Gavin Baker: "The Magnificent 7 will go from $10-12 trillion to $50-100 trillion. But one or two of them will go extinct."
His foundation-model survival list is short:
- Google — search-plus-Gemini flywheel
- Meta — Llama + ad-revenue self-funding
- xAI — X + Tesla data footprint
Anthropic, OpenAI, everyone else — Baker treats them as commoditized.
His FOMO warning: "Application SaaS is done. If you went all-in on crypto and SaaS in 2021, don't repeat the trade."
On AGI: "Elon says 3 years. I say 5 is safer."
On regulation: "The leading labs weaponized fear of China. There's going to be no regulation."
The math he keeps quoting: $12T → $100T is 8x. But 1-2 die means winners take 30-40% of the total, not 14%.
Baker's frame: no regulation + AGI in 5 years + Mag 7 8x = biggest enterprise-value transfer in market history is happening right now.
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