郭明錤｜Ming-Chi Kuo (@mingchikuo)

雖然 Trump 說 Tim Cook 是最適合接任黃仁勳 Nvidia CEO 位置的人選，但我覺得最能發揮 Cook 所長的應該只有成本管理。根據我側面觀察 Apple 供應鏈管理超過 10 年以上的經驗，來對比這幾年追蹤與研究 Nvidia 的心得，我覺得 Nvidia 在供應鏈成本管理上，還有明顯的改善空間。 其他方面，特別是最重要的新技術規劃與開發，不要說 Cook 了，目前已經證明能在維持快速商業化迭代更新下，把人類最先端的各領域技術導入 AI 晶片與機櫃方案的 CEO，這件事做得明顯好的只有黃仁勳（當然未來應該還會有其他人也能證明可以把這件事做很好）。

Key takeaways on Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s resignation: 1. Near term, the bad news is priced in: For the stock market, this could be a one-time clearing event. Huang has now fully cut ties with Nvidia, so Congress summoning him and any follow-up investigations should have less impact on Nvidia’s stock from here. As for how Huang’s next moves might affect Nvidia, it’s too early to call before the investigation results are out. 2. Google’s TPU is likely the biggest beneficiary: With Nvidia facing succession uncertainty, Google’s TPU has a chance to win more trust from customers and the supply chain. Its key partners, MediaTek and Broadcom, could be the market’s near-term focus. 3. Succession impact shows up in 2028 at the earliest: CFO Colette Kress is now interim CEO. The formal CEO transition and the organizational changes that come with it will likely start affecting Nvidia’s product development and competitiveness in 2028 at the earliest. 4. Capacity pre-booking and spec upgrades are the key focus for supply chain checks: Huang’s product strategy pushed the supply chain hard in two ways: capacity pre-booking and spec upgrades. It’s critical to watch for any changes in capacity expansion and new tech development across the supply chain. These are among the core reasons Nvidia’s supply chain trades at high P/E multiples. 5. China demand and export controls: The share of Nvidia’s AI chip revenue that ultimately ends up with Chinese buyers may be higher than what the company has officially stated. That’s why some investors worry Nvidia’s revenue will drop sharply once the US government tightens export controls. But China’s end demand won’t disappear because of export controls. Even under tighter rules, as long as overseas resale channels exist, Chinese buyers may still pay the premium, even at several times the price, and get Nvidia chips/racks through indirect routes.

重點分析 Nvidia CEO 黃仁勳辭職： 1. 短期利空出盡： 對股市而言，短期內可能是一次性的利空出盡。黃仁勳目前已與 Nvidia 完全切割，接下來國會傳喚黃仁勳及後續調查，對 Nvidia 股價的影響應該會較小。至於黃仁勳離職後的動向對 Nvidia 的影響，在調查結果出爐前，現在就下判斷仍言之過早。 2. Google TPU 為直觀下的最大受益者： 在 Nvidia 面臨接班不確定性下，Google TPU 可能有機會進一步取得客戶與供應鏈信任，其核心合作廠商聯發科與 Broadcom 或為短期市場焦點。 3. 接班影響最快自 2028 年浮現： 目前 CFO Colette Kress 擔任代理執行長。後續正式 CEO 交接與相應的組織改革，對 Nvidia 產品開發與競爭力的影響，預期最快可能自 2028 年開始浮現。 4. 產能預訂與規格升級為供應鏈研究焦點： 黃仁勳的產品策略對供應鏈有兩大激進影響：「產能預訂」與「規格升級」。未來需密切關注供應鏈在擴產與新技術開發方面有無變化，這是支撐 Nvidia 供應鏈高本益比的核心因素之一。 5. 中國需求與出口管制： Nvidia 最終流向中國買家的 AI 晶片營收比重，可能高於過去對外的正式聲明。因此，有些投資人擔心，美國政府實施更嚴格的出口管制後，Nvidia 營收將顯著衰退。不過，中國終端需求並不會因出口管制而消失。即使出口管制加嚴，只要海外仍存在轉售管道，即使轉售價格高出數倍，中國買家仍有可能承擔溢價並輾轉取得 Nvidia 晶片／機櫃。

Jensen Huang matters to Nvidia because he can take technologies his engineers believe are possible and turn them into products the whole company commits resources to, takes risks on, and has to deliver. That's why the supply chain gets such strong order visibility and is willing to keep up with aggressive spec upgrades. It also forces competitors to follow, which drives technology upgrades and supply chain investment across the entire AI industry. Between the two, deciding on aggressive spec upgrades and making them happen is the harder part, compared with giving the supply chain order visibility. Huang doesn't need to be the person at Nvidia who knows the most about new technologies like HVDC, CPO/NPO, or CCL/PTFE. His value is that he weighs strategy, organization, technology, and supply chain all at once, then makes the call quickly and puts resources behind it. Based on what's public so far, it looks hard for Huang to come out of this unscathed. If so, the practical move may be to gradually reduce Nvidia's reliance on Huang's personal decision-making while preparing a succession plan. Along the way, two things are worth watching to gauge where AI technology and investment are heading: whether Nvidia can keep developing new products and technologies as efficiently as before, and how competitors respond. Supply chain research will be an important basis for that judgment.

黃仁勳對 Nvidia 的重要性，在於他能把工程團隊認為可能實現的技術，轉化成全公司願意投入資源、承擔風險，而且必須交付的產品。正因如此，供應鏈才能有極高的訂單能見度，並配合激進的規格升級。而這也帶動了競爭對手的跟進，進一步推動整體 AI 產業的技術升級與供應鏈投資。 如果硬要比較，做出並落實激進規格升級的決策，比提供供應鏈訂單能見度更困難。黃仁勳不必是 Nvidia 內部最懂 HVDC、CPO/NPO 與 CCL/PTFE 等新技術的人，但他的價值，在於同時考慮到策略、組織、技術與供應鏈，並迅速拍板定案與投入資源執行。 就目前公開資訊，黃仁勳似乎很難全身而退。在這前提下，比較務實的做法，可能是階段性降低 Nvidia 對黃仁勳個人的決策依賴，同時布局接班計畫。而在這過程中，Nvidia 能否延續高效的新產品與新技術研發，以及競爭對手如何因應，將是觀察整體 AI 產業技術發展與投資趨勢的重點，而供應鏈研究則能提供重要的判斷依據。

I rarely make public calls on stock price trends (industry research and stock price forecasting are two entirely different things). One recent exception came ahead of WWDC26, when I said I was positive on Apple's share-price trend in 2H26 and added: "...regardless of what Apple says at WWDC26, as long as this core bull narrative stays intact, Apple's positive 2H26 share-price trend is unlikely to change." After weathering a pullback triggered by the post-WWDC26 sell-the-news reaction and Apple's product price hikes, Apple shares still reached an intraday all-time high despite recent market volatility, consistent with the trend I forecast a month ago.

我最新的產業調查顯示，Amazon 自有消費電子的處理器採購策略，20 年來將首次有重大轉向：捨棄外購並改採 COT（customer-owned tooling）模式，世芯-KY 獨家提供自研晶片的後段設計與測試。幾個重點： 1. 受 AI 算力快速擴張影響，Amazon 截至 1Q26 的過去 12 個月自由現金流年減 95%，降至約 12 億美元。為維持財務彈性並支撐 AI 投資週期，公司正同步精簡組織並優化非 AI 業務的成本結構。 2. Amazon 自有消費電子產品，包括：Kindle、Fire TV、Echo、Alexa 裝置、Blink、Ring 等，目前採用的處理器均為外購。為優化成本結構，Amazon 決定將逐步停止外購，改採與 AI 晶片 Trainium 類似的 COT 模式，自行主導處理器開發。 3. 在此轉型過程中，Amazon 選定的合作對象為世芯-KY，由其獨家負責後段設計與測試。世芯-KY 除了會就各項設計專案向 Amazon 收取一次性工程費用（NRE），也會隨處理器的出貨受惠。 4. 此策略預計自 2027 年起啟動，待全面轉換完成後，自研處理器的年出貨量預估將達到約 4,000 萬顆，預期將有效改善 Amazon 自有產品的成本結構，並顯著貢獻世芯-KY 的營運動能。

The memory supply-demand gap will keep widening through 2027. That is the real reason Apple is lobbying the White House to keep CXMT off the Entity List. ▌Start with my latest industry checks: The pressure on Apple has shifted from soaring memory costs to a widening supply gap. 1. Of the memory capacity allocated to consumer electronics in 2026, an estimated 15–20% is expected to shift to data centers in 2027, and that share could grow. 2. Due to tight memory (LPDDR) supply, Apple's actual pull-in volume of A20 chips in 2H26–1Q27 could be 10–20% below its original target (though part of that may reflect Apple’s own overbooking). ▌CXMT states in its IPO prospectus that its capacity is far below domestic demand. Given the persistent global memory imbalance, even if Apple’s lobbying succeeds and it buys DRAM from CXMT, that would not materially lower costs or fill the supply gap. Still, with the imbalance widening, Apple has every reason to secure an additional source. ▌This also explains why Apple is being more proactive this time than it was when it evaluated YMTC in 2022. YMTC was mainly about lowering NAND costs; CXMT is about managing DRAM supply risk. ▌Tim Cook is one of the few tech leaders who can still navigate both Washington and Beijing, so this is better handled before he steps down as CEO. Even if the effort goes nowhere, the media coverage can still leave the market with the impression that Apple tried but was constrained by U.S. policy. That may help ease frustration over price hikes and longer delivery times.

2027 年記憶體供需缺口將持續擴大，這才是 Apple 遊說白宮「避免長鑫存儲未來被列入實體清單」的真相 ▌先講我最新的產業調查：Apple 面對的壓力，已從記憶體成本大增，升級到供需缺口持續擴大。 1. 2026 年用於消費電子的記憶體產能中，預計 15–20% 將於 2027 年轉供資料中心，且後續不排除繼續擴大。 2. 受記憶體（LPDDR）供應緊張影響，Apple 在 2H26–1Q27 對 A20 處理器的實際拉貨量，可能比原目標少 10–20%（不過，這也可能部分是 Apple over-booking 的結果）。 ▌長鑫在招股書中提到，該公司的產能遠低於國內需求；加上全球記憶體供需持續失衡，因此即便 Apple 遊說成功並向長鑫採購 DRAM，也不會顯著降低成本與改善供需缺口。但在供需失衡持續擴大下，Apple 仍有必要爭取新的供應來源。 ▌這也解釋為何 Apple 這次會比 2022 年評估長江存儲更積極。當年的長江，是提供改善 NAND 成本的選項；而這次的長鑫，則是管理 DRAM 供需失衡風險的選項。 ▌Tim Cook 是少數能同時與美中政府維持良好關係的科技領袖，故此事最好趕在他卸任 CEO 前完成。即便最終未果，透過媒體披露後，也能讓市場留下「Apple 已盡力、無奈仍受限於美方政策」的印象，或能緩和市場對漲價與交期拉長的不滿。

如我先前所說，Apple可以想辦法安撫川普情緒，來暫時性轉移川普對iPhone關稅的注意力，看來Apple找到方法了。 Trump: Apple Is Going to Buy a Lot of Trump Gold Cards