Kalshi traders are pricing in a $54K Bitcoin this year.
That falls right into my accumulation range.
2022: BTC bottomed around $15K–25K, then exploded to $126K (5x).
2026: likely bottoming around $40K–55K, with $140K+ as the next major target (3x).
The pattern still looks intact.
Same consolidation.
Same accumulation phase.
Same cycle behavior.
The cycle isn’t dead — it’s simply moving slower this time.
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$BTC
Wouldn’t be shocking at all. Realized price is still sitting around $54K.
If this market truly has another leg down, Bitcoin likely has 3–4 more months left in this phase.
But if we go through that period without revisiting sub-$60K levels, there’s a real possibility we never see those prices again.
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