Robin Brooks (@robin_j_brooks)
@robin_j_brooks
Senior Fellow @BrookingsInst, previously Chief Economist @IIF and Chief FX Strategist @GoldmanSachs. Opinions are my own. Email: RBrooks@brookings.edu.
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Gold moves inversely with real US interest rates. Those are rising because markets think the Fed's reaction function is shifting in a hawkish direction under Warsh. That - plus the huge drop in oil prices - is driving up real rates as inflation tumbles...
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Welcome to the "Deflation Trade." Markets are trading two shocks: (i) the rapid fall in oil prices, a deflationary impulse; and (ii) a hawkish shift in the Fed's reaction function, which is also deflationary. Real rates are up, which sends gold tumbling...
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