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我越来越觉得，预测市场真正有意思的地方，不是“预测”，而是把争议变成了一个可以持续验证的问题。 比如最近 BitMart 的争议，网上各种声音都有，但真正关键的问题其实就一个： 2026 年 12 月 31 日前，BitMart 会不会发布独立第三方审计的储备报告？ 现在 @ForesoGlobal 社区已经把这个问题放进了预测市场。 这和单纯看新闻、刷评论不太一样。 后续每出现一条新信息，市场概率都会重新定价。官方声明、用户反馈、审计报告，甚至没有报告本身，都可能影响大家的判断。 所以我更关注的不是现在概率是多少，而是： 接下来什么证据，能够真正让市场改变看法？ 如果预测市场越来越多地承载这种真实世界议题，它或许会变成一种新的信息发现机制。 @BitMartExchange @sheldonbitmart @vooeie @kingkksol @cz_binance @heyibinance @WuBlockchain @Protos @CoinDesk @PANewsCN @OdailyChina @zachxbt 市场👇 #Foreso# #BitMart# #PredictionMarkets#

BTC 15-Min Prediction Challenge Round 3 kicks off soon. 💰 $1,000 USDT Prize Pool 🎁 Daily Mystery Boxes 🏆 Leaderboard Rewards 📅 May 29, 0:00:00- June 4, 23:59:59 UTC 👇Get ready — starts in 8 hours! #Foreso# #BTC# #PredictionMarket#

In December 2015, during my first year at Stanford GSB, I chose to intern at a top hedge fund. Researching advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving, I saw a new growth opportunity for GPUs beyond gaming. The only stock I pitched during my internship was NVDA—then worth roughly $18 billion, trading around $0.80 a share, split-adjusted. The fund took a large position (and still hold today), and I bought some too. I didn’t hold it all the way to its peak, but I’m grateful of the returns from the investment. @JensenHuang has created tremendous value for shareholders. Pushing him out is a mistake. After 33 years building NVIDIA, his leadership is still central to its future. NVIDIA and the broader AI developer community still need his leadership and spirit of innovation. (Back then no AI to help on stock research, have to learn those terminologies in this old fashion…😂) Look at the impact Jensen has created to the world, unbelievable. Still can’t believe what just happened. We need a prediction market on this: when will Jensen be back?

1confirmation has invested in every Polymarket round ever and we keep doubling down. We are a seed stage fund and investing late stage is not our mandate. Here’s why we broke our rules: - There’s a 100+ year history of people wanting skin in the game on things like politics and culture and the time to accelerate that is now in an AI world where the biggest problem young people have is knowing what’s true. Everyone is becoming a trader/investor, and a product that converts that energy into better information and more truth is truly unique. - Polymarket is much more than sports and global. In the U.S. right now sports is all the rage. A better sportsbook is fine but it’s not the most enduring aspect of a prediction market business. Better information and more truth on politics, geopolitics and culture is the why and most young people you talk to IRL know that Polymarket is in a class of its own on this front even though that discourse here can get lost. - The business is leveling up. I’ve seen a lot over the past 6 years and it’s far from perfect but the exec team in place now is exceptional, the US product is best in class and the revenue is making new highs. I have not loved the messaging about a token at times bc it’s always best to underpromise and overdeliver by quietly delivering value to users. But the idea that a token is dead is foolish. - Shayne has a will to win like none other and is the most direct and transparent person I know. He’s just himself and authenticity wins. Posting here for transparency. Talk soon.

And yeah @fermah_xyz started with a problem that sits deep inside the ZK stack. Zero knowledge applications can prove that a computation was done correctly, but producing those proofs at scale takes serious infrastructure: specialised hardware, several proving systems, workload scheduling, and reliability and cost controls. A team building a ZK rollup, zkVM, bridge or coprocessor cannot simply ask for "a proof" and move on. Fermah's first answer was a universal proof generation layer. Provers with GPUs and other hardware supply capacity, applications that need proofs create the demand, and Fermah matches the two. That marketplace is now called Froben. The problem behind the proof Running this in production exposed something bigger. A proof is one step in a longer sequence. Something has to trigger the work, the work has to run, the result has to be verified, and then the result usually has to start the next action. Fermah's argument is that blockchains are good at recording state and weak at starting what happens next. Take a lending position that crosses its liquidation threshold. The chain records the fact, but nothing forces the liquidation. A keeper, bot or backend still has to notice the condition, build the transaction and submit it. Consensus settles what happened, and a human run service still decides what happens after. Fermah calls the missing piece protocol agency: a protocol's ability to act on a verifiable condition without depending on an outside operator. What Kernel does Kernel is Fermah's Protocol Agency Engine, and its pitch is short: Define. Execute. Attest. A developer defines a workflow, Kernel runs it, and the result is published onchain with a cryptographic proof. Three design choices matter here: -Typed nodes. Workflows are built from a library of verified building blocks such as HTTP calls, onchain reads, price feeds and math functions. The type system validates how they connect before anything runs. -Sandboxed execution. Workflows run in an isolated environment built for untrusted code, and the same inputs always produce the same output. - AI where it helps, code where it counts. Fermah says AI agents can compose workflows, but deterministic code executes them, with no LLM in the execution path. Kernel can work as an oracle too. A smart contract requests a workflow, Kernel runs it, and the contract receives the result with a proof that the workflow ran exactly as written. Froben and Flashcast Fermah did not walk away from ZK. Froben still runs, now on top of Kernel, and its paying customers include ZKsync Era and Abstract. In Froben, a workflow defines the proving pipeline and Kernel schedules the work across the prover fleet. Flashcast Social shows a different use of the same engine. A user posts a question, and within seconds it becomes a live prediction market. Kernel then runs the resolution workflow and settles the market automatically when the event happens, with no committee and no dispute window. Proof generation and market resolution have little in common on the surface. What they share is a condition that has to produce an action, and that is the workload Kernel is built around. Fermah also lists data aggregation, pricing oracles and cross chain coordination as things Kernel can run. Where agents fit Fermah's latest thinking extends this to autonomous software agents. An agent working onchain needs to find available actions, check whether it is allowed to run them, pay, execute, and use the output as the input to its next step. Fermah describes this as action manifests, which make actions machine readable across discovery, eligibility, execution, payment and output. The shift in one line The old question was how to generate ZK proofs efficiently at scale. The new one is how a protocol can turn a verifiable condition into a complete, executable sequence. Proving is still part of the system, but it is now one workload among several that Kernel coordinates.

Meet the first 4 projects joining PredictTime PitchDay On October 12 at 4:00 PM UTC, they’ll take the stage at our first PitchDay to present what they’re building, face questions from the judges, and compete for a place in the Super Final @tenbips a research lab tackling one of the most overlooked risks in prediction markets: settlement risk. 10bips is building a way to quantify how likely a market is to settle cleanly - before it actually resolves @Polydict_trade an AI layer for prediction markets and perps. Polydict already brings trading to web, Telegram, and Farcaster, and is building infrastructure that will allow AI agents to read markets, analyze them, and trade securely on behalf of users @preddytrade a prediction market trading interface built around fast discovery and execution. The platform already covers multiple market categories, combos, trader tools, and leveraged Polymarket trading @bagel_win a mobile-first prediction market app designed to make predicting simpler, more social, and more engaging. Users can explore and trade markets across sports, esports, crypto, and trending events directly from mobile 4 projects. One stage Live on X / YouTube

It’s almost time for #BNBSG# 🇸🇬 The gathering point for the people shaping the future of onchain, powered by: 🔸 @fourdotmemezh - Full-stack launchpad 🔸 @bpn_network - Multi-stablecoin liquidity ecosystem 🔸 @Aster_DEX - Next-gen perp DEX 🔸 @brevis_zk - Infinite compute layer 🔸 @UnitasLabs - Yield generation layer 🔸 @Hertzflow_xyz - World leverage engine 🔸 @NeoSoulAI - Market infrastructure for the agent economy 🔸 @UTechStables - Next-gen stablecoin to unify liquidity 🔸 @VenusProtocol - Universal money markets 🔸 @lista_dao - Intelligence-powered liquidity network 🔸 @awscloud - Cloud computing platform 🔸 @predictdotfun - Prediction market platform Secure your spot on Oct 7:

More updates coming in the next 2–3 hours. We’re shipping nonstop today and most importantly, the prediction market goes live today. ethereum:0x3c3959052f60cbddc498b384958841b718112353 is here to build on top of ethereum:0x4e67db19044549ff420860834c91b45bad298722 . ethereum:0x4e67db19044549ff420860834c91b45bad298722 is the currency. ethereum:0x3c3959052f60cbddc498b384958841b718112353 is the network. Silverchat is here to stay.

📰 This week: Bessent boosted Treasury buybacks, #Bitcoin# ripped toward $70K on a massive short squeeze, Trump sent HYPE surging, the CFTC seated prediction-market leaders on its advisory panel and Vaneck said $BTC’s correction may be nearing an end. Here's the Weekly Recap🧵👇

这几天推特上都在给火币提意见，孙哥更是直接当起了“一线客服小孙”。怪不得我今天出入金都顺畅了不少，看来这波确实听劝。 大家提得比较多的是交易深度、APP 卡不卡、手续费高不高这些基础体验。但孙哥这只是作为头部交易所做基础的“基建”呀～😂 作为和火币有深度合作的Kol我对火币的要求和建议远不止这些～请孙哥再看一看 @justinsuntron 我觉得火币下一阶段可以考虑的，不只是把交易所做得更好用，而是把它逐渐做成一个全球资产发现和交易平台。 现在用户的投资需求已经明显不只是 Crypto 了。 币、股票、黄金、外汇、指数、利率，甚至美国大选、降息概率、热门体育赛事、科技产品发布，这些东西本质上都在争夺同一批用户的注意力和资金。 所以我觉得有几个方向很值得做。 第一，增加“预测”这个产品层。 现在 Prediction Market 越来越像一个独立资产类别。 除了政治事件，实际上可以覆盖： 美联储是否降息、BTC 能否突破某个价格、某家公司财报能否超预期、某款产品什么时候发布、体育赛事、宏观数据甚至 Crypto 行业重大事件。 交易所本身就拥有大量交易用户，如果把“事件”也变成一种可交易资产，用户每天打开火币看的就不只是 BTC 涨没涨，而是： 今天全世界有哪些值得交易的事情正在发生？ 这会明显增加平台的内容密度和用户停留时间。 第二，TradFi 不应该只是增加几个股票和黄金交易对，而应该把资产介绍做深。 比如用户点开 NVDA，不应该只看到一根 K 线。 至少可以同时看到： 公司主营业务、估值、市值、PE、营收、利润、下一次财报时间、历史财报表现、分析师预期、盘前盘后波动，以及相关新闻和重要事件。 黄金可以显示实际利率、美元指数、央行购金等核心影响因素。 原油可以展示库存、OPEC 会议、供需变化。 外汇可以展示央行利率、通胀、非农等宏观数据。 Crypto 其实也一样。 Token 页面除了价格，可以增加： FDV、市值、解锁、流通比例、融资情况、链上数据、收入、代币用途和近期催化剂。 这样用户进入火币以后，不只是“交易一个代码”，而是在真正理解自己交易的是什么资产。 第三，我非常建议把“交易成本”做得更透明。 很多普通用户其实根本不知道自己一笔交易到底付了多少钱。 不仅仅是手续费，还有： Spread（买卖价差）、Funding Rate、借贷利率、滑点、永续和现货价差、不同平台之间的价格差。 火币完全可以给每个资产增加一个 Trading Cost / Market Quality 页面。 直接告诉用户： 当前 Spread 多大 盘口深度多少 买入 1 万 / 10 万 / 100 万 USDT 的预计滑点 Funding Rate 是多少 过去 24H 平均 Funding 火币价格和其他主要市场的价差 实际完成一笔交易预计成本是多少 这个功能看起来很小，但对专业交易者非常有价值。 因为真正专业的交易平台，不能只展示“价格”，还应该展示交易这个价格的成本。 第四，把“全球资产”真正放在一个账户体系里比较。 比如我今天有 10 万 USDT。 系统可以让我很直观地比较： BTC 过去一年收益和波动 纳斯达克收益 黄金收益 美债收益率 美元理财收益 ETH Staking 收益 进一步甚至可以加入相关性、最大回撤、波动率。 这时候火币就开始从 Exchange 变成一个真正意义上的 Global Asset Terminal。 我甚至觉得以后首页可以不只是： BTC / ETH / 涨幅榜 / 新币榜 而是增加： Markets Crypto / Stocks / Commodities / FX / Prediction Events 今天的重要财报 美联储会议 CPI / 非农 Token Unlock 重大 Crypto 事件 Opportunities 高 Funding 异常价差 高波动资产 预测市场热门事件 收益机会 这样用户每天打开火币，第一件事情不是单纯“我要买什么币”，而是： 今天全球市场有什么机会？ 我觉得这是火币未来产品上一个很大的想象空间。 过去交易所竞争的是： 谁的币多、谁手续费低、谁合约好用。 未来可能竞争的是： 谁能成为用户看全球资产、研究全球资产、交易全球资产的第一入口。 如果火币能够把 Crypto、TradFi、Prediction、Research 和 AI 真正串起来，我觉得这个产品定位会比单纯做一家 CEX 有意思得多。 我甚至会建议 HTX 把每一个资产详情页重新设计成四层： Price → Research → Cost → Event。 也就是先告诉用户“多少钱”，再告诉用户“它是什么、为什么涨跌”，然后告诉用户“交易它要付多少钱”，最后告诉用户“接下来什么事情可能让它波动”。 比如 NVDA 页面直接变成： $NVDA 价格 → 公司介绍 → 财报 → 市场预期 → 下一次财报 → IV/波动率 → HTX Spread → 手续费 → 隔夜/资金成本 → 相关新闻 → Prediction：本季度营收是否 Beat Estimates。 这样研究、交易、预测本身就是一条完整链路。 这其实比“增加股票交易”高级很多。因为交易品种很容易复制，但围绕资产建立的信息基础设施和决策工具，才更容易产生用户粘性。 当然，这些都是站在一个长期用户和产品使用者角度的一些想法。 交易深度、手续费、系统稳定性决定的是用户愿不愿意来，但我觉得未来真正决定用户愿不愿意留下来的，是这里有没有足够多值得交易的资产、足够好的信息，以及持续发现机会的能力。 Crypto、股票、黄金、外汇、预测市场，本质上正在逐渐打破边界。用户要的可能也不再是五六个不同的 App，而是一个账户，就能看懂全球市场、发现机会并完成交易。 火币已经走了 13 年，下一阶段如果只是做一家更好的 Crypto 交易所，我觉得还不够。 能不能从 Crypto Exchange 再往前走一步，成为 Global Asset & Prediction Platform，甚至成为用户进入全球金融市场的第一入口，这可能才是更值得想象的方向。 以上，一点产品建议。 剩下的就交给一线客服小孙了 @justinsuntron 😂 实在不行，可以聘请我作为产品顾问～～ @justinsuntron @HTX_Molly @HuobiGlobal #Tronecostar#