Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI)
@RaoulGMI
Founder/CEO Global Macro Investor, @RealVision. Figuring things out at the nexus of Macro, Web3 & the Exponential Age. Not a guru.
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Why would you ever sell anything?
We are living through the fastest acceleration of technology in all of human history. The financial system is being rebuilt on crypto rails: agentic identity, robotic identity, human identity, all of it moving onchain.
And yet people are still trying to time it. Selling because someone somewhere thinks the liquidity cycle might soften for a bit is bananas.
You don't time a technology adoption cycle. You accumulate through it. Every drawdown is a chance to own more of the base layer of the next economy.
The one job is to stay in.
@BittelJulien and I got into all of this on The Journey Man. As ever, please enjoy!
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By 2032 or 2034, crypto crosses $100 trillion.
For context... there's about $800 trillion of assets in the world right now. Gold is $30 trillion, global M2 is $80 trillion. The entire digital asset space is $3.5 trillion.
Adoption has followed the same log regression channel for over a decade. Forward-project it and you land at $100 trillion by the early 2030s.
That's $97 trillion of new wealth in under a decade. More than every Russian billionaire, US tech billionaire, and finance and real estate billionaire on earth, combined.
I've been saying this for years. This is how you unfuck your future.
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Everything in the economy runs on the same input. Compute, AI, robotics, manufacturing, transport... it's all energy underneath.
That matters now because of demographics. Fewer workers every year means the economy only grows if output per head grows fast, and the engine for that is the Exponential Age... AI and robotics doing the work people used to.
But all of that runs on energy. So the cost of energy is the ceiling on the whole thing.
That's why the EU, Japan, China, the US and the UK are all moving at the same time.
If we can take the cost of energy to near zero, GDP per capita stops being hostage to the price of a barrel of oil.
That's the way out of this mess.
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The biggest problem humanity faces is that we're running out of people.
Sounds insane, I know. Fewer people means fewer mouths to feed, more resources to go around, and less pressure on the planet. All true, until you follow it through.
GDP is driven by demographics. A smaller workforce means a lower ceiling on output, and we're already carrying more debt than we can service.
So governments are left with one question. How do you grow when there's no one left to do the work? There's only one answer. Robots and AI.
That's why the Exponential Age is arriving faster than anyone forecast, not through choice but through necessity.
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The biggest problem humanity faces is that we're running out of people.
Sounds insane, I know. Fewer people means fewer mouths to feed, more resources to go around, and less pressure on the planet. All true, until you follow it through.
GDP is driven by demographics. A smaller workforce means a lower ceiling on output, and we're already carrying more debt than we can service.
So governments are left with one question. How do you grow when there's no one left to do the work? There's only one answer. Robots and AI.
That's why the Exponential Age is arriving faster than anyone forecast, not through choice but through necessity.
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AI is the single greatest innovation in human history.
The only thing that comes close is splitting the atom.
Every economic system we've ever built runs on the scarcity of knowledge. Lawyers, doctors, experts of every kind… they get paid because what they know is scarce.
With AI, knowledge is now infinite. That breaks everything. Our entire economic model, as well as our understanding of what humans do, and what we're for.
This is the Exponential Age. I've been mapping this out for years across @RealVision and GMI, piecing it together as it unfolded. Today I wrote a full breakdown that pulls it all into one place.
Link below.
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