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今天看到不少未来几个月的波段交易机会。 机会其实很多，先分享几个我自己重点关注的方向。 1）原油：更倾向于120附近找中期做空机会 (图1） 我会重点观察原油是否再次冲击120附近形成 triple top，届时考虑布局 $USO 的中期 Put，时间看到中期选举前后。 短期催化上： 1. 伊朗与美国谈判进展有限 2. 美国近期在印度洋扣押与伊朗相关船只 3. 地缘风险仍在持续推高油价预期 但我认为，原油过去几个月本质还是80-120的大区间震荡。大摩、小摩目前因为供应与储备问题偏看多油价，但我更倾向于从政治周期角度看问题。中期选举前，白宫大概率不会希望高油价长期持续，霍尔木兹海峡的风险最终仍可能被压制。如果后面形成顶部结构，我会看78附近，以及更下方67附近的gap。 当然这不是几天完成的行情，更像几个月级别的波段。 2）Fintech：依然是被低估的方向 (图2和图3） 市场现在已经开始提前交易未来的降息预期。哪怕凯文·沃什未来只是释放偏鸽派信号不用真正降息，对Fintech整体估值修复都会有帮助。 先说 $SOFI：目前周线EMA200大概在15.5附近，下方还有长期趋势线支撑，13附近我认为是非常好的中长期布局区域。 再说 $HOOD：如果未来能回踩到57左右的大级别趋势线支撑，我会认为是非常理想的低吸位置, 我会在72，67和58这几个位置加仓。 这两个票本质上都属于利率预期改善 + 风险偏好回升后的高Beta受益资产。 3）核能：估值杀完后，政策拐点正在接近 （图4） 很多人只看AI芯片，但黄仁勋其实已经反复强调未来最缺的不是算力，而是能源。问题是，能源板块目前整体依然没有被市场充分定价。 今年几个政策变化其实很关键： 1. NRC通过《GES环境简化法案》 2. Part 53 / Part 57审批大幅放松 3. 微型核反应堆审批时间缩短至6个月 4. 特朗普发布《新核能复兴白皮书》 5. DOE追加27亿美元高纯度燃料支持 这些东西短期不会立刻反映到盈利，但会影响未来几年市场对核能行业的风险定价。 $CEG ：跌破270后，原本2025-2026的大级别支撑已经失效，我现在更关注210-220附近的新趋势支撑。 $OKLO：53缺口已经回补，但考虑到大盘可能还没调整结束，我个人更希望看到42附近再出现更舒服的风险收益比。我会考虑从50附近开始分批建仓。63附近是double top颈线压力，如果后续反抽不过，理论上还有二次回踩可能。 4） $CRWD 的短空机会 把2024、2025、2026几个阶段高点连起来看，630附近是一个非常明显的大级别压力区。如果后续情绪继续冲高，我会关注这里是否出现短线做空机会。 这是纯技术面交易逻辑，不代表长期看空公司基本面。 5）RKLB：更像典型的 “sell the news” 前几天我提过, RKLB如果回踩117、109附近，其实是不错的短线博弈位置，逻辑就是交易SpaceX上市前的情绪溢价。但我认为，一旦SpaceX真正上市，RKLB当前最大的稀缺性溢价会明显下降。 如果后续情绪继续发酵，我认为140-150附近可能会开始进入高风险区域。到时候如果形成double top结构，我会更偏向于寻找反手做空机会。 今天先写这么多。 以上都只是我自己的交易框架，不构成投资建议。市场永远是动态变化的，关键还是做好仓位管理和风险控制。 #美股# #AI基建# #波段交易# #核能# #SwingTrading# #CrudeOil# #Fintech# #RKLB#

HTX’s Top 10 Trading Opportunities $BTC remains range-bound, trying to close above $80K, while AI tech stocks stay in focus and gold, crude oil & commodities offer long and short trades. 2 charts. 10 setups. One quick market read. Which setup catches your eye? 👀

HTX’s Top 10 Trading Opportunities $BTC stays strong, AI tech stocks remain in focus, while gold, crude oil and commodities offer opportunities on both sides. 2 charts. 10 setups. One quick market read below. What are you watching today?

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. The U.S. reportedly offered Iran a deal to halt the siege and lift sanctions in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending proxy attacks, according to Al Arabiya. Axios also reports that Rubio told several foreign counterparts the U.S. does not plan new strikes on Iran for now, with pressure shifting toward the naval blockade and new sanctions campaign instead. Crude Oil fell 4% and the 10-year treasury bond fell from 4.72% to 4.62%. 2. Global physical gold-backed ETFs $GLD attracted $6.4B of inflows last week, their largest weekly intake since January and the 3rd-largest weekly inflow on record. North America led with $4.4B, followed by Europe at $1.7B and Asia at $300M. This marked the 7th straight week of inflows, with global gold ETFs pulling in $16.4B over that stretch. Total AUM in global gold ETFs rose by $33B last week to $615B, the highest level since the second week of May. 3. Intuit $INTU reported Q4’26 revenue of $4.4B, beating estimates of $4.27B and up 14% YoY. Adjusted EPS came in at $4.03 versus $3.58 expected. Global Business Solutions revenue rose 14% YoY to $3.4B, the Online Ecosystem grew 17% YoY to $2.6B, Consumer revenue increased 14% YoY to $930M, and Credit Karma revenue rose 16% YoY to $743M. For FY27, Intuit guided revenue to $23.3B–$23.5B versus $23.72B expected, while adjusted EPS guidance of $22.88–$23.12 came in well below the $27.32 estimate. The company also raised its dividend 15% YoY to $1.38/share, bought back $5.5B of stock, and has $7.9B remaining on its authorization. Management said its strategy is to win as an AI-driven expert platform while staying disciplined on investments and scaling its big bets. 4. President Trump said the U.S. Navy has removed and/or detonated all mines from international waters in the Strait of Hormuz. He said Iran has been notified that any ship or boat placing new mines will be “immediately and systematically destroyed.” Trump added that Space Force is monitoring every square inch of the Strait, along with Pickaxe Mountain and the three previously destroyed nuclear sites, and said a “Zero Tolerance” policy on mine placement is now in full effect. 5. Canada is responding to U.S. tariffs with new tariffs of its own. The country is raising steel tariffs to 50% from 25%, while roughly 700 products will face new tariff rates of 15%, 25%, and 50%. The measures are set to take effect on September 8, marking another escalation in the U.S.–Canada trade dispute. 6. Anthropic is expected to tell IPO investors its total addressable market exceeds $30T, topping SpaceX’s $28.5T estimate, according to WSJ. The figure represents the potential value of work Anthropic believes AI models could eventually perform, not a direct revenue forecast. Anthropic generated $11.6B in Q2 revenue and could seek to raise as much as $100B at roughly a $2T valuation. IPO documents are expected within weeks, potentially setting up a September or early October listing. 7. OpenAI’s data-center head Chris Malone left the company last week, according to WSJ. Malone joined in March 2025 shortly after Stargate was announced and played a key role overseeing OpenAI’s massive data-center buildout. He previously led data-center strategy at Meta and earlier worked on data-center technology at Google. The departure comes just weeks after OpenAI also replaced its chief revenue officer, adding another senior leadership change as the company races to scale infrastructure, revenue, and compute capacity. 8. ClickHouse has surpassed $350M in annual recurring revenue, up 40% since May, as AI agents drive demand for database and observability infrastructure. OpenAI’s usage has reportedly grown roughly 10x over the past year to more than 30 petabytes of data per day, or around 30T events daily. OpenAI has also shifted parts of its log-management workload from Datadog to ClickHouse over the past year. ClickHouse was valued at $15B in January and says gross margins currently range from 50%–70%. Earlier this year, the company acquired Langfuse to expand deeper into monitoring AI applications and agents. Nebius $NBIS owned a 28% stake in ClickHouse as of May 2025, though that stake has likely been diluted by subsequent fundraising. 9. JPMorgan reiterated its Overweight rating on SpaceX $SPCX with a $240 price target, saying the company’s AI ambitions are coming into sharper focus and that it is increasingly positive on Grok. The firm highlighted SpaceX’s completed acquisition of Cursor on 8/14 as an important step in building enterprise AI capabilities. Cursor brings roughly $4B of ARR as of June 2026, with about 75% coming from businesses, which JPMorgan says should help streamline go-to-market and provide valuable model-training data. The firm also said Cursor data is already showing up in Grok’s supplemental training, with tangible improvements in recent model performance. 10. OpenAI says its new Broadcom-built Jalapeno AI chip outperformed Nvidia $NVDA GB300 in both throughput per watt and response latency during internal testing, according to Bloomberg. The chip is built specifically for inference, not training, and runs at roughly 700 watts. OpenAI plans to begin deploying Jalapeno for its models later this year, saying the performance gap widened on larger workloads, including Moonshot’s Kimi model, and that the chip has also performed well on unreleased OpenAI models. The key caveat is that Jalapeno was tested against GB300, not Nvidia’s newer Vera Rubin generation. OpenAI says a second-generation chip is already nearing tape-out, while work on a third generation has begun. 11. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 1.8M contracts, $TSLA with 1.8M contracts, $AAPL with 636K contracts, $SPCX with 548K contracts, $INTC with 540K contracts, $AMZN with 498K contracts, $MU with 483K contracts, $AMD with 403K contracts, $PLTR with 361K contracts, and $SOFI with 359K contracts. 12. Raymond James raised its Nvidia $NVDA price target to $352 from $330 and reiterated a Strong Buy rating. The firm says Nvidia’s CPU opportunity is becoming more important, especially for agentic AI workloads, even though CPUs are only about 3% of sales today. Raymond James expects CPU revenue to reach roughly 5% of total revenue by CY28 and believes Nvidia could potentially become the world leader in CPU revenue within several years. The firm also argued the stock remains inexpensive, trading at less than 15x CY27 GAAP earnings, below the S&P 500 at 18.6x, despite sales and net income growth still expected to exceed 20% in CY28. Its new $352 target is based on a 22x multiple on CY28 estimates, which Raymond James views as conservative given Nvidia’s leadership, CUDA moat, GPU performance, free cash flow, and history of trading at much higher multiples. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Is there actually an end to the Iran conflict in sight, or is talk of a deal just wishful thinking? Fox News chief foreign correspondent @TreyYingst says the real question isn't whether President Trump wants a deal — it's whether the Iranian officials negotiating with his team are actually in a position to enforce one. Yingst tells @ShannonBream on @FoxNewsSunday there doesn't appear to be any firm deadline. Meanwhile, a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports is reportedly costing Tehran hundreds of millions of dollars a day as crude oil exports continue to fall. Iran now faces a choice: reach an agreement with the Trump administration, or risk a return to war.

India has swung to buying Russian crude oil and coal to bolster its energy supplies after flows were disrupted and prices rose during the Iran conflict. ROI's @ClydeCommods explains the implications