与「sigma」相关的搜索结果

那个45倍的「白毛女股神」，到底在买什么？ 事情是这样的。 最近币圈和美股圈都在传一个名字。 @aleabitoreddit 一个X账号，头像是个白毛二次元少女。 2026年5月晒出年度战绩。 4502.45%。 我当时就愣了。 45倍？ 这尼玛是什么操作？ 我跟你说，兄弟们，她不是蒙的。 公开讨论的35只股票，31只正收益。 胜率接近90%。 超10只股票翻倍。 SIVE年内涨超10倍。 AXTI涨超5倍。 AAOI涨超5倍。 而且最骚的是，这些公司，在Serenity公开讨论之前，市值大多不到2亿美元。 华尔街的研究几乎没人覆盖。 机构根本看不上。 但当市场发现，这些企业居然是AI产业链中不可替代的关键环节时。 估值开始疯狂重估。 我跟你说，这人的厉害之处，不是敢买小票。 真正厉害的是，他不是在预测股价。 他是在推演供应链哪里会断。 01）普通人看AI，Serenity看什么？ 大部分人看AI，通常会问： 谁最火？ 谁涨最多？ 谁是龙头？ 谁最确定？ 所以最后大家都会看向英伟达、微软、Meta、台积电。 但Serenity的思路不是这样。 他真正问的是： 如果AI继续扩张，最后会被谁卡住？ 这就是他最核心的方法。 不找热门，找瓶颈。 02）瓶颈中的瓶颈 比如AI发展，第一反应当然是需要更多GPU。 但GPU只是第一层。 GPU变多之后，数据中心会变得更大。 数据中心变大之后，服务器之间、机柜之间、芯片之间的数据传输压力会越来越高。 于是光通信、激光器、硅光、CPO，就会变得越来越重要。 再继续往下挖： 谁提供关键材料？ 谁提供测试设备？ 谁掌握细分产能？ 谁是那个不起眼，但一旦缺货就会拖慢全链条的环节？ 这就是所谓的，瓶颈中的瓶颈。 一个公司不一定名气最大，也不一定收入最大。 但如果它卡在一条大产业链的关键位置。 当需求爆发，而供给短期跟不上。 它就可能被市场重新定价。 03）Serenity的七层卡脖子地图 Serenity把AI供应链拆成了七层。 每一层都找到了那个「没有它整个链条就断掉」的关键节点。 第一层，原材料。 AXTI，做InP磷化铟衬底。 没有它，光子学建设会倒下。 第二层，pBN坩埚。 信越化学，做InP晶体生长设备。 第三层，衬底加工。 AXTI加上一个未命名的双寡头。 Serenity说，这是「皇冠明珠卡脖子」。 第四层，CW激光器。 SIVE，Sivers Semiconductors。 控制下一代CPO的连续波激光光源。 市值不到3亿美元，Serenity说「严重错误定价」。 第五层，光模块。 AAOI、LITE、COHR、中际旭创。 组装光模块的。 第六层，测试设备。 AEHR，做光子学测试。 第七层，光纤电缆。 GLW康宁、Prysmian、Furukawa。 传统光纤加空心光纤。 你看，从原材料到成品，每一层都有一个「没有它就不行」的节点。 Serenity不是在买股票。 他是在画一张AI供应链的「断点地图」。 04）三个经典案例 案例一：SIVE，10倍股 Sivers Semiconductors，瑞典半导体公司。 做AI光互联激光器和光子芯片。 Serenity反复提及超过190次。 公开讨论前，市值不到1.5亿美元。 长期交易量不到100万美元。 没人关注。 但Serenity看到了什么？ 他看到了CPO，也就是共封装光学。 下一代数据中心，光模块要直接封装到芯片旁边。 这需要CW激光光源。 而SIVE控制了这个卡脖子点。 他预测，2026/27年SIVE可能还是零收入、亏损5000万。 但2028年收入可能到5亿。 2029年到10亿。 更骚的是，空头机构Two Sigma建仓SIVE净空。 股价暴涨之后，空头保证金压力越来越大。 被迫平仓，被动买盘助推。 至少一家空头认亏出局，损失数千万美元级。 这就是Serenity说的逼空共振。 在一个流通盘极小的股票里，做空本身就是在给多头递刀子。 SIVE最高涨了近20倍。 案例二：AXTI，5倍股 AXT Inc，美国衬底材料商。 做InP磷化铟衬底。 Serenity说，AXTI「基本上是整个光子学供应链」。 垂直整合了4个不同的卡脖子点。 他用了一个类比。 霍尔木兹海峡。 全球20%的石油通过霍尔木兹海峡。 一旦堵住，整个系统停摆。 AXTI就是光子学领域的霍尔木兹海峡。 Serenity说，大多数人完全不知道自己在说什么。 尽管日波动15%到25%，他仍然持有。 认为当前估值合理。 后来AXTI从十几美元涨到百元以上。 涨幅接近10倍。 案例三：AAOI，数倍股 Applied Optoelectronics，美国光模块公司。 Serenity说，这家公司「激光→设计→组装→销售光模块，拥有整个供应链」。 正在建设ELSFP，也就是外置光源。 进入CPO领域。 他预测，2027年下半年光模块收入10倍增长。 他在84美元左右买入相当数量。 说66亿市值对他来说太便宜了。 后来股价从30多美元一路上涨数倍。 05）Serenity的五步选股法 Serenity的方法，可以总结成五步。 第一步，找超级趋势。 AI、数据中心、算力、半导体、光通信。 大趋势要足够大，足够确定。 第二步，找第一层瓶颈。 GPU、HBM、电力、网络、数据中心。 这些是最明显的瓶颈。 但也是最拥挤的。 第三步，找第二层瓶颈。 激光器、硅光、CPO、特殊材料、测试设备、系统集成。 真正的认知差，往往藏在这里。 第四步，找「小市值 + 关键卡位」的公司。 不是因为它小就买。 而是因为它小，同时又卡在重要位置。 大趋势很大。 公司很小。 位置很关键。 市场还没完全理解。 这才是十倍股可能出现的地方。 第五步，做前瞻推演。 这家公司未来拿到订单的概率大不大？ 有没有产能扩张能力？ 管理层在做哪些布局？ 过去有没有进入核心供应链的经验？ 它卡住的瓶颈，会不会越来越重要？ 这一步最难。 因为此时订单可能还没明显增加。 财报还没验证。 机构也还没大规模买入。 市场还没给出确定性。 但真正的超额收益，恰恰来自这里。 机构等订单确认、收入兑现、财报验证之后才敢买。 Serenity做的是，在这些信号完全出现之前。 先基于供应链逻辑和工程常识。 判断这家公司有没有机会进入核心位置。 06）为什么是小市值？ Serenity专门挑小市值公司。 不是因为小市值涨得快。 而是因为大基金有体量限制。 一个管理百亿美元的基金，不可能去买一个市值2亿的股票。 买多了，流动性不够，进出都困难。 所以小盘股存在定价真空。 华尔街的研究几乎没人覆盖。 机构根本看不上。 但Serenity不一样。 他用的是自己的钱，加上1.4倍杠杆。 集中持仓。 他不需要考虑流动性。 他只需要考虑，这家公司卡在产业链的哪个位置。 当市场发现这个卡脖子点的时候。 估值就会疯狂重估。 这就是信息差。 市场上研究英伟达的人有几万人。 研究激光器供应链的人可能只有几十个。 研究硅光材料的人可能只有几个人。 而研究某个特殊外延片供应商的人。 可能全世界不到十个人。 Serenity就是这几个人之一。 07）Serenity是谁？ 说实话，没人知道。 全网现在还不知道这个人的真实身份。 没有人知道她的真实姓名、国籍、年龄、职业。 是完全隐匿于网络的顶级投资大佬。 X账号简介写的是： AI半导体产业链研究院、Nature论文作者、RISC-V基金会核心成员。 整个含金量拉满。 她还公开了一段过往。 2018年拒绝了英伟达AI团队主管的邀约。 那时候英伟达股价只有6美元。 我跟你说，这人的背景，大概率是真的。 因为她对AI硬件的理解，不是看研报能看出来的。 是从工程细节里抠出来的。 她自己说过，「Only buys what he's touched」。 只买自己摸过的东西。 她大概率是真的在半导体行业干过。 08）机构轮动理论 Serenity还有一个核心观点。 机构轮动。 她抓住了内存名称上涨的尾巴。 SNDK、三星、SK海力士、美光。 然后机构之前用AAOI、AXTI、LITE、COHR等光子学名称跑赢。 现在再次通过大量增加SiPh、ELS来做到这一点。 她说的三阶段轮动是： 第一阶段，内存。 第二阶段，光模块。 第三阶段，外置光源和硅光。 她认为自己现在处于第三阶段的开端。 而大部分人还在第一阶段徘徊。 这就是认知差。 09）风险与争议 Serenity的方法也不是没有风险。 第一，幸存者偏差。 她公开讨论的股票，涨了的大家都能看到。 跌了的，可能就不提了。 第二，没有监管披露。 她没有基金，没有13F报告。 持仓大小、进出时间，都不透明。 第三，高波动。 她持仓的股票，日波动15%到25%是常态。 普通人根本扛不住。 第四，流动性风险。 小市值股票，进出都困难。 她想卖的时候，可能根本没人接盘。 第五，逼空风险。 她自己也参与逼空。 但逼空是双刃剑。 空头被逼平仓，股价暴涨。 但如果空头坚持不撤，或者更多空头加入。 股价可能暴跌。 10）普通人能学到什么？ Serenity的方法，普通人很难完全复制。 因为她有实打实的AI科研背景。 她对供应链的理解，是从工程细节里抠出来的。 不是看几篇研报就能学会的。 但有几个思路，是可以借鉴的。 第一，不追热门，找瓶颈。 热门股已经被充分定价。 瓶颈股，市场还没发现。 第二，往下挖三层。 英伟达需要GPU。 GPU需要光模块。 光模块需要激光器。 激光器需要衬底材料。 每一层都可能有机会。 第三，小市值+关键卡位。 大趋势很大。 公司很小。 位置很关键。 第四，做前瞻推演。 在订单确认之前，先判断逻辑是否成立。 第五，接受高波动。 如果承受不了15%的日回撤。 就别玩这个。 说到底 Serenity的方法，本质上是「供应链断点投资」。 她不是在看股价。 她是在看产业链哪里会断。 当需求爆发，供给跟不上。 卡在关键节点的公司，就会被重新定价。 这就是十倍股的来源。 但说实话，这种方法，门槛极高。 你需要对产业链有极深的理解。 你需要能接受高波动。 你需要有耐心，等市场发现你发现的逻辑。 我跟你说，股市会奖励错误。 以至于很多人赚到钱之后，就意识不到自己的错误。 但把时间拉长来看，市场是公平的。 所有短期的盈利靠运气。 长期的超额收益，永远靠认知壁垒。 Serenity的认知壁垒，就是她比全世界99.99%的人，更了解AI供应链的断点在哪里。 这就是她一年赚45倍的原因。

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I am the personal financial advisor to the 47th President of the United States. I have made him $4.05 billion in one term. Let me say that again. Four point zero five. Billion. One term. The presidency of the United States, upon proper management, outperforms every asset class in recorded financial history, including venture capital, petroleum futures, and the sovereign wealth fund in Abu Dhabi that manages $1.7 trillion and employs nine hundred analysts. I benchmarked it. We beat them with a staff of four and a leather binder. I keep a binder in the residence. I call it The Number. The Number was $3.4 billion in August. The Number is $4.05 billion now. The Number has never gone down. I update it every Friday at 6 AM, before the briefing, like a surgeon checking vitals on a patient who can only get healthier. The cover is leather. The tabs are color-coded by sector: Crypto, Finance, Hospitality, Media, Other. "Other" includes a Boeing 747-8 valued at $400 million, gifted to him by the Emir of Qatar while he was sitting President. There is no asset class for that. I invented one. I call it EAGLE-7. Crypto is seventy-five percent of the portfolio. $3.02 billion. I want you to sit with that figure. Three billion from digital tokens and stablecoins. From a man who in 2021 called Bitcoin "a scam against the dollar." His words. The flagship holding is Trump Media's bitcoin stockpile. He holds 42% of the company. The company sold shares to institutional investors. Used their capital to purchase bitcoin. His personal stake from that maneuver alone: $1.15 billion. He drafts national cryptocurrency regulation from the Resolute Desk. Signs executive orders on digital asset policy. Handpicks the SEC chair who will enforce them. His bitcoin goes up when he does these things. The investors' stock goes down. That's a conflict of interest. I'm kidding. I've never used those words in that order. That's the investment thesis. Then there is Alt5 Sigma. I need you to understand Alt5 Sigma. Alt5 Sigma was previously known as Appliance Recycling Centers of America. Founded in 1991. In Minnesota. It recycled dishwashers. Then it became a biotech. Then a digital payments company. Then Zach Witkoff, son of the President's special envoy, became chairman, and it became the primary vehicle for purchasing World Liberty Financial tokens. In 1991 it recycled dishwashers in Minnesota. In 2025 it funneled $562 million to the President's family through a Rwandan subsidiary convicted of money laundering. The CEO was removed. The CFO was fired. The auditor was replaced. Twice. The stock went from $8 to $2. We received $562 million from it. I put it in the binder. I logged it in the binder on a Thursday. I used Garamond. It felt appropriate for a company whose journey from kitchen appliances to international money laundering spanned exactly thirty-four years. The stablecoin is where the architecture gets beautiful. USD1. $136 million in projected interest over the remaining term. I will show you the math because the math is the point. $3 billion in circulation. Times 4% annual return. Times three years remaining in office. Times the family's 38% share. The UAE purchased $2 billion of USD1. Then Binance promoted it. Pumped circulation from $2 billion to $5 billion. Binance's founder had pleaded guilty to money laundering violations. He received a presidential pardon in October. I pardon you. You promote my stablecoin. My stablecoin generates $136 million. The pardon cost nothing. The coin cost nothing. The oath of office cost nothing. The entire apparatus of federal clemency was converted into a revenue instrument and nobody filed a complaint. That's yield. TRUMPcoin. $385 million. A memecoin with the President's face on it, launched days before inauguration. Every person who bought TRUMPcoin at launch and held it has lost 90 cents of every dollar. Every person who bought it made the President $385 million richer on the way in. That's the product. The product is not a coin. The product is belief. We are very long belief. His sons received a 13% equity stake in American Bitcoin. A New Yorker investigation determined they contributed, and I quote, "nothing else of obvious value." I would characterize their contribution differently. They contributed the single most valuable commodity in American commerce, worth more per ounce than lithium, more per gram than fentanyl, more per syllable than any word in the English language. Proximity to the man who pardons people. That's due diligence. Hospitality. $271 million. Mar-a-Lago now generates $50 million a year. It generated $10 million when he took office. Initiation fee: $1 million. You are paying $1 million to eat dinner in the same room as the man who controls the Department of Justice. I set that price. It is undervalued. Saudi Arabia. The Crown Prince visited the White House. Then Dar Al Arkan signed licensing deals estimated at $10 billion. Hotels in the Maldives. Golf clubs in Riyadh. A tower in Jeddah. He sat next to the man who ordered a journalist dismembered and said, quote, "He knew nothing about it." Then he signed the hotel deal. I have the term sheet. Our fee is 2-10% of revenue. We do not ask what happened to the journalist. That is not in our mandate. $106 million is in our mandate. That's client retention. Finance: $340 million, predominantly Persian Gulf sovereign wealth fund arrangements structured through intermediaries whose names I am not going to say in this format. Media: $116 million. Legal fee fundraising and branded merchandise: $128 million. The Qatari jet: $150 million. I have already mentioned the jet. I mention it again because a sitting foreign head of state gifted the sitting American President a $400 million flying palace with gold-plated fixtures and a master suite, and not a single member of Congress has asked a follow-up question. Not one. Not in committee. Not in writing. Not on camera. Five hundred and thirty-five legislators. Zero questions. Now. I am required by my own conscience, which is vestigial at this point, to disclose downstream performance. Every public-facing investment vehicle associated with this portfolio has collapsed for outside investors. I will read them. TRUMPcoin. Down 90%. American Bitcoin. Down 80%. Trump NFTs. Down 80%. Trump Media stock. Down 60% since inauguration. Alt5 Sigma. Down 75%. The family's positions were structured to extract value before these declines materialized. The retail investors' positions were structured to supply the value being extracted. There were approximately 600,000 retail wallets holding TRUMPcoin at peak. Retirees. Day traders. People who believed the branding. Their aggregate losses capitalized the portfolio. Their savings became his tab in the binder. That's liquidity. I want to address the competitive landscape. I am a financial professional. I benchmark everything. In 2016, the President stood at a podium and called Hillary Clinton "the most corrupt enterprise in political history." He said she "turned the State Department into her personal hedge fund." The accusation that ended her career was $153 million in speaking fees. Combined. With her husband. Over fifteen years. Goldman Sachs paid her $225,000 per speech. He said the word "crooked" so many times it became her legal name. $153 million. Fifteen years. Two people. I made him $4.05 billion. In one term. By himself. A 26-to-1 ratio. I wrote it on the whiteboard in the residence. Then there was the Biden family. "The Biden Crime Family," he called them. He held rallies about it. He got impeached over investigating it. The Republican House spent two years and $3.5 million in taxpayer funds to uncover, per their own final report, approximately $24 million in Biden family income over five years. Hunter Biden's Burisma salary was $1 million a year, later reduced to $500,000. The Chinese payments were $664,000. The House Oversight Committee called it "influence peddling at the highest level." $24 million. Five years. Ten family members. My client made that in two days. I have the math. $4.05 billion divided by 365 days is $11.1 million per day. The entire Biden investigation, the impeachment, the hearings, the Fox News segments, the "CRIME FAMILY" hats, all of it, for an amount my client earns before his Wednesday morning briefing. The ratio is 168 to 1. I put it on the whiteboard next to the Clinton number. The President saw it. He laughed. He did not ask me to take it down. "Drain the swamp," he said in 2016. I drained it. Into the binder. The swamp is now a portfolio. It is the highest-performing portfolio in the history of public office, and the man who built it ran for President on the promise that he would stop people from doing exactly what I help him do every single day. That's positioning. When the New Yorker published the full accounting, $4.05 billion across five sectors, and asked the President whether he saw a conflict of interest between the office and the fortune, between the pardons and the profits, between setting crypto policy and holding $3 billion in crypto, he told the New York Times six words. "I found out that nobody cared." He was right. He has been right about that singular fact since the beginning. Nobody cared when he launched the coin. Nobody cared when he pardoned the convicted money launderer who pumped his stablecoin. Nobody cared when a dishwasher recycling outfit in Minnesota became a $562 million pipeline to his family through a subsidiary that had been convicted on three continents. Nobody cared when 600,000 wallets evaporated so the leather binder in the residence could gain another tab. He found out nobody cared. Then he monetized the finding at a rate of $11.1 million per day, every day he has held office, including Sundays, including holidays, including the morning he sat next to the Crown Prince and said the murdered journalist had it coming. $4.05 billion. One presidential term. Zero indictments. Zero congressional hearings. Zero audits. Zero consequences of any kind for any person at any level of the operation. The chart goes up. It only counts his money. There is another chart. It has 600,000 wallets on it. Retirement accounts. People who believed a dishwasher recycling company in Minnesota was a sound vehicle for their savings. We do not publish that one. I filed it under EAGLE-7.

从SABR Delta推导到SABR Gamma的展开更正： SABR Delta = BS_Delta (Sigma_B) + BS_Vega(Sigma_B)*∂Sigma/∂F SABR Gamma = BS_Gamma + ∂BS_Delta/∂Sigma*∂Sigma/∂F + ∂BS_Vega/∂F*∂Sigma/∂F + ∂BS_Vega/∂Sigma*(∂Sigma/∂F)^2+BS_Vega*∂^2 Sigma/∂F^2 SABR Gamma = BS_Gamma + 2*BS_Vanna*∂Sigma/∂F+BS_Volga*(∂Sigma/∂F)^2+BS_Vega*∂^2 Sigma/∂F^2

和Quant Alex @StochAlex07 讨论： SABR Theta与Spot Theta+Vol Theta+Cross Theta的异同与应用，以及SABR模型自洽性分析。 **English Summary of the Chat** **SABR Theta vs Spot Theta + Vol Theta + Cross Theta** The conversation between **Alex Wu** (white bubbles) and **Jeff Liang** (green bubbles) is a technical discussion focused on **SABR Theta versus Total Theta** (i.e., Spot Theta + Cross Theta + Vol Theta), model self-consistency, PDE residual, and the correct definition of SABR Greeks. ### Key Points Discussed: 1. **SABR Gamma = Spot Gamma** (first major question, raised by Jeff) Jeff asked whether SABR Gamma (\(\partial^2 P / \partial F^2\)) is identical to Spot Gamma and whether it includes the dependence of \(\sigma_B\) on \(F\). He also provided the full chain-rule expansion of SABR Gamma in terms of Black-76 Greeks. Alex confirmed the understanding and **later affirmed in code** that this is exactly how SABR Gamma is implemented in their system. 2. **SABR Theta vs Total Theta and Model Self-Consistency** (main topic, led by Jeff) Jeff shared a clear 3-point understanding: - SABR Theta is computed directly via the SABR approximation formula to obtain \(\sigma_B\), then applying the Black-76 chain rule: \(\partial P/\partial t =\) BS_Theta(\(\sigma_B\)) + BS_Vega \(\cdot \partial\sigma_B/\partial t\). - Total Theta is the exact decomposition from the SABR PDE (Spot Theta + Cross Theta + Vol Theta). - When the model is **fully self-consistent** (Residual = \(\partial P/\partial t + \mathcal{L}P = 0\)), SABR Theta = Total Theta; otherwise the difference is the unexplained PnL caused by the approximation error in the Hagan formula (especially pronounced in long-dated, high vol-of-vol, or high-skew options). 3. **Practical Implication – Theta Decomposition Decision** (comment by Alex) Alex noted that whether to perform Theta decomposition depends on the risk-management approach: - Without decomposition → use SABR Gamma vs. dP/dt. - With decomposition → SABR Gamma maps to Spot Theta, Vanna to Cross Theta, and Volga to Vol Theta. **Overall Tone**: The discussion is highly technical and collaborative. Jeff drives the conversation by asking clarifying questions and presenting a well-structured 3-point summary of his recent study. Alex provides confirmations, practical insights, and code-level validation. Both participants demonstrate a strong command of SABR model nuances, particularly the relationship between approximation error, PDE residual, and real-world risk management.

Mindshare on Base, Cielo's proprietary noise filter. Based on thousands of wallets tracked across the platform, Mindshare shows how many are buying a token and which terminals they trade through. Gmgn, Sigma, Basedbot, others. Higher % = more wallets buying in. 1m to 24h.