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这几天，SpaceX 官宣 Fram2 任务指挥官王纯（Chun Wang）未来将参与更深空探索计划，再次把这位神秘的华人比特币大佬推到聚光灯下。 王纯，出生于天津，2023年成为马耳他公民，企业家、商业航天员，也是数字货币矿池“鱼池”（F2Pool）以及区块链质押平台 stakefish 的联合创始人。 如果未来载人火星任务成行，他很可能成为华人历史上距离火星最近的人之一。 但比起财富和头衔，更有意思的是：他到底是个什么样的人？ • 曾经的搜狐程序员 • 一个“标准程序员 + 太空极客”混合体 • 低调、内向，像一个纯粹而孤独的探索者 • 痴迷旅行，热爱坐高铁、飞机四处跑，自称“高铁千次男” • 对数字和统计近乎执着，钟爱各种计数 • 戴着那块廉价的卡西欧 F-91W 上太空 • 坚信比特币未来会成为火星时代货币 • 遇到难题时，不是熬夜，而是选择先睡一觉再思考 • 不婚主义者 • 川粉 • 健康的生酮饮食者 程序员们，我们可以拥有梦想, 也可以奔赴星辰大海。 只要坚持，代码之外，同样有远方! #王纯# #ChunWang# #SpaceX# #Fram2# #比特币# #太空# #food# #生酮#

My 36th flight of 2025 was fram2. My 36th flight of 2026 is an Ultimate Aviation helicopter (ZS-RDW) flight from Icetugs Argus to Bouvet Island. This is my 1146th flight of all time. Bouvet Island (ISO 3166-2:BV) has become the 150th (of 249) country/territory I have visited. 🇧🇻

《超级富豪的世界》 昨天关于王纯 @satofishi 拿500个BTC测试钱包是否安全的case引起蛮多讨论的，包括有人怀疑是否真实。 他原贴里专门留了黑客盗走BTC后的钱包地址：14H12PpQNzrS1y1ipjF4mPuVgQEpgfGA79 用区块浏览器打开后可以看到盗窃发生在2024年2月12日，黑客后续在15日已经逐步把490个BTC拆分洗到了无数小地址中。 按当时BTC 50000的价格，他拿了2500万来实验钱包是否安全，然后黑客拿走了2450万，慷慨的留给了他50万。 不过让我更惊叹的是他的心态。 2月12日被盗后他的推特丝毫没有任何情绪变化，依然淡定的记录自己的飞行经历，分享使用Vision Pro在经济舱的体验更好，完全没有损失一笔巨款的懊悔，简直大心脏。 如果不是这两天自己爆料，没有人知道他还被盗过如此巨额财富。 难道500BTC对他来说也只是一点欢乐豆而已？撒在地上脏了就算了？😂😂 找了几个数据来源想看看他到底身家多少，但因为他是BTC 远古恐龙，大量BTC很可能存在冷钱包中无法统计。 目前只能知道被识别出的两个主要地址共持有约 12.8 万枚 ETH，3000一个算的话大概3.84亿美金。 然后他还持有两家重量级现金牛企业： F2Pool（鱼池），曾是全球最大的比特币矿池，目前依然排前三。 StakeFish： 全球领先的质押服务商（Staking），管理着数以十亿计的资产规模。 王纯身家最硬核的证明是他 全资赞助并担任指挥官 的 SpaceX Fram2 任务。虽然具体金额未公开，但参考 SpaceX 过往的包机任务（如 Inspiration4），这种包下整个载人龙飞船的私人任务成本通常在 1.5 亿至 2 亿美元 之间。 保守估计： 王纯的身家在 25 亿美元以上。 这样看起来，少2500万美金也就是少了1%的身家，似乎，好像，的确没那么肉疼？😂😂😂 但即便这么有钱，他看起来好像生活过的并没有那么穷奢极欲，11月底分享的坐飞机经历还在说熊市来了，要坐经济舱出行。 超级富豪的世界，真的不太懂。今天不吃牛排了，换成KFC😅

The CIA’s Post-War Vassalization of Japan Until 1941, Japan carried out these crimes against humanity with the assistance of the United States and Britain. And the pro-Kuomintang China Lobby inside the United States and the Wisemen (John J. McCloy, Dean Acheson, Averell Harriman, etc.) prevented the Roosevelt Administration from even engaging with the Communist Party of China led by Mao Zedong. This was despite the fact that General Joseph Stilwell, Colonel David Barrett, and John S. Service described the People’s Liberation Army as the most effective fighting force against the Japanese Imperial Army, as opposed to Chiang Kai Shek who was more concerned with repressing internal opponents and had zero interest in uniting with the Communist Party to fight against the Japanese occupation, despite the support for a united front from Mao and Stilwell. That year though, the US, Britain and the Netherlands finally decided to take action against Japan for its imperial aggression in China and the Asian continent, imposing crushing oil embargo. It was on that basis that Japan attacked Pearl Harbor, bringing the United States into World War II. However, after World War II, John J. McCloy became the President of the World Bank and decided that the new strategy was to once again build up Japan as an opponent to China and the Soviet Union. According to Washington and the US Treasury, the policy was supposed to be that all Asian countries are subservient to a new Japanese empire that was really just a colony of the US. And the role of this new US-led Asian order is that all countries on the continent were to export raw materials to Japan so that they can be turned into manufactured goods. This strongly differed from the approach of US President Ulysses S. Grant who toured Asia after leaving office and advocated for China to lead the way on the continent’s industrial and commercial development. He further emphasized a US-China relationship that is based on mutual respect and explicitly denounced European colonialism. And now newly declassified JFK Files released by the Trump Administration reveal how Japan, through the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, became a permanent US vassal during the Cold War with CIA funding. One document in particular from March 1996 reveals that Washington and Tokyo were still working overtime to hide the existence of the CIA’s Tokyo Station. And their reasoning was the protect this notion that Washington created that Japan was a sovereign state. The US State Department memo was titled “Official Acknowledgement of Tokyo Station” and it shows former US Vice President turned Ambassador to Japan Walter Mondale, along with Japanese officials in Tokyo, in full damage-control mode. Two years before, the New York Times wrote a report exposing secret CIA funding for Japan’s ruling right-wing Liberal Democratic Party during the 1950s and 1960s. Their fear was that if they confirmed the CIA’s presence in Tokyo, it would re-ignite the scandal by confirming the allegations in the NYT’s report. Then-Japanese Foreign Affairs Minister Yohei Kono warned Mondale to keep it secret because the official confirmation would hurt the LDP far more than the NYT’s allegations and threaten the entire post-war security framework between the Washington and Tokyo because it would expose Japan as nothing more than an imperial colony dependent on the United States. Kono had previously claimed, in response to NYT’s allegations, that Japan had “no knowledge” of any organized CIA presence inside the country.

🇺🇸🇯🇵🇰🇷⚔️🇨🇳🇰🇵🧵 HOW THE UNITED STATES TURNED JAPAN AND SOUTH KOREA INTO IMPERIAL COLONIES AS PART OF ITS COLD WAR AGAINST CHINA AND THE DPRK American policy in the Asia-Pacific has always been centered in building up Japan’s industry and leveraging Tokyo’s power at the expense of the economic independence of other country’s in the region. This doctrine goes all the way back to the early 20th century as Theodore Roosevelt committed the United States to the establishment of a global empire and JP Morgan created a monopoly over large sectors of the American economy in the aftermath of the Panic of 1907. The Meiji Restoration, which established the Empire of Japan, brought industrialization and modernization to the Japanese economy. However, this was mostly done on the backs of foreign loans and had been a continuation of work already theorized in China under Sun Yat Sen, whose Three Principles (Nationalism, Democracy, People’s Livelihood) inspire Chinese socialism today and were based on the state-led economic frameworks of Alexander Hamilton and Abraham Lincoln. Sun himself was educated in Hawaii by protégés of Lincoln. And it ultimately led to this notion among leaders in Tokyo that Japan is now becoming a partner of the Anglo-American Empire. A major reason why this was is because Theodore Roosevelt agreed in the Taft-Katsura Agreement that the United States would give Japan control over the Korean Peninsula if they did not interfere with Washington’s violent seizure of the Philippines. However, what Tokyo didn’t notice at first is that they were not becoming a regional empire but a proxy of American imperialism. From there, the groundwork was set for Japan’s wars of mass genocide against the people of China, Korea, Russia and across the Asian continent. After its war with Russia in 1905, Tokyo fully annexed Korea in 1910, which would then be used as a launching pad for their wars against China. The Japanese previously launched a failed war against China in 1894, after which European colonial empires set up spheres of influence as part of the Century of Humiliation. And then in 1931 and 1937, as a result of false flag incidents staged by the Japanese Kwantung Army along the South Manchuria Railway in Mukden and the Marco Polo Bridge near Beijing, Japan launched the Asia-Pacific Theatre of World War II waging mass genocide and engaging in sexual exploitation against the people of China, Korea and across Asia. Unit 731 was established in Manchuria under the command of Dr. Shiro Ishii and with the approval of the puppet dictatorship in Japanese-occupied Manchuria led by former Emperor of the Qing Dynasty Puyi. 731 carried out some of the most cruel and tortuous human experimentations against civilian victims, including infecting prisoners with deadly diseases and amputating their limbs, conducting vivisection and organ harvesting, suffocating victims and hypobaric chambers and exposing prisoners to chemical, explosive and biological weapons. Even more outrageous is the fact that Ishii escaped prosecution after the US granted him immunity in exchange for research from Unit 731. And some of that research was used by the CIA for Project MKUltra.

I asked Claude to apply a capital cycle analysis to $MU. Here's what it came up with: Net reading: 11 of 14 capital cycle signals are bearish or strongly bearish. The framework reads this as late-cycle, not early/mid-cycle. The two unambiguously bullish signals (equipment lead times, industry concentration) are eroding rather than strengthening. Insights Yielded by Capital Cycle Analysis: 1) "Structural change" rhetoric is itself diagnostic. The capital cycle framework treats coordinated industry-wide CEO claims of regime change as evidence of late-cycle euphoria. The same language was deployed by the same CEOs (Mehrotra at Micron specifically) in 2017–2018 and was wrong. Bayesian base rates argue against accepting the current claims at face value. The previous analysis under-weighted this base-rate evidence. 2) Look at total capital flowing into the supply curve, not just incumbent capex. The structural-change analysis focused on Big Three capex. The capital cycle lens forces aggregation of all capital flowing into memory output: a) Incumbent capex: ~$104B in 2026 across DRAM + NAND; b) CXMT IPO proceeds: ~$4.2B (with state-aligned co-financing many multiples larger); c) YMTC capacity additions (privately financed) d) Substitute technology capital (Cerebras, photonic startups, CXL controller designers) — billions of dollars of equity raised to reduce HBM intensity per dollar of AI compute deployed. When aggregated, total effective supply-side capital formation in 2026 is materially higher than the Big Three capex alone suggests. The supply response is being underestimated. 3) The customer base is doing exactly what late-cycle customers do. Hyperscalers locking in 3–5 year LTAs, pre-ordering 2027 NAND, building strategic inventory — these are not signs of confident long-cycle visibility, they are signs of late-cycle scarcity panic. Historically (DRAM 2017–2018, oil 2008, shipping 2007), customer pre-buying at peak prices is followed by sharp inventory destocking when prices roll over. The structural-change narrative frames LTA penetration as a benefit; the capital cycle frames it as a peak signal. 4) Multiple expansion + earnings expansion = asymmetric downside. The previous analysis flagged the 15x NTM P/E multiple as aggressive (referring to UBS PT raise). The capital cycle framework sharpens this: when both earnings and multiple are at peak, the compound drawdown when either reverts is severe. Memory historically goes from 60% gross margin to negative gross margin and from 10x P/E to <5x P/E. Even a modest reversion to 35% gross margin and 8x P/E from current levels implies a 60–75% equity drawdown for the memory primaries — without any disorderly cycle. 5) Supply lag is real but not unique. The bullish point about EUV/TSV/hybrid bonding lead times is correct but mis-weighted. The capital cycle history of other capital-intensive industries (oil refining, shipbuilding, semiconductor wafer fab) shows that long lead times increase the eventual amplitude of the down-cycle: capital decisions made at peak are not reversible when conditions soften, leading to capacity overhang. Long lead times delay the down-cycle; they do not abolish it. 6) China is the textbook capital-cycle disruptor. In Chancellor's historical case studies (steel, shipbuilding, solar, panels, batteries), state-backed Chinese entrants repeatedly compressed margins of consolidated Western/Korean/Japanese oligopolies once technology gaps narrowed. The U.S. equipment restrictions on China have created the illusion that this dynamic is paused, but the data shows CXMT doubled DRAM share in 18 months and is targeting domestic HBM3. The structural-change analysis appropriately flagged this; the capital cycle framework would weight it heavier as the single most important multi-year risk. 7) Substitute capital formation is its own supply curve. The capital cycle framework treats financing flows into substitutes as a parallel supply expansion. Cerebras' $5.5B IPO, Marvell's $5B Celestial acquisition, the Sandisk/SK hynix HBF JV, and the CXL ecosystem (ALAB, MRVL, MCHP) are collectively financing "HBM intensity reduction." Even if HBM unit demand is met, the value capture per dollar of AI compute is diluted. Capital is flowing in adjacent to the memory primaries to reduce the share of AI spend that ends up in their P&L. 8) The bull case relies disproportionately on demand visibility. The capital cycle warns against demand-anchored theses. The bull case requires AI capex to continue at current levels or accelerate, hyperscaler ROI economics to remain favorable, sovereign AI to scale, and inference workloads not to migrate to non-HBM architectures. Each of these is plausible; the joint probability that all hold through 2028 is materially lower than the headline narrative suggests. 9) Sell-side estimate trajectory is itself a signal. UBS's PT trajectory ($535 → $1,625, a 3x increase in one revision) is historically associated with peak euphoria. Estimate revisions of this magnitude have a poor forward record. The framework would treat the velocity of estimate revisions as a contra-signal. 10) Where the asymmetry sits. The capital cycle framework reframes the risk/reward calculation. Even if the bull thesis is right and earnings hold through 2028, the upside from current levels is modest (multiple expansion has already happened). If the bull thesis is partially wrong — say, 2028 brings 25% peak-to-trough EPS decline rather than 50% — the equity drawdown is still material because multiples will compress simultaneously. The asymmetry is not favourable at current valuations. Bottom line: The structural change thesis was directionally correct but materially overweighted by the original analysis. The capital cycle framework appropriately reweights toward supply-side caution and treats current peak conditions, peak valuations, peak management confidence, and accelerating capital inflows as a coherent set of late-cycle signals. The memory industry has undergone real and beneficial structural change in shape, but the empirical base rate against the "cycle has been abolished" claim is overwhelming. The economic characteristics of memory businesses have improved but have not been transformed into stable, compounding, low-volatility ones — and the next 18–30 months are statistically more likely to mark the end of this up-cycle than a transition to a new regime.

I created a training pipeline to remove propaganda and gaslighting from Chinese models! I'm thrilled to announce LazarusAI's ReAligned-Qwen3.5 series of models, finetuned to reduce Chinese ideological bias and censorship, refusal behavior, and state-narrative framing I use SFT + GRPO pipeline with a dataset crafted to target the taxonomy of chinese censorship and bias, along with my ReAligned classifier model as a GRPO reward signal.

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