Jacob Coxon (@hilbertspaess)
@hilbertspaess
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This slide from the Anthropic IPO roadshow was a big factor in my decision to leave. It’s an insane plot and I’m surprised they made it public.
It shows the compute efficiency of pretraining over time. The y-axis is a **log scale**: they are seeing continued superexponential algorithmic progress.
Mythos was not a one-time deviation, but a point on a superexponential. They could already retrain Mythos with a fraction of the compute originally needed.
It doesn’t strictly imply a software-only intelligence explosion- they have been spending more on R+D. But algorithmic improvements do not require ridiculous creative genius and are on the verge of being automated. You do the math.
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The people building AI earnestly believe that it could kill us all by the end of the decade. This is not a marketing stunt. If anything, many executives and senior researchers will couch their phrasing in the press to sound sensible - but I hear the same people express fear privately. No other human activity poses this level of danger.
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I resigned from Anthropic today. I spent the last three years doing pretraining research at both OpenAI and Anthropic. Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives. More thoughts below.
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