koba (@kobaHUB) “You can be right 70% of the time - and still go broke. A strategy that wins 7 ou” — TopicDigg

You can be right 70% of the time - and still go broke. A strategy that wins 7 out of 10 trades sounds unbeatable. But say the winner pays +1 and the loser costs −3. Expected value: 0.70×1 − 0.30×3 = −0.20. A system that's right most of the time is bleeding money on every trade. Now flip it. A strategy that wins only 4 out of 10 - but the winner pays +2 and the loser costs just −1. Expected value: +0.20. It loses more often. It's also the only one making money. The market doesn't pay you for guessing direction correctly. It pays you for the full payoff - how much you make when you're right, how much you lose when you're wrong. It gets worse. Even with a genuine edge, six losses in a row isn't a red flag - at a 40% loss rate, it's a routine occurrence. And a 50% drawdown doesn't need a 50% recovery to break even. It needs your capital to double. So the real question isn't "how do I win more often." It's "what survives being wrong, repeatedly, in the wrong order." That's not confidence. That's math.