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Stunning stat: "Anthropic’s investors are expecting the company to reach a valuation of $2tn when it goes public in the coming weeks. Add in SpaceX, which began trading at $2tn after its IPO in June, and OpenAI, which is considering raising money privately at $1.2tn ahead of a public listing next year, and these companies alone could be worth well north of $5tn. Now compare that with the entire history of IPOs from 1980 to 2025. The 3,365 tech companies that went public in that period were worth a combined $4.1tn when they started trading." While I've written much about AI's transformative potential across sectors, I've always been dubious about how much value hyperscalers can seize enabling that transformation. As I dissect in my recent report on "The AI Trade" ( it's not about user acquisition. OpenAI claims to have over one billion active users across its services and two million businesses using its AI models. Anthropic has claimed to have more than 300,000 business customers. The question is not whether they can bring users to their services, but rather how much average revenue they can generate per customer relative to the price of building and maintaining their models. The cost of compute is inflating at the same time competition is depressing token pricing power. That's a precarious dynamic when so much hinges on the success of two companies. To again quote the report: "It’s hard to overstate how much hinges on these IPOs. As mentioned in the Executive Summary, OpenAI and Anthropic will account for 13% of AWS revenue and 27% of Google Cloud revenue this year. As for Microsoft, OpenAI alone accounts for roughly 70% of its AI-specific revenue ($24.1 billion out of an estimated $34 billion total for the fiscal year ending in June 2026). OpenAI has committed to tens of billions of spending on chips from the likes of Nvidia and Broadcom. Deepening circularity concerns, tech giant earnings growth has been increasingly driven by paper gains in the private-market valuations of Anthropic and OpenAI. In Q2, Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft reported $160 billion in cumulative “other income”, trouncing the $69 billion in “other income” reported in Q1. To quote the FT: “These one-off valuation boosts, derived in large part from enthusiasm around AI, risk distorting the financial picture at a time when investors are closely scrutinizing tech earnings.” If either Anthropic or OpenAI stumble in their IPOs, it’ll hit tech giants on multiple balance-sheet fronts and likely ripple through the US and global economy. A pin-prick popping of the AI bubble may not be our base case, but if a pin is out there, it’s likely the revenue versus spending trajectories of Anthropic and OpenAI." FT link:

OpenAI 自研AI芯片 Jalapeño来了 是由OpenAI 和 Broadcom 合作做的 ASIC（专用芯片），专门做推理的 比 Nvidia 旗舰更省电、更快，计划 2026 年底有限部署、2027 年扩大规模

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. The U.S. reportedly offered Iran a deal to halt the siege and lift sanctions in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending proxy attacks, according to Al Arabiya. Axios also reports that Rubio told several foreign counterparts the U.S. does not plan new strikes on Iran for now, with pressure shifting toward the naval blockade and new sanctions campaign instead. Crude Oil fell 4% and the 10-year treasury bond fell from 4.72% to 4.62%. 2. Global physical gold-backed ETFs $GLD attracted $6.4B of inflows last week, their largest weekly intake since January and the 3rd-largest weekly inflow on record. North America led with $4.4B, followed by Europe at $1.7B and Asia at $300M. This marked the 7th straight week of inflows, with global gold ETFs pulling in $16.4B over that stretch. Total AUM in global gold ETFs rose by $33B last week to $615B, the highest level since the second week of May. 3. Intuit $INTU reported Q4’26 revenue of $4.4B, beating estimates of $4.27B and up 14% YoY. Adjusted EPS came in at $4.03 versus $3.58 expected. Global Business Solutions revenue rose 14% YoY to $3.4B, the Online Ecosystem grew 17% YoY to $2.6B, Consumer revenue increased 14% YoY to $930M, and Credit Karma revenue rose 16% YoY to $743M. For FY27, Intuit guided revenue to $23.3B–$23.5B versus $23.72B expected, while adjusted EPS guidance of $22.88–$23.12 came in well below the $27.32 estimate. The company also raised its dividend 15% YoY to $1.38/share, bought back $5.5B of stock, and has $7.9B remaining on its authorization. Management said its strategy is to win as an AI-driven expert platform while staying disciplined on investments and scaling its big bets. 4. President Trump said the U.S. Navy has removed and/or detonated all mines from international waters in the Strait of Hormuz. He said Iran has been notified that any ship or boat placing new mines will be “immediately and systematically destroyed.” Trump added that Space Force is monitoring every square inch of the Strait, along with Pickaxe Mountain and the three previously destroyed nuclear sites, and said a “Zero Tolerance” policy on mine placement is now in full effect. 5. Canada is responding to U.S. tariffs with new tariffs of its own. The country is raising steel tariffs to 50% from 25%, while roughly 700 products will face new tariff rates of 15%, 25%, and 50%. The measures are set to take effect on September 8, marking another escalation in the U.S.–Canada trade dispute. 6. Anthropic is expected to tell IPO investors its total addressable market exceeds $30T, topping SpaceX’s $28.5T estimate, according to WSJ. The figure represents the potential value of work Anthropic believes AI models could eventually perform, not a direct revenue forecast. Anthropic generated $11.6B in Q2 revenue and could seek to raise as much as $100B at roughly a $2T valuation. IPO documents are expected within weeks, potentially setting up a September or early October listing. 7. OpenAI’s data-center head Chris Malone left the company last week, according to WSJ. Malone joined in March 2025 shortly after Stargate was announced and played a key role overseeing OpenAI’s massive data-center buildout. He previously led data-center strategy at Meta and earlier worked on data-center technology at Google. The departure comes just weeks after OpenAI also replaced its chief revenue officer, adding another senior leadership change as the company races to scale infrastructure, revenue, and compute capacity. 8. ClickHouse has surpassed $350M in annual recurring revenue, up 40% since May, as AI agents drive demand for database and observability infrastructure. OpenAI’s usage has reportedly grown roughly 10x over the past year to more than 30 petabytes of data per day, or around 30T events daily. OpenAI has also shifted parts of its log-management workload from Datadog to ClickHouse over the past year. ClickHouse was valued at $15B in January and says gross margins currently range from 50%–70%. Earlier this year, the company acquired Langfuse to expand deeper into monitoring AI applications and agents. Nebius $NBIS owned a 28% stake in ClickHouse as of May 2025, though that stake has likely been diluted by subsequent fundraising. 9. JPMorgan reiterated its Overweight rating on SpaceX $SPCX with a $240 price target, saying the company’s AI ambitions are coming into sharper focus and that it is increasingly positive on Grok. The firm highlighted SpaceX’s completed acquisition of Cursor on 8/14 as an important step in building enterprise AI capabilities. Cursor brings roughly $4B of ARR as of June 2026, with about 75% coming from businesses, which JPMorgan says should help streamline go-to-market and provide valuable model-training data. The firm also said Cursor data is already showing up in Grok’s supplemental training, with tangible improvements in recent model performance. 10. OpenAI says its new Broadcom-built Jalapeno AI chip outperformed Nvidia $NVDA GB300 in both throughput per watt and response latency during internal testing, according to Bloomberg. The chip is built specifically for inference, not training, and runs at roughly 700 watts. OpenAI plans to begin deploying Jalapeno for its models later this year, saying the performance gap widened on larger workloads, including Moonshot’s Kimi model, and that the chip has also performed well on unreleased OpenAI models. The key caveat is that Jalapeno was tested against GB300, not Nvidia’s newer Vera Rubin generation. OpenAI says a second-generation chip is already nearing tape-out, while work on a third generation has begun. 11. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 1.8M contracts, $TSLA with 1.8M contracts, $AAPL with 636K contracts, $SPCX with 548K contracts, $INTC with 540K contracts, $AMZN with 498K contracts, $MU with 483K contracts, $AMD with 403K contracts, $PLTR with 361K contracts, and $SOFI with 359K contracts. 12. Raymond James raised its Nvidia $NVDA price target to $352 from $330 and reiterated a Strong Buy rating. The firm says Nvidia’s CPU opportunity is becoming more important, especially for agentic AI workloads, even though CPUs are only about 3% of sales today. Raymond James expects CPU revenue to reach roughly 5% of total revenue by CY28 and believes Nvidia could potentially become the world leader in CPU revenue within several years. The firm also argued the stock remains inexpensive, trading at less than 15x CY27 GAAP earnings, below the S&P 500 at 18.6x, despite sales and net income growth still expected to exceed 20% in CY28. Its new $352 target is based on a 22x multiple on CY28 estimates, which Raymond James views as conservative given Nvidia’s leadership, CUDA moat, GPU performance, free cash flow, and history of trading at much higher multiples. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

离开Broadcom后，Ken Venner已经不需要再为钱工作；离开SpaceX后，更是如此。 但这位前SpaceX CIO仍加入Senra Systems，改造长期依赖人工的线束制造业。 他说，自己喜欢和有趣的人解决有趣的问题，并做出真正有益的改变。财富自由之后，难题和使命感成了继续工作的理由。

7/ Epoch AI的结论是：至少短期内，融资不会成为前沿算力增长的主要瓶颈。 Broadcom、Apollo和Blackstone还计划把这套模式扩展至2028年前超过20GW的部署。 但它能否持续，最终取决于一件事：AI公司的长期收入，能否兑现今天签下的巨额租约。

.@elonmusk's employees are built different. Ex-SpaceX CIO Ken Venner: " I don't have to work." "Having left Broadcom, I didn't have to work anymore. I left SpaceX, I really didn't have to work anymore." "I like interesting problems with interesting people trying to make a change that benefits mankind." "Senra was just that unique opportunity for me to come in and take a dormant market that I think is critical to what's about to happen in the US economy, or the worldwide economy, and really make a transformational change."

推动半导体行情的杠杆资金正在反噬，美韩台半导体同时进入去杠杆循环 6 月份还在不断给 AI 和半导体行情增加燃料的杠杆 ETF，到了 7 月已经开始快速反向去杠杆。美国科技类杠杆 ETF 的资产规模较 6 月高点减少约 500 亿美元，目前只剩下接近 500 亿美元，回到了 4 月以来的最低水平。 韩国和台湾相关杠杆 ETF 的规模同样从高点下降超过一半，目前只剩下约 270 亿美元。两个市场加起来还有大约 770 亿美元。短短一个多月，接近一半的杠杆 ETF 资产已经消失。 杠杆 ETF 的规模缩水，一部分来自底层股票下跌造成的净值损失，一部分来自投资者主动赎回，还有一部分来自基金为了维持两倍或者三倍杠杆进行的每日再平衡。投资者赎回以后，基金需要卖出股票，底层股票下跌以后，为了维持目标杠杆，基金同样需要降低仓位。 上涨的时候，这套机制会不断制造机械买盘。股价上涨，ETF 净值增加，为了继续维持固定杠杆，基金还要继续买入底层股票，股价越涨，买得越多，基金规模也越大。 行情反转以后，整个过程就会倒过来。股票下跌造成 ETF 净值缩水，基金开始减仓，投资者看到亏损扩大以后继续赎回，又会迫使基金卖出更多底层股票。 三倍做多美国半导体的 $SOXL 已经较 6 月高点下跌约 67%。跌掉 67% 以后，需要再上涨超过 200% 才能回到原来的位置。 美国科技类产品押注 Nvidia、AMD、Broadcom 和 Micron，韩国资金集中在 SK 海力士和三星电子，台湾则集中在台积电和半导体供应链。最终押注的都是 AI 算力、先进制程和存储芯片。 前期全球资金同时买入同一个故事，杠杆 ETF 把这笔交易进一步放大，现在美国科技股和韩国半导体同时下跌，三个市场的杠杆也开始一起收缩。 当然杠杆 ETF 规模已经接近腰斩，也说明杠杆带来的仓位正在被清理，但这种清洗还需要多少时间才能让市场回归正常，谁也说不好。 @Gate Crypto、美股、港股、韩股、黄金、CFD、预测市场一站交易

最近关注 BIT 美股融券数据后的一个变化：市场不再只有看多的声音，尤其是AI这种高估值方向，多空分歧正在慢慢放大 今天复盘最大的感受：市场开始奖励“确定性”，而不是单纯奖励“AI概念” 美股第54天 发现一个变化：以前看到一家公司的名字和AI挂钩，市场愿意给很高预期 但现在资金开始问一个更现实的问题： 你的AI收入，到底什么时候能变成利润？ 这也是为什么最近我没有急着追涨 机会很多，但我更想等市场把答案交出来 今天重新看了一下 $AVGO 以前很多人关注AI，第一反应都是GPU 但我觉得接下来一个值得关注的方向，是： AI从训练走向规模化部署后，定制芯片和网络的重要性会越来越高。 Broadcom的逻辑就在这里 它不是最热门的AI故事，但它处在一个很关键的位置： 大规模AI集群，需要的不只是计算能力，还需要高速连接和定制化解决方案。 我关注它，不是因为短期股价涨跌 而是看几个东西： AI相关收入增长能不能持续 大客户订单是否扩大 毛利率能否保持 如果未来AI基础设施继续扩张，ASIC可能会成为GPU之外的重要补充 但风险也很明显： 市场已经知道这个故事，如果增长低于预期，高估值公司调整会很快 另外我最近降低了对短期追涨的兴趣 比如 $NVDA 我依然认可它的长期地位 但现在买入，需要考虑一个问题： 如果未来半年AI资本开支继续增长，市场是否已经提前定价？ 所以我的策略： 上涨的时候观察 回调的时候寻找机会 更希望买在市场犹豫的时候，而不是所有人都兴奋的时候 BIT融券数据最近也会看一下 我觉得它比较有价值的地方，是观察市场分歧 一家公司上涨过程中，如果空头增加但股价依然强势，说明资金承接可能不错 但如果高估值叠加空头增加，同时跌破关键位置，就需要重新检查逻辑 此内容由@BITstocksCN赞助，买美股上BIT一1万+支美股与ETF，真实持仓，享股息分红 今天没有交易 不是没有看好的股票，而是现在更愿意等待 美股第54天，继续记录 下一阶段我更想研究的是： AI产业链里面，那些没有被市场反复讨论，但真正控制瓶颈的公司 （学习记录，不构成投资建议）

SAMSUNG’S $200B BROADCOM DEAL IS BIGGER THAN A MEMORY SUPPLY CONTRACT. 📊 Samsung Electronics $005930 and Broadcom $AVGO have agreed to pursue more than $200B of semiconductor cooperation through 2030, covering HBM, advanced foundry manufacturing and packaging. Reuters separately confirmed the $200B Samsung–Broadcom portion of the wider Korea–US semiconductor agreements. The headline number is huge, but the strategic shift matters more. Samsung is trying to move from being viewed as a component supplier to becoming a full-stack AI semiconductor partner: Memory → Foundry → Advanced Packaging The reported scope includes HBM4 and HBM4E for Broadcom’s AI accelerators, sub-2nm foundry processes for key chip products, and integrated support from design optimization through packaging and mass production. That matters because Broadcom is one of the central players in custom AI accelerators and high-speed data-center networking. If this MOU converts into real production orders, Samsung would capture more value from each AI chip—not only memory revenue, but also manufacturing and packaging economics. For the Korean market, Samsung is the clearest direct beneficiary. Equipment, materials and packaging names may follow, but only after capacity expansion, supplier participation and actual purchase volumes are confirmed. I would not treat the entire $200B headline as booked revenue yet. This is still an MOU. The real revaluation depends on: → Final contract volumes → Product and process allocation → Production timing → Pricing and margins → Whether orders translate into utilization and earnings The headline creates expectations. Execution is what creates the rerating. $005930 $AVGO For reference only. This is not investment advice. Avoid excessive leverage, do not chase sharp moves and maintain strict risk management.

黃仁勳日前飛南韓的會見科技大老的真正目的。當多數媒體把焦點放在他見了誰、上了什麼綜藝節目、吃了哪家五花肉時，真正的產業巨變正在檯面下發生。 南韓，可能正是黃仁勳把 AI 帶入現實世界最重要的實驗室。 #黃仁勳# #人工智慧# #實體AI# #科技巨頭# #總體經濟# #供應鏈# #投資洞察# #科技趨勢# #台積電# #美股# #台股# #港股# #邦妮區塊鏈# #永續合約# #美股代幣# #NVIDIA# #TSMC# #台積電# #TSM# #broadcom# #AVGO# #Tesla# #TSLA# #MU# #Micron# #聯發科# #台股大跌# #比特幣# #ai# #btc# #黃仁勳# #投資# #Stock# #2330台積電# #比特幣# #跌停# #漲停#