MarketCompass (@FreshWorldBiz)

Ever seen cherries labelled "J," "JJ" or "JJJ" in a Chinese supermarket? Here's what it means. In China, imported sweet cherries are called "che li zi," a transliteration of the English word "cherries." They're sold by size grade, and the number of J's tells you the diameter. Based on common labels on Chinese e-commerce platforms:
 J: about 26 to 28 mm
JJ: about 28 to 30 mm
JJJ: about 30 to 32 mm
4J: about 32 to 34 mm Each extra J adds roughly 2 mm, and can add quite a bit to the price. Right now is Chilean cherry season in China. Chile's summer is China's winter, so the first air shipments arrive in late October, with peak supply in December and January, just in time for New Year and Lunar New Year gifting. China is Chile's biggest cherry customer by far: according to 21st Century Business Herald, China has bought more than 90% of Chile's cherry exports for seven years in a row. Does anywhere near you grade fruit by size like this? 
#cherries# #Chile# #agriculture# In-depth reports at

Question for everyone in Canada: which grocery item has surprised you most at the checkout lately? Here's what the latest data shows. According to Statistics Canada, grocery prices rose 1.7% year over year in September, the smallest increase since May 2024. Fresh vegetables were down 2.9% and sugar and confectionery down 2.7%, while fresh or frozen beef was still up 8.7%. But averages don't always match what you see on the shelf. Tell us the item and the price where you live 👇 October numbers should be out next week, and we'll see if your experience matches the data Source: Statistics Canada, September 2026 CPI 
#Canada# #groceries# #food# In-depth reports at

问大家一个问题：你家附近的猪肉，现在多少钱一斤？ 我们一直在追踪猪价。据猪易通，11月5日全国生猪出栏均价每公斤8.74元，比去年同期低了约26% 但这是养殖场卖猪的价格，到了菜市场就不一样了。据农业农村部监测，10月中旬全国集贸市场猪肉平均每公斤20.81元，也就是每斤10元出头，比去年同期低了11% 从猪场到菜市场，中间差了一倍多。你那边是多少？买的是哪个部位？在评论区告诉我们城市和价格👇我们整理一下，看看各地差多少 
#猪肉# #猪价# #农产品# 深度研报，请至

补充一下当事人视角😂 在泰国读高中时，我过生日都是我请客，不同的朋友都很惊讶，因为他们默认是AA 到了加拿大，跟中国朋友出去还是谁生日谁请。但也有一位外国朋友坚持要请我，她说哪有让寿星自己付钱的道理，在她家都是客人给过生日的人买蛋糕，请客庆祝 所以还是跟文化背景相关，尤其加拿大是个很多元的地方，每一圈朋友过生日的方式都不太一样

有朋友问：美国有什么水果出口亚洲比较多？ 看美国农业部的数据，2025年美国鲜果在亚洲最大的几个市场是： 
韩国：3.54亿美元
台湾：3.03亿美元，增长16%
日本：2.26亿美元，增长14%
香港：1.15亿美元 不同市场爱吃的不一样：
韩国：橙子和樱桃是大头
台湾：美国是台湾最大的鲜果供应来源，苹果、樱桃、葡萄、桃子都卖得好
东南亚：美国樱桃越来越受欢迎，很多是买来送礼的 一个有意思的对比：同样是苹果，台湾不进口中国大陆的苹果，所以美国苹果在台湾很有优势；但在东南亚，美国苹果要跟价格更低的中国苹果正面竞争 来源：美国农业部海外农业局（FAS）、美国农业部经济研究局（ERS） 
#水果# #农产品#

牛肉小系列②：牛杂是不是都被中国人吃了？ 答案是：没有，全世界都在抢 以美国为例，美国人自己几乎不吃牛舌、牛肝、牛肚这些“副产品”，但它们出口后很值钱。2025年，美国每屠宰一头育肥牛，出口的牛杂大约25磅，价值超过45美元。其中光牛舌一项，就为每头牛贡献了超过15美元 谁在吃？
牛舌：日本最爱，有估计认为日本买走了美国几乎所有的牛舌
牛肝：埃及
牛肚：墨西哥，它也是美国牛杂出口量最大的市场
牛五花（short plate）：日本和韩国，切成薄片做牛丼、火锅和烤肉
牛小排、肩胛肉：韩国和日本需求很大，这些部位在美国本地反而不常见 下一篇聊：和牛、安格斯这些牛种，到底是不是智商税？ 来源：美国牛肉研究与推广委员会（Beef Checkoff）、Meat+Poultry、美国内布拉斯加大学林肯分校农业政策中心 
#牛肉# #农产品#

刚刚刷到一个视频，是讲抗炎饮食的，视频里面说用微波炉做三文鱼，能更好地保留里面的Omega-3，突然想跟大家聊聊三文鱼 首先在加拿大的话，我个人的建议是，超市的三文鱼最好煮熟再吃，就算包装上写着“生食级别”也一样 起因是朋友有一次在超市买了标着生食级别的三文鱼，结果吃出了白色的小寄生虫。人没事，但从那以后就不太敢生吃了。当然这只是一次经历，可能跟那家供应商或超市有关，不代表所有加拿大的生食级别三文鱼都这样 所以想问问大家
平时在哪个国家，家里会生吃三文鱼吗？吃得多吗？
一般选哪个产地的？
野生的还是养殖的？

Why is beef so expensive in America? Start with the herd. As of Jan 1, 2026, the US had 86.2 million cattle and calves, the smallest herd since 1951. Beef cows fell to 27.6 million, the lowest since the early 1960s. The herd has lost about 8.5 million head (9%) since its last peak in 2019, and the 2025 calf crop was the smallest since 1941. What shrank it: years of drought, high feed and input costs, ranchers holding back fewer heifers to rebuild, and fewer live cattle imports from Mexico after a screwworm outbreak halted trade for over a year. The result: ground beef hit a record $7.16/lb in August, up 7.9% from a year ago. Imports are filling some of the gap, up 17% in 2025, but cattle take years to raise. Analysts don't expect meaningful herd expansion until at least 2028. Sources: USDA NASS Cattle Inventory (Jan 2026), US Bureau of Labor Statistics, University of Florida IFAS, American Farm Bureau Federation 
#beef# #cattle# #agriculture#

🥔 有朋友问：中国的土豆，是不是大部分拿去做淀粉和薯条了？ 查了一下，答案跟直觉相反 据联合国粮农组织数据，2023 年中国土豆的去向：
鲜食（直接当菜吃）约 73%
饲料约 11%
加工约 8%
种薯约 3%
损耗约 4% 加工的那 8% 里，主要也是淀粉和粉条粉丝，薯条薯片反而是小头 对比一下：美国有六成以上的土豆用于加工，薯条薯片才是主力 加工的价值空间其实很大。有业内人士估算，土豆做成薯条薯片能增值 5 到 10 倍，做成普通淀粉增值约一倍 酸辣土豆丝和炖土豆，才是中国土豆的主战场 😂 来源：澎湃新闻引 FAO 数据、21 世纪经济报道、宁夏商务厅 #土豆# #农产品#

鸡蛋周期可以说比猪周期短一些，而且有两层 小周期：一年之内，一般春节后低、中秋前高 大周期：亏损时大家淘汰老鸡、少补栏，产能下降后价格反弹；赚钱时又一拥而上补栏。蛋鸡从补栏到开产大约 17 到 18 周，所以调整比养猪快，但一轮盈亏通常也要一两年以上。比如 2025 年大半年亏损，今年蛋价就回升了

China pork prices, second week of September 2026: Live hogs: ¥11.54/kg (down 0.4% week on week) Pork at farmers' markets: ¥21.22/kg (flat) Pork at wholesale: ¥16.28/kg, down 17.4% year on year Cheaper pork for consumers, tighter margins for farmers. Officials expect prices to move in a narrow range in the short term, as cooler weather lifts demand while some farms speed up sales. Source: China Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (monitoring of 500 county markets and 200 wholesale markets) #hogs# #pork# #agriculture#

🦀 阳澄湖大闸蟹预计这几天开捕 几个数字：阳澄湖年产量稳定在 1 万吨左右，品牌价值约 282 亿元，是苏州农业品牌价值第一 顺便科普：湖泊蟹和池塘蟹其实是同一种蟹（中华绒螯蟹），只是养的地方不一样。湖泊蟹肉更紧实，池塘蟹产量高、供货稳。一年只有 1 万吨，市面上的“阳澄湖蟹”有多少是真的，大家心里有数 😂 来源：苏州市阳澄湖大闸蟹行业协会、荔枝新闻、杭州日报 #大闸蟹# #农产品#

周期性农业公司，最该学的不是“怎么扩张”，而是“怎么过冬” 养猪行业这几年的教训很典型：猪价高的时候借钱扩产能，猪价一跌，负债就压上来。有分析把问题总结为用短债撑长投、用高杠杆赌周期 这也是为什么我们觉得，做农产品的人最好先懂期货和周期分析：知道价格为什么涨、什么时候会跌，才知道什么时候该扩、什么时候该收 来源：界面新闻、腾讯新闻对上市猪企财报的报道 #农产品# #猪周期#

Back to where my family are after a while, so the family got together. I found a spot on Google Maps with 1000+ reviews at 4.5 stars and gave it a try. Beautiful setting, genuinely fresh food, quality same to what I'd get back in NA. Not cheap tho, especially by Thailand standards. One thing stood out: the menu was only in Russian and English. No Thai, in a restaurant in Thailand. Tells you exactly who it's built for. Great experience, though probably more of a "come for the view and the company" place than a regular. 好久没回来了，一家人聚了聚。在 Google 地图上翻到一家 1000+ 评价 4.5 星以上的店就去试了 风景真的好，菜很新鲜，水准跟北美相似。就是不便宜，尤其比泰国本地物价 有个细节挺有意思，一家开在泰国的餐厅菜单只有俄语和英语，没有泰文。客群定位一目了然 体验很好，不过大概更适合看风景和朋友聚会

Chili Pepper Price Trends 2026 Nine years ago there were already rumors that chili pepper futures would be listed. I researched it at length and even wanted to visit the production regions in India, but nothing ever came of it. Here I have to say something about AI hallucination, which increasingly demands vigilance these days. AI swore up and down that the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange had listed chili pepper futures. Fortunately I trade every day; after a moment of doubt, I confirmed that the Zhengzhou exchange has no such thing. Back to the main story. The top boss among chili producing regions is of course China, now accounting for nearly half of global output, at 22 million metric tons per year against world production of 44 million tons. That output has fully doubled from twenty years ago to today. The growth in chili demand tracks partly with population growth and partly with economic growth: as incomes rise, people dine out more, and chili demand rises with it. Alongside this came the territorial conquest of Sichuan and Hunan cuisine, and the penetration of Mexican tacos into the United States. However, chili flavors differ by variety, and fresh chilis are hard to transport and store, so price correlation between the Americas and Asia is not high. Chinese and Indian chili prices, meanwhile, are increasingly intertwined. This is mainly because India’s S17, a high heat dried chili, occupies an ever larger place in Sichuan and Hunan cooking. People’s palates keep getting heavier: spiciness only ever intensifies, never lightens. India’s actual output is about half of China’s, but because it is dried chili, its nominal volume appears to be only one tenth of China’s. Chili shares two traits with other vegetables. First, the cobweb effect: farmers blindly chase prices, so price and output repeat in cycles, circling in place like a spiderweb, like the succession of ancient dynasties. Second, eating at the mercy of the heavens: climate has an enormous impact on chili output. But climate effects in China, India, and Mexico are not synchronized. If you compare the overlap between apple and chili growing regions, you may find some correlation between Chinese chili and apple prices, but chili has its own characteristics. Cold storage apple prices do not affect new season contracts, whereas chili cold storage inventory can affect market prices directly, with no futures influence. Still, the structural contradiction here is obvious. Last year’s high dried chili inventory and high import volume, stacked on weak food service consumption, formed one side. Meanwhile the small fresh chilis of daily consumption, thanks to the cobweb effect, saw planted acreage fall by 20 percent. So on some wholesale price indexes, you can see Sanyingjiao chili prices rebounding. For those in the growing and wholesale trade, expectation management is critically important. For more on vegetables, fruit, fresh proteins, and meat, visit the fresh commodity world, launching soon.

How Apple Prices Are Determined in North America Apple prices in Canada are driven by the United States, meaning North American apple prices are effectively US prices, and US prices are determined by Washington State, which accounts for approximately two thirds of total production capacity. There is no apple futures market in the US, so market prices are not the result of capital market speculation. Instead, large apple growers, packing houses, and major supermarket chains negotiate long term supply contracts with agreed upon prices, factoring in growing conditions, labor, and energy costs. The purpose is to avoid destructive competition and price disorder. In practice, the entire US vertical supply chain operates under a shared understanding: abnormal price volatility is bad for apple sales and bad for stable orchard operations. As a result, the USDA and industry associations including the Washington State Tree Fruit Association closely monitor spot prices at origin and wholesale prices across regions, publishing them publicly on a daily basis to prevent price manipulation. At the farm level, growers store harvested apples in controlled atmosphere (CA) storage facilities. This functions similarly to China’s historical “Changping Granary” system which is a buffer mechanism designed to prevent supply shortages caused by weather disasters from triggering price spikes, and to store surplus apples during bumper years to prevent price collapses. When I was in the Middle East, I came across a video from Israel showing workers in a field harvesting a type of melon, using perforated boards to measure each melon’s diameter and leaving the undersized ones in the field. The goal was for growers to control market supply and prevent prices from crashing. In the early days of New Zealand’s kiwifruit industry, growers were at the mercy of fruit traders who aggressively pushed prices down, leaving the entire sector operating at a loss. The New Zealand government eventually stepped in to establish a kiwifruit growers’ association, prohibiting individual growers from quoting prices independently those who did so lost the right to use the origin designation. By presenting a unified pricing front, the association secured profitability for growers, generating surplus capital to invest in research, maintain quality, and enforce strict controls on pesticide and fertilizer use. The result is the world-renowned New Zealand kiwifruit brand. When you order fruit juice overseas, you often see “kiwi” right there on the menu. Cutthroat competition has become even more chaotic in the e-commerce era. China’s fresh fruit industry has, in practice, been a process of bad money driving out good. That said, we have also seen a different kind of standard emerge one from the futures market that has brought renewed discipline to the apple sector. Exchange delivery standards have incentivized higher quality apples, creating a clear distinction from substandard fruit that does not meet delivery requirements. This is an important point I raised in the previous piece, and one that futures speculators cannot afford to ignore. That said, not many of my readers are active in apple markets, so that piece did not get much attention. China should, in my view, list oranges and other major fruits on futures exchanges as well, to bring the same kind of regulatory discipline to those sectors. This report is published openly. For more fresh commodity market reports, visit in approximately two months.