Why is beef so expensive in America? Start with the herd.
As of Jan 1, 2026, the US had 86.2 million cattle and calves, the smallest herd since 1951. Beef cows fell to 27.6 million, the lowest since the early 1960s.
The herd has lost about 8.5 million head (9%) since its last peak in 2019, and the 2025 calf crop was the smallest since 1941.
What shrank it: years of drought, high feed and input costs, ranchers holding back fewer heifers to rebuild, and fewer live cattle imports from Mexico after a screwworm outbreak halted trade for over a year.
The result: ground beef hit a record $7.16/lb in August, up 7.9% from a year ago.
Imports are filling some of the gap, up 17% in 2025, but cattle take years to raise. Analysts don't expect meaningful herd expansion until at least 2028.
Sources: USDA NASS Cattle Inventory (Jan 2026), US Bureau of Labor Statistics, University of Florida IFAS, American Farm Bureau Federation
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