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初日# 今日14:48 FIRST DAY 发售❤️
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关于握手会:将于2019年春季于上海举行,具体时间地点会再另行公告,请期待!
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🇫🇷🎒🌡️ Il offre 10 VENTILATEURS à une école en pleine CANICULE… mais ils sont retirés.
En 2019, à Orly, en pleine canicule, un père d'élève a dépensé près de 400€ pour offrir 10 VENTILATEURS NEUFS à l'école maternelle de sa fille, où les températures atteignaient près de 40 °C dans certaines classes. Après le passage d'un INSPECTEUR, l'établissement a été contraint de retirer les appareils.
L'inspection académique a expliqué que tout matériel installé dans une école doit RESPECTER une procédure d'homologation et être validé par la commune, même en cas d'urgence.
(Le Parisien)
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Japan's Prime Minister briefed her country with wet hair last night. Beijing would have detained the citizen who filmed it.
At 10:29 p.m. on Friday, a magnitude 5.6 earthquake struck Japan's Yamanashi Prefecture, registering a maximum seismic intensity of lower 6 in the town of Fujikawaguchiko at the foot of Mount Fuji. By 11:15 p.m. — forty-six minutes later — Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi was standing at the Prime Minister's Office briefing the nation. Crisis management center activated. Director-general-level emergency gathering team convened. Human life first. Information to the public, promptly and accurately.
She was also visibly straight out of the bath.
Hair still wet. No makeup. Takaichi posted on her own X account a short time later, in plain language: she had come directly from the bath without time to dry her hair or apply makeup, and apologized for her appearance. She did not have to volunteer that detail. She chose to.
That choice is the story.
Because somewhere about 1,700 miles to the west, operating under the same physics but a very different political philosophy, the first hour after a magnitude 5.6 earthquake would have looked nothing like this. It would not have been spent activating a crisis center, dispatching emergency teams, and putting the head of government in front of cameras to admit she had rushed straight out of the shower. It would have been spent deciding what to tell the public, what to delete, and which citizen with a camera to detain.
We know because we have watched it happen.
In Wuhan in early 2020, the doctors who tried to warn the world about a novel coronavirus were summoned by police and forced to sign confessions for "spreading rumors." The citizen journalists who filmed the morgues and the sealed apartment doors — Chen Qiushi, Fang Bin, Li Zehua — were disappeared by the state. Fang Bin would later be sentenced to three years in prison; he was held for the duration.
In Zhengzhou in July 2021, passengers drowned trapped in a flooded subway tunnel while state propaganda ran headlines about heroic rescue. When BBC correspondent Robin Brant asked the local government how a metro system less than a decade old could leave passengers to die on a platform, the Henan branch of the Communist Youth League posted his whereabouts to its 1.6 million followers and called for people to track him down. Death threats followed within hours.
In Hebei in August 2023, when the floodwaters from Typhoon Doksuri had to go somewhere, authorities diverted them away from Beijing and into Zhuozhou — and the Hebei provincial Party Secretary, Ni Yuefeng, publicly declared the province would "serve as a moat for the capital." Videos of the submerged villages disappeared from Chinese social media within hours.
And in Sichuan in 2008, after a magnitude 8.0 earthquake killed at least 5,335 schoolchildren in school buildings that collapsed while government offices nearby remained standing — what citizens named "tofu-dreg schoolhouses" — the writer Tan Zuoren tried to compile a list of the dead. He was sentenced to five years in prison. Huang Qi, the activist who tried to help the parents, got three years; in 2019, the Party gave him twelve more on state-secrets charges. He is still inside.
The pattern is not a series of accidents. It is a system. In the People's Republic of China, the function of the state in a disaster is not to serve the public. It is to protect the Party from the public.
Compare and contrast.
In Tokyo on Friday night, the head of government decided that telling the country what she knew, forty-six minutes after the ground stopped shaking, mattered more than how her hair looked. In Beijing under any equivalent scenario, the head of government would not be at a podium for hours, or days. The citizens with cameras would already be on a list.
Wet hair is not the real headline. Wet hair is the headline because of what it accidentally exposes: a democracy is a system that runs toward its citizens in the dark. A dictatorship is a system that hides from them.
Sanae Takaichi did not need to apologize for her hair. The Chinese Communist Party owes apologies it will never make, to families whose dead it never named.
ACI — Aric Chen | Insights
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There's no freeze on property tax.
There's no freeze on the wages paid to landscapers, plumbers, electricians, drywallers, flooring installers.
There's no freeze on the cost of lumber, copper, baseboard, quarter rounds, flashing, siding, window treatments.
There's no freeze on the wages paid to janitors or porters.
There's no freeze on utilities -- on electric, gas, water, sewer (building-paid utilities in hallways, lobbies, maintenance corridors; most buildings pay water and sewer for tenants).
There are currently 57,421 units sitting vacant in NYC because it's more cost-effective to leave them empty than it is to rent them out.
If you're wondering: "How that could be possible? Wouldn't making anything be better than making nothing?" -- the answer is no, because of the 2019 Housing Stability and Tenant Protection Act.
The HSTPA mandated a certain level of renovation for a vacant unit, but did not allow landlords to raise the rent enough to be able to recoup those costs.
If a long-term tenant moves out after decades, the apartment often requires $50,000 to $100,000 in lead abatement, new wiring, plumbing, and structural renovations.
Because the law heavily restricts how much of that cost can be passed to the next tenant.
The HSPTA eliminated the "vacancy bonus" (which allowed automatic 20% rent increases when a tenant left) and heavily capped Individual Apartment Improvements (IAIs).
This means landlords who want a renovation loan would be rejected by a bank, because the landlord would not be able to show that they could repay that loan.
Landlords who pay out-of-pocket would end up losing money, underperforming even what they could get by putting their money in a U.S. Treasury or gov't bond.
Therefore, it's more cost-effective to just leave the unit vacant.
That's why we have 57,421 vacant units across New York right now.
That number is about to get much worse.
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CZ said Binance offers "the best liquidity in the world" for consumer protection. He's right. But let's talk about WHERE that liquidity comes from.
It comes from retail getting rekt on Binance Launchpad.
Since 2019, Binance has launched 60+ projects. The narrative is always the same: Binance vets the project, lists it at launch, and retail piles in. Binance becomes the gatekeeper of "credibility." But here's the part CZ doesn't mention.
The Lazio Fan Token (LAZIO) launched October 2021 at $1.00 on Binance Launchpad. Private investors got in at $0.10. Binance announced it. Retail FOMO'd. Price hit $26.75 in 48 hours. Retail thought they were early to something Binance blessed.
Fast forward to today. LAZIO trades at $0.65. That's a 97.5% loss from the peak. Retail never stood a chance.
Alpine F1 Team (ALPINE)? Same blueprint. Launched Feb 2022 at $1.00. ATH $11.29. Current price: $0.42. Down 96%. The token was delisted from Bitget in Feb 2026 due to zero trading volume just dead weight.
But here's where it gets darker. Binance Launchpad isn't a bug. It's the business model.
1) Binance identifies a hype narrative (sports fan tokens, move-to-earn, etc)
2) Binance vets the project (gives it institutional credibility)
3) Private/VC investors get massive allocations at $0.001-$0.10
4) Launchpad subscription creates artificial scarcity ("hard cap" per user)
5) Retail buys at $1.00 thinking Binance wouldn't list garbage
6) Token pumps 10-100x in first week (retail euphoria)
7) Vesting schedule unlocks over 12 months (insiders exit)
8) Token declines 90-99% over next 24 months (retail holds bags)
9) Binance collected trading fees on every step of the decline
The liquidity CZ brags about? It's built on retail extraction.
Let's look at the pattern across Launchpad:
- STEPN (GMT): Launched at $0.01, peaked at $4.11 (411x), now bleeding lower
- Open Campus (EDU): 33x peak, now declining
- Space ID (ID): 41x peak, now sliding
- Hooked Protocol (HOOK): 41x peak, lost 90%+ since ATH
- Arkham (ARKM): Only 16x at peak in 2023 (falling returns as the grift gets known)
Notice the trend? Earlier projects had bigger peaks (because retail still believed). Recent ones are smaller. Why? Because the market is learning that Binance Launchpad = slow-motion rug pull.
But retail is trapped. Binance has 100M+ users. Binance has regulatory licenses. Binance is THE credibility anchor. When Binance lists something, retail thinks "this must be vetted, this must be safe." It's not. It's the opposite.
The vetting isn't for retail protection. It's for Binance's protection. Binance ensures the project won't implode in week 1 (that would hurt Binance's brand). But they don't care if it implodes in month 12. The damage is already extracted.
Here's what "consumer protection" actually means in the Binance universe:
- Deep liquidity pools (so Binance profits from every trade)
- IEO credibility (so retail trusts the listing)
- Vesting schedules published (so insiders can front-run the dumps)
- No accountability for post-launch performance (so Binance faces zero liability)
Retail thinks liquidity = safety. It's the opposite. High liquidity on a scarcity pump = maximum extraction efficiency.
Compare Binance Launchpad to actual consumer protection:
- SEC-regulated IPOs: Lock-up periods for insiders are EQUAL to retail
- Traditional venture: Downside protection, governance rights, legal recourse
- Binance Launchpad: Insiders get $0.10 pricing, retail gets $1.00, both tokens identical = wealth transfer complete
The 60+ projects Binance has launched since 2019 represent billions in retail wealth extraction. LAZIO alone = $26.75 ATH on a $1.00 launch = $26.75B market cap at peak. The fact it's now $0.65 doesn't erase the fact that retail lost 97% while Binance kept the trading fees.
CZ's statement about "the best liquidity in the world" is technically true. But it's like bragging about having the best highway system while running tolls that siphon wealth from drivers. The liquidity exists to serve extraction, not protection.
The real consumer protection would be:
- Identical vesting schedules for all token holders (no insiders first)
- Binding lock-up periods (prove you believe in your own project)
- Performance clawback clauses (if the token dumps 90%, insiders pay retail back)
- Regulatory disclosure (project financials, insider allocations, exit plans)
Binance offers none of this. Because that would kill the model. The model is:
- Build hype through Binance credibility
- Capture retail FOMO
- Execute insider exit
- Repeat
Liquidity is the tool. Extraction is the goal.
So when CZ says Binance offers "the best consumer protection," what he means is: Binance offers the most efficient wealth extraction vehicle the crypto world has ever seen. And the liquidity is so good, retail can watch their investment die in real-time on every refresh.
That's not protection. That's the grift, just wrapped in institutional packaging.
The Lazio Token didn't fail because it was a bad project. It failed because the Binance Launchpad model requires failure. Insiders need to exit. Retail needs to hold bags. Binance needs trading volume on the decline. The ecosystem needs constant new projects to pump and dump because the old ones are dead.
It's a machine. And it's working exactly as designed.
Binance isn't protecting users from bad liquidity. Binance is using liquidity to protect itself from accountability.
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【潘石屹张欣十年时间在美国亏掉一半身家】
中国赚钱美国花,跑路地产大佬潘石屹在美国混的怎样?
潘石屹夫妇从SOHO中国累计获得分红约133亿元;2014年至2019年间,累计出售资产回笼资金近300亿元。除掉相关税费,两人从中国市场上赚走近30至40亿美元。
2011年至2013年,潘石屹夫妇大举布局纽约核心商业地产,联合外资合计投入约27亿美元,拿下通用汽车大厦、公园大道广场、港务局长途巴士站办公楼等资产。据最新估值,这笔投资的资产估值下调了15%至25%,租金收入已无法覆盖贷款利息、房产税和运营成本。
虽然有意折价抛售却无人接盘,陷入了持有亏、卖了巨亏的两难境地,浮亏规模数亿美元。由于这些资产还没出手,具体亏损数目难以估算,目前大约在4至7亿美元。
2013年,张欣斥资2600万美元购入曼哈顿高端联排别墅,准备长期持有。2024年,这笔原计划长期持有的资产,由于持有成本太高,张欣以2380万美元将其出售。账面直亏220万美元,叠加11年的房产税、物业维护、保险等持有成本,实际总亏损约450至500万美元。
2019年前后,两口子效仿国内SOHO共享办公模式,在纽约、洛杉矶投入约2.8亿美元布局共享办公场地,并重金租赁装修。由于疫情后远程办公普及,门店空置率超30%,现在批量关店止损。本金已基本亏光,无有效回款,打底亏损3亿美元。
2022年,张欣主导跨界投资好莱坞电影《月球陷阱》,单笔投入3000万美元。这部投资1.5亿美元的电影,全球票房仅6700万美元,分账不到3000万美元。张欣在这笔投资中实际亏损超2800万美元,几乎全额打了水漂。
2025年,潘家两口子花费7600万美元在纽约上东区再度拿地抄底,试图弥补前期亏损。由于项目尚在规划初期,官方未公布具体数字。但以纽约高昂的建筑成本,在上东区要拆除旧建筑、重建精品豪华公寓,成本没有三五亿美元恐怕拿不下来。
去年新浪财经发布的数据显示,张欣身家约11亿美元,潘石屹约12亿美元,两口子加一起23亿美元,与巅峰时相比少了近一半。
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Tesla stock was basically flat from 2013 to 2019. $TSLA has always been a stock that makes most of its gains in short periods of time, and then stays relatively flat for a long periods of time. Some people aren't cut out for that.
In general, people focus too much on stock prices. Real pain was being all-in on Tesla stock in 2017/2018 and not knowing if the company would survive, while seeing constant short seller attacks and FUD. Or seeing the stock drop 75% from its peak in late 2021 to $101/share in early 2023.
While $TSLA is 24% off its all-time high right now, it doesn't even come close to one the all-time biggest drawdown. With robotaxis and humanoid robots in the pipeline, I'm certainly not bearish. These things might be taking longer to play out than initially expected, but they both have the potential to change the world. Hopefully we get a good progress report on the Q2 earnings call.
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与美国或一些亚洲国家不同,德国以及北欧许多住家没有安装空调。但随着炎热天气增加,情形正在发生改变。
欧洲大片地区,应对酷暑的方法还停留在:拉窗帘、开风扇、喝冰水。
美国能源部数据显示,约九成美国人家中有空调。但在欧洲,这一比例仅为约20%。不过,各国情况有所不同:南欧国家如西班牙,约半数家庭拥有空调。德国的这一比例则仅为6%。
仍存在对空调的抵触
在欧洲,夏季的极端热浪如今越来越频繁。2019-2024年,德国对空调以及降温设备的需求增长75%。
但尽管如此,欧洲仍存在对空调的抵触。欧洲供暖、通风、空调和制冷协会Eurovent副秘书长雷纳伯格(Stijn Renneboog)表示:“在社交媒体上传播的如何降温的小贴士中,我还能看到有建议说,最好不用空调。”
欧洲的老房子安空调是挑战
德国以及北欧许多住宅的设计,都以冬天保温节能为主旨,而非夏天如何能最凉快。
波士顿咨询集团2025年9月 的一篇行业分析中同时指出,在欧洲的一些老房子安装空调也是一个挑战。特别是欧洲一些历史悠久的城市,对于房屋翻新往往有“额外的监管条例或美观上的要求”。
此外,很多租户不被允许或不愿给出租屋安空调。在德国、丹麦、奥地利等国家,半数人口租房居住。这也是困难之一。
防暑降温是基本需求吗
一项欧盟范围内的调查显示,随着能源价格上涨,38%的受访者称,安装空调对他们来说太贵。
2020年,意大利研究者调查了全球变暖对于法国、西班牙、瑞典、荷兰等国家使用空调数量增加的影响,指出低收入群体在防暑降温方面更为不利。
雷纳伯格表示,冬季取暖被视为基本需求,但防暑降温则不然。
“降温仍经常被视为一种奢侈的享受。” 他补充说:但炎热已经构成严峻的公共卫生风险。“欧洲每年有数万个与炎热相关的死亡案例。”
欧洲对于空调的环境影响也有顾虑。
从全球来看,降温占到每年电力需求的约十分之一。而所使用的大部分电力仍来自高污染、高碳排放的化石燃料。此外,多项研究显示,空调的使用可能导致室外温度升高几度,形成恶性循环。
更环保的措施包括,对新建房屋采取专门的设计,能让空气在各个房间自由流通,以及使用减少热量滞留的材料等。
对城市规划而言,绿地、水体景观也有助于降温。智能空调——使用传感器和人工智能技术——可以提高能效四成以上,从而减少排放。
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莱斯利·格罗夫在2001年至2019年为爱泼斯坦工作,一直负责为其安排按摩预约。当被问及爱泼斯坦的通讯录中列有超过75名按摩师是否显得奇怪时,她做出了回应。
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