所有存储股都得给谷歌磕一个,点燃自己,照亮他人。
Google Q2 财报,营收 $1,198 亿、同比 +24%,云业务暴涨 82%,搜索广告 +17%,都是超预期。
但它同季度资本开支 $449 亿、预计今年资本支出将在$1,950亿-$2,050亿之间,该公司历史上首次出现负现金流。
说白了,谷歌这季度赚的漂亮,钱却大把砸给AI了。
现在的问题就是,这轮 AI,钱全被卖铲子的赚走了,永远缺存储!
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兄弟们 ethereum:native 涨到1,869美元附近了,但这不是反转。
过去7天涨了3.6%,24小时成交量却缩了38%。ETF在7月17日净流入3,670万美元,钱开始回来是事实,可盘面还没走出那种“不让人上车”的强度。
我更倾向它继续在1,800—1,950美元之间磨。先碰一碰1,900上方并不难,真正要看的是冲高之后还能不能留下来。
如果1,950美元附近又被按回去,这段仍然只是1,500美元反弹后的筑底,后面还会反复试探1,800美元;跌破1,780美元,1,650—1,700美元就得重新防着。
只有站稳1,950美元,后面去2,050—2,100美元才有讨论价值。
ETH现在不缺看多理由,缺的是一根让空头不敢继续压、让场外资金愿意追的K线。
它还没给我们这需要耐心等待。
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存储股这波大顶,我不是猜的,是按框架定位的。
6/22-6/25 美光 1,257、闪迪 2,382、海力士 1,978 同步见顶,至今 -33%~-41%。我的见顶框架四个信号,当时亮了三个:
1️⃣ 合约价涨幅斜率崩了。DRAM 季度环比 Q1 +93~98% → Q2 +58~63% → Q3 预估只剩 +13~18%。股价定价的从来不是价格水平,是斜率。斜率拐头,故事就完了。
2️⃣ 供给端全面反击。美光 2,500 亿美元建厂、三星提前扩产、海力士加速下设备单、长鑫上市。一个行业人人抢着扩产的时候,周期顶就不远了。
3️⃣ 利好钝化——最响的信号。业绩预告 +1099%、+3200% 的公司直接跌停;海力士 ADR 七倍超购、首日 +12.8%,第二天韩股 -10%。庆典即顶点:利好砸不出新高,就是在派发。
4️⃣ HBM 砍单(没触发)。这恰恰说明产业还没顶,但股价先顶了。2018 年美光股价 5 月见顶,DRAM 合约价 Q3 才见顶——股价领先产业 2-4 个季度。等产业数据变坏再跑,晚了。
盘面也在自己说话:反弹高点三连降(1,257→1,050→1,007),每次反弹卖压来得更早,教科书级派发结构。
周期股赚的是斜率的钱,不是景气的钱。景气最好的那天,往往就是股价最贵的那天。
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As an OG PC Geek, let me educate yall for a moment.
Personal Computers have come a long way since the 90's. Hell, back then, gaming consoles were much better at playing games. PC's were vastly more expensive and hard to use.
The custom PC revolution in the 2000's changed all of this; my friends and I regularly saved for new parts and were able to play new games that didn't exist on console at really good quality.
It was an unbelievable time to be alive.
However, since 2021, gaming has not increased its fidelity all that much, specifically with the games most people actually play.
If you do some research, you'll see that before the Ai boom took off, using 2021 as the foundation, the hardware from that time is still widely used, so much so that developers ensure their games can run on it.
Have graphics and performance changed much since 2021? No, not at all. Did it even change much from 2016 to 2021? Ditto, same situation.
What has changed is this: Memory use in applications and standards in app performance expectations
Operating Systems and Apps use much more memory than ever before, and so do games. 16GB is fairly standard now and 10GB of that always being in use is common enough when running everything at once.
4K gaming is very viable but is much more costly on the high end, adding roughly $500+ more cost to your GPU requirements. 1440p is the sweet spot right now
Consider the following PC Hardware Config:
• GPU: RTX 3060 12GB – $250
• CPU: Ryzen 5 5600X – $147
• Mobo: MSI B550-A Pro – $110
• RAM: 16GB DDR4 3200MHz – $130
• SSD: 1TB NVMe PCIe 4.0 – $164
• PSU: MSI MAG A850GL – $95
• Case: NZXT H6 Flow – $86
Total: ~$982 (All brand-new parts)
Compared to the $1,050 for the Steam Machine...
Well! Not bad
But here's the catch:
This $982 PC I put together beats the Steam Machine in several key areas:
The storage is double, 512GB versus 1TB M.2
The CPU uses more power, runs faster.
The GPU has 4GB more VRAM
The RAM is 2 sticks, 8GB each, reducing potential bottleneck issues.
However, the Steam Machine will still play all the most popular games, just not at ideal settings in some cases, and doesn't require you to build it yourself, or deal with higher temperatures, loud fans, and larger form factor. Plus it has a great OS pre-installed for you!
IT'S TIME TO REMOVE WINDOWS FOREVER!!!!!
*ahem*
Steam Machine offers a lot for what it is and i think people will buy it for the convenience it offers.
*BUT*
My primary point with all of THIS, is to say:
Gaming has peaked. The War Is Over.
Hardware past 2021 doesn't give better performance in any meaningful way.
Check the required specs for the game you want to play, and get those parts. Simple as.
However, I would highly suggest everyone to consider the new value add of Personal Computers going forward:
You can create your own mini data center at home with self hosting tools, using much of the same hardware in your gaming PC, but with a lot more RAM, GPU power and storage requirements, doubling the cost.
You can ditch all the subscription services and start building your Exocore today with self hosted AI.
This is what PC's are moving towards and eventually everyone will build it themselves or have someone do it for them. I'm doing it myself right now and suggest you do too, or get your PC Geek friend to do it for you.
Welcome to the new world
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