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$SIVE Q1 2026 컨퍼런스콜 확인 후 결론. 나는 아직 매도할 이유를 찾지 못했다. 물론 Q1 숫자만 보면 좋다고 말하기 어렵다. 매출은 전년 대비 감소했고, AEBITDA도 적자였다. 미국 정부 셧다운, 방산 예산 승인 지연, FX 역풍으로 Q1/Q2 일부 매출이 H2 2026으로 밀렸다는 회사 설명도 확인됐다. 그래서 단기 실적만 보면 실망할 수 있다. 하지만 이번 발표에서 중요한 건 Q1 숫자 자체가 아니라, 2026~2027년 상업화 전환 경로가 더 구체화됐다는 점이라고 본다. 가장 중요한 숫자는 Opportunity Pipeline 799M USD. 2025년 말 453M USD에서 2026년 5월 799M USD까지 증가. 연초 대비 +77%. 물론 이건 확정 매출도 아니고, backlog도 아니고, 수주잔고도 아니다. 정확히는 Opportunity Pipeline이다. 즉 “확보한 매출”이 아니라 “잠재 기회”다. 그래도 SIVE 같은 소형 회사 입장에서는 회사 체급 자체를 바꿀 수 있는 규모의 잠재 기회라고 본다. 내가 이번 자료에서 좋게 본 포인트는 크게 3개다. 첫째, AI Datacenter Optics. Jabil과의 1.6T LRO pluggable transceiver 협력은 중요하다. Jabil은 FY2026 매출 전망 34B USD 규모의 글로벌 제조·공급망 기업이고, Sivers DFB laser를 사용한 1.6T LRO module 개발 계획이 공식 발표됐다. 이건 Sivers laser technology가 AI datacenter optical interconnect 시장에서 검증받는 중요한 단계라고 본다. 다만 아직 production order, volume ramp, revenue contribution은 발표되지 않았다. 여기서 고객 주문으로 전환되는지가 핵심이다. 둘째, SATCOM / Space / Defense. York Space의 ALL SPACE 인수는 Sivers 입장에서 긍정적인 이벤트로 보인다. Sivers는 York이 Space Development Agency와 강한 연관을 가진다고 설명했고, SATCOM 쪽에서 2027 ramp를 위한 new production orders imminent라는 표현도 사용했다. 이 문구는 긍정적이다. 하지만 아직 order won은 아니다. 현재 상태는 order expected에 가깝다. 셋째, DoD / CHIPS Act / Electronic Warfare. EW STAR 프로그램 관련 US CHIPS Act Year 2 funding 6.6M USD도 확보했다. Year 1의 5.6M USD보다 약 18% 높은 규모다. BAE Systems, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Columbia University와 연결된 전자전 프로그램이라는 점도 중요하다. 단기 매출 크기보다 중요한 건, Sivers 기술이 미국 방산 생태계 안에서 계속 검증되고 있다는 점이라고 본다. 결국 내가 보는 SIVE의 핵심 구조는 이거다. Pipeline → Order Order → Product Revenue Product Revenue → Margin Margin → Cash Flow 아직 완성된 실적주는 아니다. 하지만 이제 완전히 막연한 스토리주라고 보기도 어렵다. Jabil 1.6T AI datacenter lasers SATCOM production order 기대 Tachyon 28GHz production PO 60GHz development partnership Tier-1 telco FWA Automotive / Industrial LiDAR ramp CHIPS Act Year 2 funding 이렇게 여러 전환 포인트가 동시에 보이기 시작했다. 내가 중요하게 보는 건 SIVE thesis가 단일 제품 하나에만 걸린 구조가 아니라는 점이다. AI optics SATCOM FWA LiDAR Defense 여러 옵션 중 몇 개만 실제 주문과 매출로 연결돼도 회사 체급이 달라질 수 있다. 물론 리스크는 분명하다. 799M USD pipeline은 계약이 아니다. Jabil 매출은 아직 없다. SATCOM 주문도 아직 공시되지 않았다. Convertible facility 때문에 희석 가능성도 남아 있다. Nasdaq New York dual listing도 아직 검토 단계일 뿐이다. 그래서 앞으로 봐야 할 것은 네 가지다. SATCOM 실제 production order Jabil 협력의 customer order 전환 H2 2026 방산 매출 회복 2027 product revenue ramp 이 네 가지가 숫자로 확인되면 SIVE thesis는 훨씬 강해진다. 반대로 지연이 반복되면 시장은 799M USD pipeline을 점점 할인해서 볼 것이다. 그래도 현재 확인된 사실 기준으로는, 나는 아직 $SIVE를 매도할 이유를 찾지 못했다. 단기 실적주는 아니다. AI optics / SATCOM / DoD 슈퍼사이클에 걸린 고위험·고수익 상업화 콜옵션에 가깝다. 내 기준에서 SIVE thesis는 아직 살아 있다. 개인 기록. 투자 조언 아님.

🇺🇸 美国无人机：国家安全战略的新高度 当前，无人机技术已正式上升为美国的国家安全首要任务。 以下是该领域核心生态系统的深度梳理： ⚔️ 军事与国防 (Military & Defense) $ONDS Ondas $AVEX AEVEX $KTOS Kratos $RCAT Red Cat $AVAV AeroVironment $AIRO AIRO $PRZO ParaZero 💼 商业应用 (Commercial) $UMAC Unusual Machines 👁️ 传感器技术 (Sensors) $TDY Teledyne $ZENA ZenaTech $HON Honeywell 💻 软件系统 (Software) $PDYN Palladyne $SWMR Swarmer 📦 物流配送 (Delivery) $AMZN Amazon ⚡ 电动垂直起降 (eVTOL) $ACHR Archer $JOBY Joby 🌾 农业应用 (Agriculture) $TRMB Trimble $UAVS AgEagle 🚀 工业航空航天与国防巨头 (Industrial Aerospace and Defense) $LMT Lockheed Martin $NOC Northrop Grumman $BA Boeing $RTX Raytheon $LHX L3Harris $HO Thales $LDO Leonardo $TXT Textron DYOR.

The CIA’s Post-War Vassalization of Japan Until 1941, Japan carried out these crimes against humanity with the assistance of the United States and Britain. And the pro-Kuomintang China Lobby inside the United States and the Wisemen (John J. McCloy, Dean Acheson, Averell Harriman, etc.) prevented the Roosevelt Administration from even engaging with the Communist Party of China led by Mao Zedong. This was despite the fact that General Joseph Stilwell, Colonel David Barrett, and John S. Service described the People’s Liberation Army as the most effective fighting force against the Japanese Imperial Army, as opposed to Chiang Kai Shek who was more concerned with repressing internal opponents and had zero interest in uniting with the Communist Party to fight against the Japanese occupation, despite the support for a united front from Mao and Stilwell. That year though, the US, Britain and the Netherlands finally decided to take action against Japan for its imperial aggression in China and the Asian continent, imposing crushing oil embargo. It was on that basis that Japan attacked Pearl Harbor, bringing the United States into World War II. However, after World War II, John J. McCloy became the President of the World Bank and decided that the new strategy was to once again build up Japan as an opponent to China and the Soviet Union. According to Washington and the US Treasury, the policy was supposed to be that all Asian countries are subservient to a new Japanese empire that was really just a colony of the US. And the role of this new US-led Asian order is that all countries on the continent were to export raw materials to Japan so that they can be turned into manufactured goods. This strongly differed from the approach of US President Ulysses S. Grant who toured Asia after leaving office and advocated for China to lead the way on the continent’s industrial and commercial development. He further emphasized a US-China relationship that is based on mutual respect and explicitly denounced European colonialism. And now newly declassified JFK Files released by the Trump Administration reveal how Japan, through the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, became a permanent US vassal during the Cold War with CIA funding. One document in particular from March 1996 reveals that Washington and Tokyo were still working overtime to hide the existence of the CIA’s Tokyo Station. And their reasoning was the protect this notion that Washington created that Japan was a sovereign state. The US State Department memo was titled “Official Acknowledgement of Tokyo Station” and it shows former US Vice President turned Ambassador to Japan Walter Mondale, along with Japanese officials in Tokyo, in full damage-control mode. Two years before, the New York Times wrote a report exposing secret CIA funding for Japan’s ruling right-wing Liberal Democratic Party during the 1950s and 1960s. Their fear was that if they confirmed the CIA’s presence in Tokyo, it would re-ignite the scandal by confirming the allegations in the NYT’s report. Then-Japanese Foreign Affairs Minister Yohei Kono warned Mondale to keep it secret because the official confirmation would hurt the LDP far more than the NYT’s allegations and threaten the entire post-war security framework between the Washington and Tokyo because it would expose Japan as nothing more than an imperial colony dependent on the United States. Kono had previously claimed, in response to NYT’s allegations, that Japan had “no knowledge” of any organized CIA presence inside the country.

🇺🇸🇯🇵🇰🇷⚔️🇨🇳🇰🇵🧵 HOW THE UNITED STATES TURNED JAPAN AND SOUTH KOREA INTO IMPERIAL COLONIES AS PART OF ITS COLD WAR AGAINST CHINA AND THE DPRK American policy in the Asia-Pacific has always been centered in building up Japan’s industry and leveraging Tokyo’s power at the expense of the economic independence of other country’s in the region. This doctrine goes all the way back to the early 20th century as Theodore Roosevelt committed the United States to the establishment of a global empire and JP Morgan created a monopoly over large sectors of the American economy in the aftermath of the Panic of 1907. The Meiji Restoration, which established the Empire of Japan, brought industrialization and modernization to the Japanese economy. However, this was mostly done on the backs of foreign loans and had been a continuation of work already theorized in China under Sun Yat Sen, whose Three Principles (Nationalism, Democracy, People’s Livelihood) inspire Chinese socialism today and were based on the state-led economic frameworks of Alexander Hamilton and Abraham Lincoln. Sun himself was educated in Hawaii by protégés of Lincoln. And it ultimately led to this notion among leaders in Tokyo that Japan is now becoming a partner of the Anglo-American Empire. A major reason why this was is because Theodore Roosevelt agreed in the Taft-Katsura Agreement that the United States would give Japan control over the Korean Peninsula if they did not interfere with Washington’s violent seizure of the Philippines. However, what Tokyo didn’t notice at first is that they were not becoming a regional empire but a proxy of American imperialism. From there, the groundwork was set for Japan’s wars of mass genocide against the people of China, Korea, Russia and across the Asian continent. After its war with Russia in 1905, Tokyo fully annexed Korea in 1910, which would then be used as a launching pad for their wars against China. The Japanese previously launched a failed war against China in 1894, after which European colonial empires set up spheres of influence as part of the Century of Humiliation. And then in 1931 and 1937, as a result of false flag incidents staged by the Japanese Kwantung Army along the South Manchuria Railway in Mukden and the Marco Polo Bridge near Beijing, Japan launched the Asia-Pacific Theatre of World War II waging mass genocide and engaging in sexual exploitation against the people of China, Korea and across Asia. Unit 731 was established in Manchuria under the command of Dr. Shiro Ishii and with the approval of the puppet dictatorship in Japanese-occupied Manchuria led by former Emperor of the Qing Dynasty Puyi. 731 carried out some of the most cruel and tortuous human experimentations against civilian victims, including infecting prisoners with deadly diseases and amputating their limbs, conducting vivisection and organ harvesting, suffocating victims and hypobaric chambers and exposing prisoners to chemical, explosive and biological weapons. Even more outrageous is the fact that Ishii escaped prosecution after the US granted him immunity in exchange for research from Unit 731. And some of that research was used by the CIA for Project MKUltra.

Profits of China's major industrial firms increased 18.2 percent year on year during the January-April period, surpassing a rise of 15.5 percent in the first quarter, official data showed Wednesday. #DataTellsChina# #ChinaEconomy#

Industrial infrastructure was never designed for machine-speed accountability Most operational systems were built for internal coordination, not for continuous verification across global supply chains, compliance environments, and multi-party ecosystems. That creates friction everywhere. A maintenance record may exist in one system. An inspection report may exist in another. Lifecycle history may be incomplete. Verification may depend entirely on manual review. As industries become more interconnected, these gaps become harder to manage. Because operational certainty becomes difficult to scale. The future industrial economy will increasingly depend on infrastructure capable of answering simple but critical questions: Did the operation actually happen? Was the procedure followed correctly? Can the evidence be independently verified? Can operational history remain trustworthy over time? These are infrastructure problems. At ACTUM, we believe industrial systems need a stronger verification layer built around real-world operational accountability. Proof of Human Action (POHA) is designed to help bridge physical industrial activity with auditable digital evidence. Because the next era of industrial infrastructure will depend not only on automation.

#CEIndex# Profits of China's major industrial firms increased 18.2 percent year on year during the January-April period, surpassing a rise of 15.5 percent in the first quarter, official data showed Wednesday.

China’s #industrial# profits surged 24.7% in April, the fastest growth in over two years. Despite economic headwinds, the industrial sector is showing serious resilience.

Xinhua: "Profits of China's major industrial firms increased 18.2% year on year during the January-April period, surpassing a rise of 15.5% in the first quarter." Total profits are low but rising rapidly, balancing the lagging growth in wages.