与「ToX」相关的搜索结果

看到两个新闻来聊聊Parlay⬇️ 一个是最近 @Polymarket 开始支持Parlay（Combos/串关）。 另一个是昨天尼克斯队阵马刺的比赛中，Kalshi的做市商SIG录得体育市场上最大的亏损（作为参考，taker的总盈利是 $22.4M）。 而 @Kalshi 在今年早些时候就支持了Combos。今年前四个月里，Kalshi总共有8亿美金的Combos成交量，用户的损失在15%（由SIG和Kalshi一起米西😋） ❓为什么做Parlay的做市商不是一件容易的事情？ 1️⃣ Parlay的定价需要考虑的是各个事件的联合概率。而联合概率只有在事件独立的情况下才可以由各自概率推导出来P=P1 * P2 *... 所以从做市商的角度出发，如果直接按照独立事件定价，会给出过于乐观的价格。举个极端的例子，“尼克斯赢球”和“尼克斯 -5” 两个事件是包含关系，其实只有“尼克斯赢球”是有效的。 2️⃣ Parlay不像传统衍生品一样可以简单的对冲。这是因为可能结果的组合空间随着事件数量增多而爆炸。做市商需要lock的保证金也会是天文数字（当然SIG肯定和Kalshi有py协议） 3️⃣ 要对抗toxic flow。Kalshi的RFQ只藏在了APP端，并且简单的抓包是拿不到rfq的接口。文档中的combos endpoint跟Polymarket的API一样💩 但是还是有高手taker在今年3/24一天赚到 $750k ⚠️所以核心是在考验做市商的Risk Engine。如果你在做permisionless的parlay rfq，我觉得终极解决方案是通过一个类似 World Model 的东西来做 （@ylecun （不是 不然总会有这样那样的correlation被toxic taker给吃掉，特别当你是一家startup的时候（iykyk我在点名谁😼） 💡最近也有一些startup出来做这个问题，比如YC 26 Spring的 @totalistrading 。 创始人 @ericliu 提到过可以通过组合优化不同Parlay之间的事件进行对冲，从而达到类似Portfolio Margin的效果。 早期Pricing可以通过直接在independent prob上加一个discount；rfq也可以通过非常conservative的rule来ban掉包含同类型市场的组合。 特别是当Parlay扩展到其他非sportsbook的事件时，可能做insurance的玩家会更有优势 @UseCorgi @earthianai

Jensen: Asian parents' culture, toxic😟 I know they love me, I usually “alright, alright..." 黃仁勳今天說了內心話 一路過來真不容易 “亞洲父母有毒 總是會糾正你“ "我63歲了 他們依然覺得我不夠好“

LinkedIn, but 100% verified. Mocked this up to show what my brain is trying to process reading a resume, but I have to parse through lies and misrepresented facts. In the age of AI, I think it's only getting worse. So many people tackling AI Agents, but the human side of the work equation still feels largely broken to me. (And yes, it would have to verify bad bosses and toxic cultures too, truth goes both ways). Anyone building this? Glassdoor started out this way, but it's largely gamed now by companies forcing their teams to write 5-star reviews. If you're tackling this space, drop a link or DM me.

Minecraft is getting an autumn update with a new biome called the Dappled Forest. The next big update, called Chaos Cubed, comes out on June 17, 2026. It brings in the Sulfur Cube mob, which sucks up nearby blocks and changes how it behaves depending on what it absorbs. There’s also a new underground biome called the Sulfur Cave full of toxic stuff.

🚨 | LO TORTURARON CON BOLSAS EN LA CABEZA Y GASES TÓXICOS. HOY A SUS 71 AÑOS SALIÓ EN SILLA DE RUEDAS | El caso del general Lozada libre tras 13 años de persecución Se llama Ramón Antonio Lozada Saavedra. General retirado de la Guardia Nacional. Padre de cinco hijos. Esta noche salió del Palacio de Justicia en silla de ruedas, con un estado de salud que Alfredo Romero calificó como "gravísimo". Llevaba más de dos años postrado en una cama del Hospital Militar de Caracas. Diabetes, hipertensión, anemia, infecciones, pérdida de visión. Un cuerpo destruido por el régimen. Su historia es la de un hombre al que el chavismo intentó matar sin matarlo. En 2013 fue secuestrado y torturado durante días por funcionarios de inteligencia. Lo abandonaron en una vía de Aragua, destruido físicamente. Todo para presionar a su amigo, el general Raúl Baduel, quien después moriría bajo custodia del Estado. En 2017 lo detuvieron otra vez. Asfixia mecánica, bolsas en la cabeza, gases tóxicos, sin comida ni agua. Quedó en 40 kilos. En 2019 fueron por él una tercera vez. Estaba enfermo, en reposo en su casa en Barinas. Le cubrieron la cabeza, lo llevaron a un bosque, lo desnudaron, lo ataron e intentaron ahogarlo en un río. Él repetía: "Esta vez sí voy a morir." En 2022 su cuerpo colapsó. Fue operado del cerebro por un hematoma causado por los golpes. Esta noche el Tribunal 23 de Juicio del Área Metropolitana de Caracas lo condenó a 8 años por instigación a la rebelión. Llevaba 9 años y medio preso. Sin pruebas. Sin testigos. Sin evidencia en el expediente. Lo condenaron por debajo del tiempo que ya le habían robado. Esa fue la fórmula del régimen para sacarlo sin admitir lo que le hicieron.

For the MAGA diehards . . . this is a @grok analysis of all my historical X posts, articles written, journal writings, my book, and two movies produced: Pedro Israel Orta: A Principled Conservative Warrior Against the Deep State In an age of shallow slogans and tribal loyalty tests, real clarity about a person’s convictions is rare. Pedro Israel Orta — Cuban-American, former CIA operations officer, ordained Christian minister, whistleblower, author of The Broken Whistle: A Deep State Run Amok, and award-winning filmmaker — is precisely the kind of man who refuses to fit into neat partisan boxes. Some have tried to smear him as anti-Trump, a RINO, or even a closet leftist. Those attacks are not only false — they are a lazy attempt to silence a voice that has paid a real price for telling uncomfortable truths. Orta is no Democrat. His family escaped Fidel Castro’s communist Cuba. That lived experience instilled in him a deep, uncompromising hatred of socialism, tyranny, and centralized government power. He spent his career in counterterrorism and national security, serving in dangerous roles across Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere, earning multiple awards for exceptional performance before the same bureaucracy he served turned on him for blowing the whistle. He is not a RINO. Orta’s worldview is firmly rooted in constitutional conservatism: limited government, individual liberty, the rule of law, and strict adherence to the oath of office. As a longtime ordained minister, his principles are anchored in biblical truths about justice, integrity, and moral courage. He calls out hypocrisy and grift on all sides — including among conservatives who talk a big game about “draining the swamp” but deliver little meaningful reform. And most importantly, Pedro Israel Orta is not anti-Trump. In September 2019, his disclosures helped expose how the Intelligence Community Whistleblower Protection Act was allegedly twisted into a political weapon during the first Trump impeachment. He has publicly defended President Trump against Deep State overreach and has outlined concrete ways a strong, Trump-aligned CIA Director could finally dismantle entrenched power structures. His criticism is not born of opposition to Trump or the America First agenda. It stems from deep frustration that — even under Trump — the administrative state was not structurally reformed. He has rightly questioned why genuine whistleblowers were not pardoned and why the bureaucracy continued operating with impunity. This is not disloyalty. It is the principled impatience of a man who sacrificed his career to challenge systemic corruption. Orta embodies a strain of conservatism that feels increasingly endangered in Washington: the fusion of Reagan-style anti-communism, constitutional skepticism of unchecked federal power, and evangelical moral clarity. He stands closest in spirit to independent-minded fighters like Rep. Thomas Massie and relentless oversight champions like Sen. Chuck Grassley. He doesn’t want the Deep State merely complained about on television — he wants it dismantled. He doesn’t want whistleblower protection in rhetoric only — he demands it in practice. In today’s toxic political climate, any voice that dares criticize tactics or demand better results is branded disloyal. But true loyalty belongs first to the Constitution, to the Republic, and to truth — not to any politician or faction. Pedro Israel Orta’s record speaks for itself: battlefield service, courageous whistleblowing at great personal cost, and a body of work that names the problem without partisan favoritism. Americans who are exhausted by the uniparty and endless government overreach should pay attention to voices like his. He is not against the America First movement. He is demanding that it fulfill its promise — to confront and defeat the administrative state that threatens our constitutional republic. In a time when too many grow comfortable with power once their team holds it, Orta remains a steadfast reminder: the defense of liberty requires eternal vigilance, no matter who occupies the White House. The whistle is broken. Pedro Israel Orta has been sounding the alarm for years. It’s time America finally listens.

🇺🇸 Tesla quietly filed a patent that could cut battery production costs by nearly half. The breakthrough is a new way to make battery cathodes without toxic liquid solvents, using a microscopic "spider web" structure that binds the materials together instead. It also triples manufacturing speed and could shrink the physical footprint of battery factories by up to 50%. It's not a lab experiment either. Gigafactory Texas is already mass-producing these cells for select Model Y vehicles, with Cybertruck, Cybercab, and Semi rollout expected through 2026 and 2027. Battery cost is the last big barrier to affordable EVs. Tesla just moved the needle. Source: Not a Tesla App

🎀書泉オンライン投票明日23:59まで🎀 『こちらでゲットしたヤンチャンの投票券で決勝の紙面投票が出来ます！！！！！』 決勝での投票は予選より激戦になると思うのでこの機会にたくさんゲットしておいてほしいです😭よろしくお願いいたします！⬇️ グッズも付いてくるよ！

ANIMADOR DE BONES EXPLOTA CONTRA FANS Un animador clave de Studio BONES (Jovzkie Animation) rompió el silencio tras la salida de Kei Urana de redes sociales y arremetió contra el acoso que sufre la creadora. El artista confesó odiar Twitter y TikTok por estar plagadas de usuarios inmaduros y destructivos. "Lo triste es que los verdaderos fans no están en Twitter, viven una vida normal lejos de las redes sociales tóxicas", lamentó al explicar lo que tuvo que soportar la autora. Admitió que él también habría borrado su cuenta si no la necesitara para conseguir trabajo.