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今天看到不少未来几个月的波段交易机会。 机会其实很多，先分享几个我自己重点关注的方向。 1）原油：更倾向于120附近找中期做空机会 (图1） 我会重点观察原油是否再次冲击120附近形成 triple top，届时考虑布局 $USO 的中期 Put，时间看到中期选举前后。 短期催化上： 1. 伊朗与美国谈判进展有限 2. 美国近期在印度洋扣押与伊朗相关船只 3. 地缘风险仍在持续推高油价预期 但我认为，原油过去几个月本质还是80-120的大区间震荡。大摩、小摩目前因为供应与储备问题偏看多油价，但我更倾向于从政治周期角度看问题。中期选举前，白宫大概率不会希望高油价长期持续，霍尔木兹海峡的风险最终仍可能被压制。如果后面形成顶部结构，我会看78附近，以及更下方67附近的gap。 当然这不是几天完成的行情，更像几个月级别的波段。 2）Fintech：依然是被低估的方向 (图2和图3） 市场现在已经开始提前交易未来的降息预期。哪怕凯文·沃什未来只是释放偏鸽派信号不用真正降息，对Fintech整体估值修复都会有帮助。 先说 $SOFI：目前周线EMA200大概在15.5附近，下方还有长期趋势线支撑，13附近我认为是非常好的中长期布局区域。 再说 $HOOD：如果未来能回踩到57左右的大级别趋势线支撑，我会认为是非常理想的低吸位置, 我会在72，67和58这几个位置加仓。 这两个票本质上都属于利率预期改善 + 风险偏好回升后的高Beta受益资产。 3）核能：估值杀完后，政策拐点正在接近 （图4） 很多人只看AI芯片，但黄仁勋其实已经反复强调未来最缺的不是算力，而是能源。问题是，能源板块目前整体依然没有被市场充分定价。 今年几个政策变化其实很关键： 1. NRC通过《GES环境简化法案》 2. Part 53 / Part 57审批大幅放松 3. 微型核反应堆审批时间缩短至6个月 4. 特朗普发布《新核能复兴白皮书》 5. DOE追加27亿美元高纯度燃料支持 这些东西短期不会立刻反映到盈利，但会影响未来几年市场对核能行业的风险定价。 $CEG ：跌破270后，原本2025-2026的大级别支撑已经失效，我现在更关注210-220附近的新趋势支撑。 $OKLO：53缺口已经回补，但考虑到大盘可能还没调整结束，我个人更希望看到42附近再出现更舒服的风险收益比。我会考虑从50附近开始分批建仓。63附近是double top颈线压力，如果后续反抽不过，理论上还有二次回踩可能。 4） $CRWD 的短空机会 把2024、2025、2026几个阶段高点连起来看，630附近是一个非常明显的大级别压力区。如果后续情绪继续冲高，我会关注这里是否出现短线做空机会。 这是纯技术面交易逻辑，不代表长期看空公司基本面。 5）RKLB：更像典型的 “sell the news” 前几天我提过, RKLB如果回踩117、109附近，其实是不错的短线博弈位置，逻辑就是交易SpaceX上市前的情绪溢价。但我认为，一旦SpaceX真正上市，RKLB当前最大的稀缺性溢价会明显下降。 如果后续情绪继续发酵，我认为140-150附近可能会开始进入高风险区域。到时候如果形成double top结构，我会更偏向于寻找反手做空机会。 今天先写这么多。 以上都只是我自己的交易框架，不构成投资建议。市场永远是动态变化的，关键还是做好仓位管理和风险控制。 #美股# #AI基建# #波段交易# #核能# #SwingTrading# #CrudeOil# #Fintech# #RKLB#

Is there actually an end to the Iran conflict in sight, or is talk of a deal just wishful thinking? Fox News chief foreign correspondent @TreyYingst says the real question isn't whether President Trump wants a deal — it's whether the Iranian officials negotiating with his team are actually in a position to enforce one. Yingst tells @ShannonBream on @FoxNewsSunday there doesn't appear to be any firm deadline. Meanwhile, a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports is reportedly costing Tehran hundreds of millions of dollars a day as crude oil exports continue to fall. Iran now faces a choice: reach an agreement with the Trump administration, or risk a return to war.

India has swung to buying Russian crude oil and coal to bolster its energy supplies after flows were disrupted and prices rose during the Iran conflict. ROI's @ClydeCommods explains the implications

🇺🇸🇮🇷 White House released full text of the MoU The points summarised are as follows: 1. The U.S. and Iran, and their allies in the current war, by signing this MoU, declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. 2. The U.S. and Iran will respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity and refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs. 3. The U.S. and Iran commit to achieving a final deal in a maximum of 60 days, extendable with mutual consent. 4. The U.S. will immediately begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic will be in proportion to the number of pre-war traffic being restored by Iran. The U.S. further undertakes to remove its military forces from the proximity of Iran within 30 days after the final deal. 5. Iran will make arrangements for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles and demining, within 30 days. Iran will conduct a dialogue with Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz. 6. The U.S. undertakes with its regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of Iran, as part of the final deal after 60 days. All required licenses, waivers, and permissions will be granted. 7. The U.S. will terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the UNSC resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral US sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed-upon schedule as part of the final deal. 8. Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The U.S. and Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpile enriched materials, pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven, with at a minimum a downblending on site under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to Iran's nuclear needs. 9. Pending the final deal, the U.S. and Iran agree to maintain the status quo. Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the U.S. will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region. 10. The U.S. undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MoU, waivers will be issued for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc. 11. The U.S. undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this MoU. The U.S. and Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations. 12. A monitoring mechanism will be established to supervise the implementation of this MoU and the subsequent deal. 13. After signing this MoU and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11, and the continuing implementation of these measures, the U.S. and Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal. 14. The final deal will be endorsed by a UNSC Resolution.

BREAKING: The US has released the full text of its 14-point "Memorandum of Understanding" with Iran. Key terms include: 1. The US, Iran, and their allies agree to immediately and permanently end military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon 2. The US and Iran agree to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity and not interfere in each other's internal affairs 3. The US and Iran commit to negotiating and reaching a final deal within 60 days, unless mutually extended 4. The US will begin removing its naval blockade immediately and fully end the blockade within 30 days 5. Iran will use its best efforts to ensure safe passage for commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days with no charge 6. The US and regional partners will develop a mutually agreed plan of at least $300 billion for Iran's reconstruction and economic development 7. The US will work toward terminating all types of sanctions against Iran, including UN, IAEA, primary, and secondary sanctions 8. Iran reaffirms that it will not procure or develop nuclear weapons and agrees to address its enriched material stockpile under IAEA supervision 9. Until a final deal is reached, Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, while the US will impose no new sanctions and deploy no additional forces 10. The US Treasury will issue waivers for Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, derivatives, and associated banking, insurance, and transportation services 11. The US will make frozen or restricted Iranian funds and assets fully available for use 12. The US and Iran will establish an executive mechanism to monitor implementation of the MOU and future compliance with the final deal 13. After signing the MOU and implementing key ceasefire, blockade, shipping, oil waiver, and asset-release provisions, the US and Iran will begin final deal negotiations 14. The final deal will be endorsed by a binding UN Security Council resolution The memorandum will trigger a 60-day window to negotiate a final deal.

Wall Street's main indexes rallied as the Dow closed at a record high after a US-Iran preliminary agreement eased inflation fears and crude oil prices fell