PlanB (@100trillionUSD)
@100trillionUSD
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1) Scarcity drives monetary value.
Stock-to-Flow (S2F) = existing supply ÷ annual new production. Gold sits at ~60. Industrial metals are far lower. Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million + predictable issuance makes its S2F uniquely measurable: ~120 and rising.
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Most people stare at Bitcoin charts.
Stock-to-Flow models scarcity.
Here are the 10 highest-value S2F insights, the ones that actually change how you think about money.
Thread 🧵
BIP-110 joins BXT, BCH and BSV forks in the history of dead bitcoin ideas.
Remember the BIP-110 supporters! They are now removing the evidence from their profile and timelines. But they still have no clue about bitcoin, decentralized bearer assets, spam, PoW, forks, consensus.
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Bitcoin closed July $62,818
200-week moving average $63k
Realized price $52k (still decreasing)
Monthly RSI 43 (still < 50)
It looks like bitcoin has started the bottoming process. This normally takes 1-3 months and BTC would drop lower during this phase (below realized). DYOR.
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Global bitcoin ownership estimates ~365M people, or 4-5% of world population.
Market capitalization relative to gold (~$1.28T vs ~28T) also points to roughly 4-5% bitcoin adoption.
In logistic (S-curve) terms 4-5% BTC adoption is in the region where % growth rates remain high.
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No regrets
⚠️ Disclosure ⚠️
I have transferred my bitcoin to ETFs.
Yes I know, not your keys not your coins. But it is just easier for me to manage bitcoin the same way as equities and bonds. Also, not having to hassle with keys gives me peace of mind. I guess I am not a maxi anymore.
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2026 is the first year ever in which bitcoin difficulty dropped. What do you think it means?
To be clear (if it wasn't already clear from me retweeting Adam on this topic): I am against the bip 110 filter fork.
IMO filter fork proponents do not really understand:
- bitcoin as a decentralized bearer asset
- bitcoiners dislike spam more then they do
- why BCH fork failed
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Bitcoin price is currently best estimated by bitcoin difficulty (proxy for bitocin production cost), not S2F, not "powerlaw", but dificulty.
Was July $58k the bottom of this bitcoin bear market, and does BTC go up from here?
Or, is the bear market bottom yet to come, and below $58k?
Of course bitcoin can still drop below realized price ($53k), like it did in every bear market bottom.
But Oct $126k top was not the cycle top IMO. Based on stock-to-flow valuation, BTC could still go to $500k ($250k - $1m range) .. this cycle (2026-2028!
Patience
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I❤️this new chart!
Bitcoin’s entire cost basis through time:
• Satoshi-era coins still sitting at <$0.04 since 2009🟥
• Most 2010–2013 coins are basically gone🟦
• Capitulation at bear bottoms (2014,2018,2022)🟨🟥
Free live chart + data downloads👇
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Bitcoin just touched the 200-week MA again.📉
Nobody knows if this is THE bottom...
But history shows:
🔵Blue zones are the BEST buying opportunities
🔵They ALWAYS touch the 200W MA
🔵They go up:
~$250 → ~$4k
~$4k → ~$20k
~$20k → ~$60k
Interesting times ahead!👀
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🔵 Only ~50% of #Bitcoin# is in profit right now.
How long will BTC stay stuck in this blue zone?
It could take a couple more months… but once this metric flips back to 🟢, a new bull cycle begins.
History is clear on what happens next 👀
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Bitcoin metrics used to cost thousands per year.
BlockHorizon just opened everything up, 100% FREE data & charts:
✅ All metrics, daily updates
✅ Full historic data
✅ Unlimited alerts
✅ CSV+XLS+JSON downloads
Same data as other providers. No paywall
👉
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I have been using data from BlockHorizon for all my analysis and charts. This used to be proprietary data. Now they’ve opened it up: free access to all metrics, charts, and downloadable raw datasets, updated daily.
Worth checking out👉
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Bitcoin closed June at $58,526
BELOW 200 week moving average ($62k)
ABOVE realized cost price ($52k)
ALL previous bear market bottoms were below realized price ...
What will trigger bitcoin's liquidation phase to the bear market bottom next couple of months?
Bitcoin will likely bottom BELOW Realized Price (~$53k), just like it did in EVERY previous bear market.
Right now the grey Realized Price line has been glued to the black 200-week Geometric MA line since 2023.
What do you think: new low incoming or different this time?👇
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