Justin Mateen (@justinmateen)
@justinmateen
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There’s a lot of talk about OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX being worth more than the combined IPO day value of all 3,365 U.S. tech IPOs from 1980-2025.
But they can have very different destinies.
OpenAI and Anthropic can both become $5-10 trillion companies near term and still ultimately become zeros if they don’t create a real moat. SpaceX has spent decades building one.
Incremental model improvements alone will not be enough for the frontier labs.
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