As always a nice, thoughtful piece from Eric with lots of interesting stuff, but I wanted to highlight one visual (from
@_JoshSchafer) that explains why many strategists are concerned about the 10yr moving above 4.5% towards 5% (it closed at 4.6% Friday).
As Eric notes: "When the 10-year is rising and above 4.25%, stock returns start turning negative. Above 4.75%? The median weekly S&P 500 return drops to -1.9%. We are sitting right in that danger zone."