2026.07.16 15:25

. @tushar_jain breaks down the three-number framework he multiplies together to value a founder-driven bet like @ethena "It's three numbers that we try to figure out. One is the total market size, looking a few years out. The second is margins in the long run - are there returns to scale?" "The third is execution risk, and this is where the founder comes into play. We think @gdog97_ is one of the most competent founders in DeFi, and that reduces the execution risk" "I don't want to give false precision, but we multiply these three things together to give us a rough sense of what this should be worth" @Multicoin

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MR SHIFT 🦁@KevinWSHPod

2026.07.09 14:55

E178: Tushar Jain - Why Multicoin is betting big on Hyperliquid, Zcash and Solana Tushar Jain is Managing Partner at @Multicoin. He's back on the show to talk about where crypto is in the cycle, how he sizes bets across $SOL, $HYPE, and $ZEC, and the frameworks he uses to manage his own psychology. Timestamps: 0:00 - Intro 1:31 - Who is Tushar Jain 3:44 - Are we at a crypto turning point? 4:57 - Buying into bad news before confirmation 6:24 - Buying vs. selling: which is harder 7:13 - Still bullish on @solana ? 9:15 - TradFi issuers and credible neutrality 11:47 - Sponsors: @variational_io @Bitwise 12:39 - How to size two competing bullish bets 14:13 - Category leader vs. "better play" 17:00 - Most obvious trade for 2026: $ZEC 19:39 - What @Zcash represents 22:27 - Valuing an asset with no revenue 24:18 - Trading framework vs. buy-and-hold 26:40 - Valuing $SOL and $HYPE 31:45 - Sponsors @KASTxyz @Trezor 32:54 - Timing entries in volatile assets 36:26 - Why @Multicoin doesn't trade, only manages 39:25 - The four sources of investing edge 41:14 - Edge examples: $ZEC, $HYPE, $ENA 43:21 - What Ethena represents 45:37 - How much founder quality matters : @gdog97_ example 47:09 - When to take profits 49:50 - Thoughts on Ethereum and $ETH 51:44 - Kyle leaving Multicoin 53:03 - Sponsors @JupiterExchange @ethena 53:46 - Why Tushar is still in crypto 58:26 - Wrap-up and thanks 1:00:37 - Bonus segment intro - Zcash drama + Hyperliquid report 1:00:39 - What happened with the Zcash bug 1:04:13 - Zcash's fix: the Ironwood pool 1:05:50 - How long it took to decide to buy more 1:08:13 - Multicoin's Hyperliquid report 1:09:55 - Base case: $319 $HYPE price target, key assumptions 1:15:21 - Is the crypto bottom in? 1:18:11 - Closing thanks

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