Star@Day1Global Podcast (@starzq)

btc 金子 银子 被加息预期压制 金子已经和10y 有一些脱钩了。利率up已经超了 对贵金属已经有点免疫了 然后后面 nfp不及预期 市场会从加息看向降息。反弹最凶应该是金子 银子 btc

一边是海水一边是火焰。Meta暴涨，半导体硬件大跌。如何解读背后的机遇、市场的误读以及风险？ $META 暴涨拉升因为要转型云服务商二房东出租多余算力。1GW目前能租200亿年收入按85%运营利润，每股净利润$5，提升EPS预期超过15%。 现在Meta总算力明年20GW，AI算力13GW，拿一半多余的出来，股价还不暴涨？做白日梦都不能这么笑醒的。怎么看？ 算力多余了，AI Capex投资第一个信号，市场先跑为快，肯定半导体硬件大跌。但是首先简单批判一下。小扎这种干啥啥不行套路，不是说整体算力多余。 这种小作文上季度财报小扎就已经透露了，算力建多了，可能拿出来卖。资本市场也在惩罚他一路忽悠从元宇宙到AI自己模型的干啥啥不行。然后资本开支ai capex 还增长近1500亿/年，和Google，亚马逊和微软不一样，都是自用没有云服务收入，自然股价和估值都不行。 现在作为投机份子，第一个说算力多余要转型，那么市场第一时间暴涨“奖励”他肯定AI capex 不加投资，还能把多余资产利用产生现金流，转型云服务商，当然这种假设是合理。 但是Google目前限制Meta使用 Gemini 模型，因为 Meta 需要的计算能力超过 Google 能提供的规模。 这说明Meta出租算力不等于AI算力需求崩了。 而是在于Meta自己管理筹划和错配，不是谁都能搞好云服务商的，这背后新的业务需要真正的高效匹配/低延迟/服务顶级模型/每GW的token/长期客户生态锁定。 可以理解为Meta自己多余的员工宿舍，想卖出真的服务型顶级公寓的租赁价，可能么？ 当然对于简单粗暴靠出租GPU挣钱的云服务商边际利润竞争大。但是真正市场缺的的是一个AI云服务商的“整体生态软服务”。 大概率是Meta自己算力部署特别是训练阶段冗余了，这个完全可以预测出，看看他模型开发啥也不是。然后服务自己广告方面的推理阶段算力，干不过Google的高效，多余了算力出来卖还能吹一个云服务商转型故事。 当然对于Meta业绩收入肯定有提高，但是不要过于乐观，特别是他那个多余算力买不出什么高价，真正市场稀缺的反而是一个结构性故事。 最稀缺的不是 GPU，而是可用适配、低延迟满负荷、可计费能形成客户锁定的推理产能和云服务商的管理能力。不是谁想进就进的。 对于客户安全合规长期性承诺，稳定高效最重要，不是你觉得多余算力想卖就卖。当然这种都抢着买的话，难道不是说市场对于AI云服务需求巨大么？高毛利吸引新玩家。 对于小扎就是投机份子，刚和几家neocloud签了大单，看到SpaceX卖算力挣钱，然后还能讲故事拉股价，就开始放风忽悠市场了。 详细的云服务/半导体硬件分析 我稍后有时间系统解读这个事件性的重大冲击 $GOOG $MSFT $AMZN $INTC $MU $SOXX $NBIS $SPCX

We’ve had lots of questions from our investor community looking for thoughts on OUSD, and so I thought I’d share my direct views here for anyone. Stablecoin networks are platform and network effect businesses that are established over a long period of time, tend towards winner-take-most market structures, and resemble other internet platform utility markets. There are several layers that drive this. First, stablecoin networks effectively act as public protocols and software layers on the internet and their network strength is a matter of the number and range of applications and services that integrate to the network. Every time a developer or service provider integrates to the network, it brings more network effects. This attracts more developers and adds more utility and more network effects. This then drives demand for the digital currency itself, which then reinforces these network effects through liquidity network effects. We have realized this at a massive scale with the USDC network today — thousands upon thousands of services integrate with our network, which in turn provides immense utility not just to each application, but to users as a whole who benefit massively from the reach and interoperability that exists. This drives user and developer preference further. We’ve invested in building that ecosystem over nearly a decade, and now it’s accelerating as mainstream institutions come onto the network, connecting their customers and users. We add to that utility by building software stacks that further expand and strengthen the network — protocols like CCTP and Gateway, which promote interoperability, safety and liquidity around the world. This expands the target surface area for app builders and developers, making it easy for them to tap into the liquidity and network effects that already exist. We are now seeing that stack get pulled into all kinds of chains, permissioned L2s, networks being built by governments, and so much more. The second layer is that of liquidity network effects. This is fundamental. Liquidity begets liquidity. For a stablecoin to achieve scale and utility, it needs to be highly liquid, both on a primary basis (e.g., through all the major financial market centers in the world, with world class direct banking liquidity) and on a secondary basis both by being available and tradeable for retail and institutional clients in every geography and against every fiat instrument in the world. People who want to access and move value need to be able to easily get in and out of that digital currency. Here, we’ve invested nearly a decade in building out that liquidity, and it is now entrenched in exchanges, DeFI venues, and with PSPs, payments firms, regional exchanges, and so many others. Establishing these liquidity network effects also involves building global regulatory infrastructure and ensuring that the stablecoin is available under various regimes around the world. Today, USDC is in the top 3 most liquid digital assets in the world, and it falls off sharply after that. BTC, USDT and USDC have extraordinary liquidity. The closest other dollar stables are like 10x smaller and that liquidity tends to be concentrated in promotional books in a single exchange, whereas USDC liquidity is dispersed widely across dozens and dozens of surfaces. Building this liquidity has been a nearly decade-long task that we continue. A third layer of network strength comes from the deep integration with the policy and regulatory environment — in many cases, years of effort to build licensing (e.g., USDC is the only large global stablecoin currently available in all of Europe or Japan), and more regimes for stablecoins are coming online, with Circle leading the way in ensuring that USDC is officially recognized, registered, licensed and accepted in the most important markets in the world. On the back of this is the work of building global banking, reserve management and treasury and liquidity management that can operate this on a nearly 24/7 basis in markets and banking systems globally. This globalization effort is a massive investment that we have made over the years. All of these investments by Circle and our global ecosystem of thousands of partners have delivered the net result of providing the world’s most trusted and available digital dollar infrastructure—a utility that any user, developer, or business can freely and easily tap into. And we do not intend to slow down. All of this compounds and shows in the numbers. In Q1 2026, according to third-party analysts (Artemis) who track stablecoin adoption, USDC handled nearly $30T in onchain transactions, representing 80% of all dollar stablecoin transactions on blockchains. USDT handled the remaining 20% of transactions. All of the combined remaining dollar stablecoins handled a total of 0% of transactions (i.e., < 0.5%). While other stablecoins may have some circulation, most of that is through promotions and incentives, the actual usage is extremely limited—because of the extremely limited liquidity and network utility that exists for these coins. But my thoughts on the competitive landscape are not just about the strength of our network—there are also considerations around any new initiative. Several perspectives and positioning have been shared about how something like OUSD improves on something like USDC. 1) Free mint and burn. The argument suggests that existing stablecoins charge burn fees, and payments firms should not need to pay these (despite the fact that the entire payment industry is built on small bps fees on various ingress and egress points on their networks). There are structural market realities built around the fact that some stablecoins impose very large redemption fees and have limited redemption facilities – the impact of this is that stablecoins with strong redemption facilities, good liquidity and no fees become the offramp for their competitor stablecoins. It may seem easy to say one will offer unlimited and free redeems, however market reality likely forces other behavior. This can be addressed – and is addressed by Circle – through contractual mechanisms vs. a blanket fee exemption. 2) Everybody wins and shares. While this sounds good in principle, the reality of the market and market opportunity is quite different. Today, Circle shares the majority of its income with its distribution partners, and we continue to lean hard into expanding those partnerships with leading companies across every sector of the market. However, we also retain significant income that allows us to invest in the massive market infrastructure that makes this such a powerful and valuable utility for the world to build on. Giving away all the income is a recipe for starving an infrastructure, systematically underinvesting and ensuring that your platform will remain limited in scope. Furthermore, Circle believes that the future stablecoin market is likely several orders of magnitude larger than it is today. We’re actively bringing partners into the USDC ecosystem through a diverse and growing set of partnership models that span our work with exchanges, custodians, payments firms, asset issuers and more. We are excited to continue to build with a “big tent mentality” where the entire ecosystem can grow value together. 3) A consortium where everybody has a voice. Perhaps I have a cynical view, but the track record of consortium products achieving scale, P/M Fit or even basic product agility is absolutely dismal, and while there are examples of financial consortia that operate utilities, they are predictably slow moving. Large groups of large companies coordinate poorly, have misaligned incentives, slow things down and rarely create the space for real durable innovation and competitiveness. They also typically, out of their own self-interest, starve the consortium itself on an operating basis. We actually tried this in the early days of USDC, and even with a very small group, ran into endless challenges and complexity. Smaller, tighter strategic collaborations and commercial partnership arrangements with product and platform builders that can drive forward independently will almost always outcompete large consortiums. But oftentimes when these get formed, everyone feels like they should put their logo on the list, kiss the ring, and make noise about openness. But typically those same firms will turn to their operating units and make the best decisions for their customers, which often means partnering with the market leader and building durable win-win partnerships. There’s also been a bunch of commentary on Circle's partnership with Coinbase and what this all means. Our stablecoin partnership with Coinbase remains as strong as ever, and I think we both see that enormous opportunity ahead to expand the USDC network. A final comment: Circle remains committed to supporting a wide range of different products and infrastructures, even when we might compete with different aspects of those partners’ products in other areas of our business. With OUSD, we work closely with many of the founding members, and we expect that those same members will remain large USDC partners and customers. At the same time, as Circle has diversified our product and platform stack, expanding across Arc, CCTP, CPN, StableFX, Agent Stack and many other areas, we continue to expand the partnerships and collaboration with many other stablecoin issuers — dozens of them — to help them launch on Arc, leverage our interoperability infrastructure, get supported in our Wallets and become settlement and FX options on CPN and StableFX. We are huge believers in growth in the stablecoin ecosystem and welcome OUSD as a new member of the community!

戴尔宣布，全球第一台 Vera Rubin NVL72 交付给 CoreWeave 使用 周末搞大新闻，我在 Hyperliquid 上小小的开多了 $CRWV , 另一个逻辑是这段时间 $NBIS 涨的不错，作为龙头的 $CRWV 应该有空间 $DELL $NVDA hyperliquid:native

马斯克的 1 万亿美金薪酬批下来了 Yes, 你没看错，整个加密市值3.5万亿，马斯克接下来的薪酬包1万亿，可以买1000万个BTC，or 3 亿枚ETH 分 12 个阶段解锁，每阶段需同时满足市值门槛与至少一项业绩目标 - 市值目标 : 从当前1.5万亿美金开始，最终目标8.5万亿美金 - 业绩目标: 包括累计交付 2000 万辆汽车、FSD活跃用户达 1000 万、Robotaxi 商业化运营100万辆、Optimus机器人交付 100 万台，以及年度调整后EBITDA达到4000亿美元（连续四季度验证） （很适合作为项目方的解锁条款） 当然马斯克也开始了新的画饼，包括要自建芯片工厂、明年 4 月 1 日发布新的 Roadster, 以及 SpaceX 考虑 IPO 这里面还有一个 Alpha, 他提出「希望找到“某种方式”，让特斯拉的股东也能参与到这家太空探索公司的发展中」。难道是给特斯拉的股东空投 SpaceX 的股票？ 马斯克需在未来 7 年半内持续担任 CEO，应该可以专心干活了，希望不要再出其他幺蛾子 期待一下，希望 $TLSA 有机会成为我的退休基金之一哈哈 上一波跌倒 300 的时候买少了，下次回调再加仓

周日上午刷到这个特朗普夸奖 $MU 的视频，当时已经从收盘 745 涨到了 770 左右，我从 Hyperliquid 上买了一点作为防守，没想到还能涨，看来明天开盘大概率要破 800 了 随着美股券商的封杀，以及未来 CEX 也有可能被 CRS, Hyperliquid hyperliquid:native 的含金量还在上升 建议加密券商可以考虑集成一下, 非交易时间段走 Hyperliquid, 实现 7 x 24 交易

股票題材研究 TOP 6 KOLs 推薦！ 🔥 高質量潛力題材分析與對應股票統整看這些帳號就夠了 1. Serenity @aleabitoreddit 2. qinbafrank @qinbafrank 3. Jukan @jukan05 4. Fiona @nft_hu 5. Macro_Lin @LinQingV 6. Star @starzq 👇 往下看 6 大 KOLs 介紹

周日上午刷到这个特朗普夸奖 $MU 的视频，当时已经从收盘 745 涨到了 770 左右，我从 Hyperliquid 上买了一点作为防守，没想到还能涨，看来明天开盘大概率要破 800 了 随着美股券商的封杀，以及未来 CEX 也有可能被 CRS, Hyperliquid hyperliquid:native 的含金量还在上升 建议加密券商可以考虑集成一下, 非交易时间段走 Hyperliquid, 实现 7 x 24 交易

股票題材研究 TOP 6 KOLs 推薦！ 🔥 高質量潛力題材分析與對應股票統整看這些帳號就夠了 1. Serenity @aleabitoreddit 2. qinbafrank @qinbafrank 3. Jukan @jukan05 4. Fiona @nft_hu 5. Macro_Lin @LinQingV 6. Star @starzq 👇 往下看 6 大 KOLs 介紹