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Vivi (@vivilinsv)

@vivilinsv
TEDx Speaker | Human–AI relationships | AI & Crypto | Building @souli_ai 💗 Host @Vivi_Valley | Columnist @FTChinese | ex-Reuters TV | Author
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“做一个反共识的人”,在投资圈几乎已经成了一句老生常谈。 但红杉资本合伙人Alfred Lin 把这句话讲得更精准:真正赚大钱的,是那些既 正确,又反共识 的人。 这听起来像常识 - 直到你真的要拿真金白银、时间和声誉去下注。 他做了一个很清楚的区分(4种模式): 共识 + 正确:你会赚钱,但很难赚到超额收益,因为大家都已经看见了。 反共识 + 错误:你会亏钱,而且看起来很蠢。 共识 + 错误:你也会亏钱,但至少还能躲在人群里。 反共识 + 正确:这才是创造代际财富的地方。 他举了 Facebook / Meta 的例子。Facebook IPO 之后,很多投资者把它视为一次失败的上市,股价长期低于发行价长达一年多之久。但如果有人真正研究了这家公司,看懂了它在移动端转型的潜力,在这一年多的窗口期,以低于IPO的价格买入,并且有耐心持有,现在可以获得大约 15 倍的回报。 这才是真正的重点。 真正的优势,不是为了反共识而反共识。那只是自我感动。 真正的优势,是在共识形成之前,看见一个结构性变化,并且有耐心熬过那段“市场觉得你错了”的时间。 Alfred Lin 把这个逻辑延伸到 Nvidia、Tesla、SpaceX、TSMC、Broadcom、OpenAI、Anthropic,以及下一代可能取代 “Magnificent 7” 的公司。 他的更大观点是:科技会不断重新定义行业边界。 零售业本可以发明电商,但最后是 Amazon 做到了。 传统汽车业本可以主导电动车,但最后是 Tesla 做到了。 传统航天工业本可以重塑太空产业,但最后是 SpaceX 做到了。 每一个周期里,既有玩家都会低估技术重新划分产业边界的速度。而那些长期抗拒技术变化的人,往往都会站在历史错误的一边。 投资最难的,不是看见今天已经显而易见的东西, 而是在它变得显而易见之前,就看见它。 你找到那条既正确,又少有人走的路了吗?
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Vitalik 的理想主义,正是加密世界现在最需要的 — 这是我看完 @VitalikButerin 最新长帖后的最强感受。 在他最新的长帖中,Vitalik 明确表示以太坊基金会正在主动变小、变得更专注、更坚持原则,而不是追逐短期 hype 或试图成为“中心”。他强调 @ethereumfndn 只是以太坊生态中的“一个节点”,而非中心;要追求 longevity(长期存续)而非 breadth(广度);并把重心放在真正能体现 Ethereum 核心价值的 CROPS(抗审查/捕获、抗中心化、开放、隐私、安全)上。 此文一出,犹如惊涛骇浪,引发加密圈极大的震动。 各种批评声迎面而来,有人说 EF 人才大量流失、领导力缺失;有人批评基金会主动缩小规模是“放弃责任”、无力支持生态;也有人把 @Bankless 联合创始人 David Hoffman 卖出所有 ETH 解读为长期支持者信心崩塌的信号;还有人指责 Vitalik 过于理想化,只谈形式化验证、减少中间人、抗审查等长远目标,却忽视短期执行力和价格表现;甚至有人认为 Vitalik 影响力下降,标志着以太坊正在失去方向。 这些声音可以理解。2026 年以来 EF 确实有较多核心贡献者离开,David Hoffman 的举动也引发了不小讨论,再加上 ETH 近期价格表现,很多人自然会感到焦虑和失望。 但我认为,这些批评恰恰忽略了 Vitalik 这篇帖子的核心意义。 他真正想表达的,是以太坊不能变成另一个只追求速度和短期叙事的普通公链。真正的加密精神,从来不是“谁更快、谁更会讲故事”,而是去中心化作为对抗审查和控制的根本保障。 抗审查作为不可妥协的底线,是在安全、去中心化、可扩展性三难困境中,依然选择不轻易 surrender 的那条最难的路。 Vitalik 反复强调的“Ethereum must be impressive”,不是要追 250ms 延迟和 100 万 TPS,而是要在 AI 时代依然保持可验证的安全性、真正的最小中间人依赖、以及不依赖社会共识救场的强健共识。这些目标听起来“不讲道理”,但正是因为不讲道理,才让以太坊至今依然与众不同。 更重要的是,他把 EF 定位为“一个节点”而非中心,这其实是把以太坊推向更彻底的 permissionless 方向。就像比特币一样 - 没有强大基金会、没有中央金库、没有单一实体掌控,却依然是整个加密世界最坚韧的存在。EF 主动变小、卖更少的 ETH、把更多空间留给生态其他参与者,这不是软弱,而是成熟。真正的去中心化,从来不是靠一个组织“罩着”所有人,而是让协议本身、让无数自愿的 builder 和用户去共同维护。 这更像一场大型社会实验:在一个充满 AI、资本和权力诱惑的世界里,能否有一个重要项目,依然坚持最初的 cypherpunk 精神,不被短期利益和外部压力完全同化。 我个人非常认同 Vitalik 的这个方向。加密世界最酷的地方,从来不是谁先上市、谁 TPS 最高,而是它曾经承诺过的金融主权、审查抵抗、以及不被任何单一力量完全掌控的可能。如果连以太坊都放弃这些,只剩执行力和营销,那加密精神就真的丢了。 Vitalik 的理想主义,正是当下最稀缺、也最需要被守护的东西。短期噪音再大,长期方向更重要。 支持那些还在为真正去中心化、抗审查和长期韧性而努力的人。 Ethereum 还在走最难的那条路,而这,正是它最有价值的地方。 @VitalikButerin 你仍是我们心中那个带着天真腼腆笑容的理想主义小天才 - Respect. 🫰
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Some of my perspective on where the @ethereumfndn is going. First of all, this is only my own view. The board is not just me, and I have no extra special powers on the board that the other board members do not. @aerugoettinea is the one executing much of this transition. My input has been largely on technical questions. The board is in the process of expanding, and my own power within the org will continue to decrease, which is honestly what I want. The 2025 era brought many important improvements to EF and its ability to execute. Many issues were resolved, and EF continues to benefit from its improved efficiency and greater focus on concrete goals to this day. And so with those problems resolved, early this year, the largest remaining hole that I perceived was something different nagging at me: I would regularly spot people saying things like "vitalik says these beautiful things about ethereum needing to be decentralized, and have privacy, and be a sanctuary technology, but why do the EF's actions not reflect that?" Now, you may have been hearing something different. You may not have been sensing a feeling of crisis at all, and maybe were hearing people saying that finally we were taking execution and BD seriously and the main task for us is to keep going that way and be even better and faster. Then probably there is genuine difference between you and me, in what kinds of criticism I take most seriously, and what kinds of critics through their criticism are most able to make me feel pain. As an analogy, let's briefly switch over to a different domain. One belief you can have about Google is that it is a success story, and has brought a lot of good to humanity in organizing the world's information. Another belief you can have about Google is that they had a beautiful idealistic beginning, but at some point the corruption of mainstream corporate attitudes seeped in, and they slowly bit by bit completely abandoned the "don't be evil" slogan. My belief on Google specifically is probably somewhere between the two. BUT, if you had taken me back in time to ~2008, and offered me a button to press to make Google one or two standard deviations more "dogmatic", eg. give Richard Stallman permanent veto power over some key policies, I would immediately press it. Why? Because a choice for one company is not a choice for the world, or even one country. Google existed and exists in the context of a technology industry generally drifting away from early idealistic don't-be-evil roots and toward greed for financial gain, totalizing visions of accelerated superintelligence, infiltration by sociopaths, and craven capitulation to (or worse, active participation in) government pressure for ideological control, surveillance and war. And so *one company* doing something different, positioning itself to be what George Bernard Shaw calls the Unreasonable Man, resisting the trend of the times, would have been better for freedom, balance of power and stability of society as a whole, than *all* large companies bending to dominant trends. This is a part of my version of pluralism. This line of thinking is not just mine, but I also is not too far off from what Aya and others had in mind with the Mandate. Now how does this all get to the role of the EF? EF is not a "center of Ethereum", rather EF is "one node, with a defined purpose, alongside other nodes". We've always said that the EF should be the latter, but many in the Ethereum ecosystem (and even within the EF) wanted us to be the former. Now, we are taking action to ensure that we will be the latter. This is particularly important because EF is a limited organization, with limited resources and limited organizational capacity. The EF has only ~0.16% of all ETH (less than many other individual ETH holders), whereas among other blockchains it's common for "the central foundation" to have 10-50%. Fiscally, the EF was originally designed to fulfill a limited work scope defined in the token sale docs and other pre-launch materials (building the chain software; getting through Frontier, Homestead, Metropolis, Serenity), which was fully completed in 2022; it was not designed to be an eternal steward. And so today, the EF is choosing to use its remaining resources to pursue longevity over breadth (yes, this means we sell less ETH). The EF focuses *specifically* on those activities critical to the success of ethereum as a censorship/capture-resistant, open, private and secure system, that would not happen otherwise. This means making hard choices, and in some cases even activities that we highly approve of and people that we highly respect becoming outside of the EF. People of great technical talent, public respect and even alignment with the mission and CROPS being outside of the EF is in fact necessary if we want important tasks to be able to attract outside capital. This also means the EF taking opinionated stands culturally. This is all intended in cooperation with all other parts of ethereum. We recognize that many other parts of the ethereum world highly respect CROPS and related values. But highly respecting is not the same as choosing to specialize and totally dedicate to a domain (Compare in a different domain: I think reducing animal cruelty is important, and I like vegan food, but am not full unconditional vegan myself) EF is still in a transition period, and we expect its new long-term form to stabilize over the next few months. What are the guiding principles of this new form? Again, I am only one person, but I can give my answer from a technical perspective (there are also critical non-technical aspects). At the core, *Ethereum must be impressive*. We are living in an age of highly intelligent AI and all kinds of other technological acceleration. "Status quo EVM, with a hard fork or two a year to optimize for short-term needs of users" is not interesting. To some, "impressive" means: 250ms latency and 1M TPS. I think Ethereum trying to go that route is a mistake. Being as fast and as scalable as possible, and only a small epsilon more decentralized than the others, is a route to mediocrity, and if we try it we will lose. I think Ethereum should scale. But I think Ethereum should strive the hardest to be deeply impressive in a different dimension: the CROPS dimension. This means things like: * Provably bug-free Ethereum. This is a goal that all cybersecurity researchers would have thought is absurd and impossible, up until roughly 6 months ago. Now, it's on the cusp of being possible, thanks to AI-assisted formal verification. So we should be frontrunners in doing this. * Available chain consensus. Ethereum is, and with lean consensus will cotninue to be, the ONLY chain that has both (i) traditional-BFT style properties that it's safe under asynchrony up to a high level of fault tolerance, and (ii) the bitcoin PoW-style property that under synchrony it's safe up to 49% attackers. As far as I can tell, literally no other chain has this or is planning for it; bitcoin goes for (ii) only and most other chains go for (i) only. Some will remember I fought hard for this, Unreasonably insisting that it is not OK for ethereum to rely on social consensus and hard forks to rescue ethereum from 34% of nodes going offline. It's OK for chains like hyperledger, bnb, solana, tempo, etc. It's not OK for bitcoin or ethereum or eg. zcash. * Intermediary minimization. The fact that smart contract wallets, protocols like railgun, etc have to send transactions through intermediaries to get included onchain is honestly embarrassing, and it's a constant point of fragility. Hence the work on FOCIL and EIP-8141 (and 7701 and years of work before) to make transaction sending intermediary-minimized with public mempool and strong inclusion properties, in a truly general-purpose way, that covers not just eg. secp256r1, but also privacy protocols and much more. Kohaku is pushing intermediary minimization at the user layer, pulling Ethereum away from the dystopian status quo world where our wallets don't even verify the chain, send our private data out to a dozen third-party servers, and toward a brighter CROPS future. Some of these goals are Unreasonable - maybe Ethereum would be "fine" getting only 50% of the way - what if we depend on intermediaries, but make it easy to switch? But going 50% of the way would not make Ethereum Deeply Impressive in the CROPS way. So we push for 100%. Fortunately all these goals are compatible with high TPS, this is a major focus of research (esp. on scaling the state). Well-designed L2s can also help, especially L2s optimized for specific applications (eg. high-volume trading, privacy...). These goals are even compatible with significantly lower slot times, thanks to Raul's work on erasure-coded P2P, and many other optimizations. The most high-value "product" of the ethereum blockchain, financially speaking, is ETH the asset. Ethereum secures $250 billion of ETH. The types of properties of Ethereum that I mentioned above are very good for ETH the asset. Nearly 90% of my net worth is in ETH, and most of the remainder is ~$40m of onchain fiat of which every dollar has already been allocated for some open-source biotech or software or hardware initiative. That said, there are aspects of supporting ETH the asset - *necessary* aspects even - that are outside the scope of the EF. This is where we need other heroes (some of whom hold more ETH than the EF does) to step in and help. EF has been recently thinking more about how it will relate to other such organizations, and give them needed initial support. EF will be a smaller ship than in previous years, a more opinionated one - in some cases more opinionated in ways that might be difficult to comprehend - but a longer-lasting one, and one suited to making sure that ethereum brings something meaningful to the world. We are grateful to all those inside and outside the EF who are helping to make this happen.
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Manus事件真正让人不寒而栗的,不只是交易被撤销。而是它事实上否定了过去十多年中国科技创业默认的一整套退出逻辑。 过去大家默认的规则是: 中国做研发, 中国搭团队, 中国验证市场, 然后通过离岸架构、全球融资、国际化运营, 最终走向全球资本市场或海外并购退出。 这套模式支撑了无数中国科技公司的崛起。 而现在,Manus事件传递出的新信号却是:你不能在享受中国红利之后,再自由决定未来归属。 甚至有“聪明人”出来点拨:“如果你不想成为中国技术体系的一部分,那你从第一天就应该离开。一开始就去美国/新加坡/欧洲。创业者必须想清楚自己未来属于谁。” 这话听起来很有逻辑。但细想之下,其实非常荒谬。 因为创业从来不是一条预设好的直线。 市场会变。融资环境会变。团队会变。监管会变。战略当然也会变。 Pivot(转型)本就是创业的常态,而不是例外。 如果连根据现实调整方向、重组架构、改变战略路径的基本自由都没有 - 那创业还有什么意义? 这就像谈恋爱时要求:“你第一天就必须想清楚要不要结婚,否则别谈。” 荒不荒谬? 当然 - Manus拿了地方资源,后来裁掉团队、另起炉灶, 你可以说:不厚道。不体面。甚至不道德。 但不道德,不等于违法。 难道因为前任支持过你、给过你资源、陪你成长 - 你就永远不能分手,不能开始新关系? 最可怕的不是交易黄了。而是它释放出的制度信号:你并不真正拥有你创造的东西。 你拥有的,只是“在系统允许范围内的暂时使用权”。 当你的选择不再符合更高层意志时 - 规则可以被重新解释。边界可以被重新划线。过去默认允许的路径,也可以突然被否定。 这对创业环境的伤害远超 Manus & Meta deal本身。 因为它打击的不是一家公司的退出。而是所有在中国的创业者对以下三件事的信心:产权边界是否清晰?规则是否稳定可预期?战略调整是否仍被允许? 规则越模糊,惩罚越任意,创新就越难真正繁荣。 因为创业者最怕的不是竞争。而是跑到半路,发现终点线被人改了。
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