郭明錤｜Ming-Chi Kuo (@mingchikuo)

I rarely make public calls on stock price trends (industry research and stock price forecasting are two entirely different things). One recent exception came ahead of WWDC26, when I said I was positive on Apple's share-price trend in 2H26 and added: "...regardless of what Apple says at WWDC26, as long as this core bull narrative stays intact, Apple's positive 2H26 share-price trend is unlikely to change." After weathering a pullback triggered by the post-WWDC26 sell-the-news reaction and Apple's product price hikes, Apple shares still reached an intraday all-time high despite recent market volatility, consistent with the trend I forecast a month ago.

我最新的產業調查顯示，Amazon 自有消費電子的處理器採購策略，20 年來將首次有重大轉向：捨棄外購並改採 COT（customer-owned tooling）模式，世芯-KY 獨家提供自研晶片的後段設計與測試。幾個重點： 1. 受 AI 算力快速擴張影響，Amazon 截至 1Q26 的過去 12 個月自由現金流年減 95%，降至約 12 億美元。為維持財務彈性並支撐 AI 投資週期，公司正同步精簡組織並優化非 AI 業務的成本結構。 2. Amazon 自有消費電子產品，包括：Kindle、Fire TV、Echo、Alexa 裝置、Blink、Ring 等，目前採用的處理器均為外購。為優化成本結構，Amazon 決定將逐步停止外購，改採與 AI 晶片 Trainium 類似的 COT 模式，自行主導處理器開發。 3. 在此轉型過程中，Amazon 選定的合作對象為世芯-KY，由其獨家負責後段設計與測試。世芯-KY 除了會就各項設計專案向 Amazon 收取一次性工程費用（NRE），也會隨處理器的出貨受惠。 4. 此策略預計自 2027 年起啟動，待全面轉換完成後，自研處理器的年出貨量預估將達到約 4,000 萬顆，預期將有效改善 Amazon 自有產品的成本結構，並顯著貢獻世芯-KY 的營運動能。

The memory supply-demand gap will keep widening through 2027. That is the real reason Apple is lobbying the White House to keep CXMT off the Entity List. ▌Start with my latest industry checks: The pressure on Apple has shifted from soaring memory costs to a widening supply gap. 1. Of the memory capacity allocated to consumer electronics in 2026, an estimated 15–20% is expected to shift to data centers in 2027, and that share could grow. 2. Due to tight memory (LPDDR) supply, Apple's actual pull-in volume of A20 chips in 2H26–1Q27 could be 10–20% below its original target (though part of that may reflect Apple’s own overbooking). ▌CXMT states in its IPO prospectus that its capacity is far below domestic demand. Given the persistent global memory imbalance, even if Apple’s lobbying succeeds and it buys DRAM from CXMT, that would not materially lower costs or fill the supply gap. Still, with the imbalance widening, Apple has every reason to secure an additional source. ▌This also explains why Apple is being more proactive this time than it was when it evaluated YMTC in 2022. YMTC was mainly about lowering NAND costs; CXMT is about managing DRAM supply risk. ▌Tim Cook is one of the few tech leaders who can still navigate both Washington and Beijing, so this is better handled before he steps down as CEO. Even if the effort goes nowhere, the media coverage can still leave the market with the impression that Apple tried but was constrained by U.S. policy. That may help ease frustration over price hikes and longer delivery times.

2027 年記憶體供需缺口將持續擴大，這才是 Apple 遊說白宮「避免長鑫存儲未來被列入實體清單」的真相 ▌先講我最新的產業調查：Apple 面對的壓力，已從記憶體成本大增，升級到供需缺口持續擴大。 1. 2026 年用於消費電子的記憶體產能中，預計 15–20% 將於 2027 年轉供資料中心，且後續不排除繼續擴大。 2. 受記憶體（LPDDR）供應緊張影響，Apple 在 2H26–1Q27 對 A20 處理器的實際拉貨量，可能比原目標少 10–20%（不過，這也可能部分是 Apple over-booking 的結果）。 ▌長鑫在招股書中提到，該公司的產能遠低於國內需求；加上全球記憶體供需持續失衡，因此即便 Apple 遊說成功並向長鑫採購 DRAM，也不會顯著降低成本與改善供需缺口。但在供需失衡持續擴大下，Apple 仍有必要爭取新的供應來源。 ▌這也解釋為何 Apple 這次會比 2022 年評估長江存儲更積極。當年的長江，是提供改善 NAND 成本的選項；而這次的長鑫，則是管理 DRAM 供需失衡風險的選項。 ▌Tim Cook 是少數能同時與美中政府維持良好關係的科技領袖，故此事最好趕在他卸任 CEO 前完成。即便最終未果，透過媒體披露後，也能讓市場留下「Apple 已盡力、無奈仍受限於美方政策」的印象，或能緩和市場對漲價與交期拉長的不滿。

如我先前所說，Apple可以想辦法安撫川普情緒，來暫時性轉移川普對iPhone關稅的注意力，看來Apple找到方法了。 Trump: Apple Is Going to Buy a Lot of Trump Gold Cards