Jukan (@jukan05) “GF Overseas Electronics & Communications NVIDIA (NVDA Buy): Earnings Preview — P” — TopicDigg

GF Overseas Electronics & Communications NVIDIA (NVDA Buy): Earnings Preview — Product Mix Offsets the Impact of Rubin Delay Reiterate Buy rating; target price modestly raised to $308: Driven by rising market expectations ahead of the upcoming earnings call and the U.S. approval on May 14 to export H200 chips to 10 Chinese companies, NVIDIA’s share price has reached a new all-time high. For the May 20 earnings call, we expect results to be in line with expectations, with guidance slightly above expectations. Given the company’s sizeable cash position and free cash flow, the announcement of a new share repurchase program during the earnings call would be a reasonable expectation. In addition, Rubin’s timeline remains a key market focus. We reiterate our view that mass production will be delayed by about one month to September, while the 2300W specification remains unchanged. Beyond GPUs, with Vera CPU and LPX, the company is expected to capture a larger share of value within the data center silicon TAM. For product re-rating, we still believe NVIDIA needs to launch an inference-focused GPU, potentially Feynman. Taking into account higher Blackwell shipments and ASPs, lower Rubin shipments, and LPX contribution, we adjust our FY27E/28E EPS forecasts by +0%/+13%, respectively, and modestly raise our target price from $292 to $308, based on 28x FY27E/28E P/E. Earnings preview — expected to be moderately positive: Driven by normal GB300 NVL72 production, approximately 10% QoQ growth in Blackwell shipments, and a small contribution from RTX6000, we now expect F1Q revenue of $80.6 billion, compared with Bloomberg consensus of $78.8 billion and buy-side expectations of $80.0 billion. As Blackwell shipments continue to increase, we expect F2Q guidance of $91.0 billion, or actual revenue of $93.0 billion, compared with Bloomberg consensus of $86.2 billion and buy-side expectations of around $90.0 billion. Our forecast does not include any Rubin contribution, as we believe it has already been delayed to mass production in September. Given the company’s sizeable cash position and free cash flow, its capital return plan is also worth watching. Blackwell, Vera, and LPX will offset the widely known impact of Rubin’s delay: According to our monthly report published on the 12th, due to earlier heatsink design changes, we expect Rubin’s timeline to be: QS in July, MP in September, and rack mass production in October. In terms of performance, we believe the redesigned version will still maintain the 2300W specification this year. On the other hand, LPX rack ramp-up is faster than expected. We still expect 16,000 LPX racks to ship from 4Q26 through 2027, contributing approximately $70 billion in revenue during this period. In addition, we believe NVIDIA may have shifted N3 wafer capacity from Rubin to Vera CPU in order to capture the Agentic AI trend. Overall, with deeper software–chip integration, the company is likely to capture a larger share of the data center silicon TAM. $NVDA