substrate supply chain is very tight – so I need to put up the money to secure this material…(and it shows) the commitment to me – so that’s very exciting.”
Intel’s Turnaround
CEO: “We used to have leadership in data center, and over the years we lost it…We made some big mistakes,” he said, adding he’s brought back some talent to refocus the product lines and that “Coral Rapids will have multi-threading, and will come out very strong.”
CEO: “When I took over, the 18A yield was not good, so I had to ask some of the ecosystem partners to help me look at the data, see how to improve. The best practice is to see 7% or 8% yield improvement per month, and now I’m seeing it.”
CEO: “The other part is supposed to be the yield performance, defect density, you know at the end of the year to see the target. Now I see that even before the end of the year – so that is very big encouragement for me and also that’s why Panther Lake can be shipped in volume now.
And now some customers knock on my door and say Lip Bu, now we hear you are making great progress, can you now open up to outside customers? So that is very exciting. It’s a lot of hard work, it’s a lot of teamwork, it’s a lot of talent I’ve brought on board.”
CEO: “In the past we made a lot of mistakes and now we correct the mistake and we’ve simplified the roadmap. By the way, from Day 1 I came on board as the CEO, I have all the engineers report to me so I have an understanding, hear from the customer, and know where are the mistakes.”
Cramer: “They didn’t report to the previous CEO?”
CEO: “No. And in a way, they had too many silos, too many people reporting…So I decided, the best thing is to really understand where the problem is, so I can focus on the engineering, how to redesign, simplify the product and then get the real killer products out.”
Cramer asks about China, Taiwan and the importance of US manufacturing:
CEO: “I was very glad for President Trump understanding the strategic importance for the United States to have (chip manufacturing supply chain) and their support is so valuable to me – it’s so critical for the country to have the technology, R&D development, manufacturing in the United States. That’s why I came back in, as a U.S. citizen – as a calling – to do that.”
CEO: “From time to time I update President Trump and also (Sec.) Howard Lutnick and they are big supporters of me and we are delighted to have their support.”
Going forward:
CEO: “I recruited some key talent…and now, by the end of June, I will have my team, what I consider my team, so that we can work on the next 5-years, 10-years, how to become a different company. I call it the New Intel, work at the speed of light, work as a team to progress forward.”
$INTC $TSM #Samsung# $UMC $GFS #semiconductors#
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It looks like Jensen Huang is heading back to Taiwan.
According to Taiwanese media, he may unveil an edge-device chip co-developed with MediaTek at Computex.
Kye-hyun Kyung, Samsung Electronics Senior Advisor: "Memory prices to fall in H2 next year… Korea must cultivate deep-tech manufacturing"
Kye-hyun Kyung, Senior Advisor and former head of Samsung Electronics' Device Solutions (DS) Division, forecast that memory semiconductor prices will decline starting in the second half of next year, and urged Korean industry to prepare in advance.
Delivering the keynote at the 285th NAEK Forum, hosted by the National Academy of Engineering of Korea (NAEK) at L-Tower in Seocho-gu, Seoul on the 18th, Advisor Kyung said, "Chinese players are aggressively expanding production capacity (CAPA)," adding that "as memory supply surges, the market could shift starting in the second half of next year or the first half of 2028."
Citing global market research firms, Kyung projected that memory prices will fall from H2 next year, when global memory CAPA is expected to surge to 6 million wafers per month. "If Big Tech's return on capex deteriorates, there is a possibility that investment could be scaled back," he said, also warning that memory demand itself could contract from 2028 onwards.
While Korean industry, led by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, is currently enjoying unprecedented growth by capturing Big Tech's memory demand, the former head of Samsung's semiconductor business argued that Korea must prepare in advance for the post-boom period. Advisor Kyung pointed out, "Korea holds nearly 70% share of the DRAM market, but only 1.5% of the fabless market, and unlike Taiwan, Korea lacks a full-stack semiconductor ecosystem that includes fabless."
He went on to advise that "Korea must leap forward as a deep-tech-based manufacturing nation." The point is that Korea should independently build advanced technology capabilities—not only in memory but also in fabless-based system semiconductors and sovereign AI—and actively apply them to its existing strength in manufacturing. He added, "It is difficult for Korea to compete simultaneously with the U.S. and China in both hardware and software," and that "it is important for Korea to do what it does well, and to that end, we must seriously consider how to deploy AI."
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KYE-HYUN KYUNG, ADVISOR TO SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS: MEMORY PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO DECLINE STARTING IN THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT YEAR.
UBS models 2026 TPU shipments at 4.13 million units in total, consisting of 3.68 million units from AVGO and 450,000 units from MTK.
For 2027, UBS models total TPU shipments at 9.87 million units, consisting of 6.76 million units from AVGO and 3.11 million units from MTK.
$AVGO
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>> TrendForce: Expansion of high-end demand and preemptive inventory build-up in consumer channels could drive an MLCC price rebound
• According to TrendForce’s latest research, strong AI chip demand is tightening supply-demand conditions for high-end MLCCs, while supply of consumer-grade MLCCs is also coming under pressure. As a result, some distributors have begun precautionary inventory build-up, and suppliers are responding with price hikes.
• Recent price negotiations between ODMs and suppliers also show that the average decline in overall MLCC prices has reached its lowest level in the past three years. TrendForce analyzes this as evidence that the MLCC pricing cycle has entered a critical phase ahead of a potential rebound.
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