Matt Cole (@ColeMacro) “Bitcoin fell 19% into the biggest IPO ever. Now it's down 18% heading into the s” — TopicDigg

Bitcoin fell 19% into the biggest IPO ever. Now it's down 18% heading into the second biggest. SpaceX raised $75B when it went public on June 12. In the 50 days before it listed, Bitcoin dropped 19%. Anthropic plans to raise up to $64B when it lists next week, and Bitcoin is down 18% over the same stretch. Overlay the two and they look almost the same. What happened after the SpaceX IPO is the notable part. Bitcoin bottomed 18 days after the listing, then recovered all the way. By Day 100, it was above where it started. Bitcoin around the SpaceX IPO: Day -50 to IPO day: -19% Low (Day +18): -25% Day +50: still -20% Around Day +70: a sharp rally Day +100: +3.7% From the IPO-day close to Day +100, Bitcoin gained 28%. From the low, it gained 39%. The takeaway is that the selling came in the run-up to the listing. The bottom had effectively happened by the IPO, and the recovery came relatively shortly after, and it came all at once. If Anthropic follows the same pattern, most of the drawdown is behind us, and it could reverse quickly over the next couple of months. And Bitcoin is sitting right at its 200-week moving average. Map the SpaceX path onto today's price and you get roughly $90k by late February. Markets rarely follow a comparison like this exactly. But we remain very constructive on both the technicals and the fundamentals heading into 2027, and it's not hard to imagine what the narrative would be if anything close to this plays out.