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The Narrative Collapsed and Ethereum Is Cheap. Is ETH finally a buy? The Ethereum options market is seeing unusually large put buying activity, with the $1,800 and $1,900 strikes attracting flows running approximately five times above normal levels. Since issuing our high-conviction short on May 16, 2026, Ethereum has declined 10%. But our bearish thesis predates that call. On October 31, 2025, with ETH trading at $3,800, we identified Ethereum as the smarter hedge. Prices have since fallen 47% (see also our interview from November). The thesis was always fundamental. The market is simply catching up. In early April 2026, with Ethereum trading near $2,000, we revisited our fundamental view, examining whether the conditions for a buy had emerged and what the real structural issues were. Today, we return to that question. Ethereum is cheap. But cheap is not the same as a buying opportunity. Fundamentals ultimately determine price; marketing narratives can only sustain a divergence for so long before reality reasserts itself. We have seen that cycle play out once already. So what has changed? Let us approach Ethereum from a different angle entirely. See our full report below.

😐 $MSTR 四个月内必有人大亏？ Arca CIO Jeff Dorman 发文拆解 MicroStrategy MSTR 当前的资本结构困境。 MSTR 发行数十亿美元优先股时，逻辑建立在 BTC 即将大涨的预期上，计划用未来 BTC 收益覆盖每年 15 亿美元的股息支出。BTC 没走出预期行情后，Saylor 融股 20 亿美元稳住了短期兑付压力，买到约 2 年缓冲期。 但随后他用这笔现金折价回购了 2029 年到期的零息债券，而不是留着备付股息。 Dorman 认为这个选择很难解释：现金流已经吃紧，主动提前还一笔不需要付利息的债，逻辑在哪里？ 他判断：MSTR、BTC 持有人、优先股持有人，三方利益第一次真正对立，4 个月内必有一方承受重损。 你怎么看？ 👀

We've raised $65 billion in Series H funding at a $965 billion post-money valuation, led by @AltimeterCap, Dragoneer, @Greenoaks, and @sequoia. This investment will help us advance our research and expand our capacity to meet growing demand for Claude.