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2015 — You missed NVIDIA. 2016 — You missed Tesla. 2017 — You missed Bitcoin’s breakout. 2018 — You missed Amazon. 2019 — You missed Microsoft. 2020 — You missed Apple. 2021 — You missed Tesla’s second run. 2022 — You missed NVIDIA’s AI ignition. 2023 — You missed Super Micro. 2024 — You missed Broadcom. 2025 — You missed Palantir. 2026 — What are you still missing?
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Dylan Patel says Nvidia’s next CEO has to hold off OpenAI, Broadcom, Google, Anthropic, Meta, Amazon, and AMD chip teams, who are all 'fucking good' “It’s not like you’re fighting, no knocks against Palo Alto Networks, but their competitors are not that amazing, versus Nvidia’s fighting an OpenAI chip team, a Broadcom chip team, a Google chip team, an Anthropic chip team, a Meta chip team, Amazon chip team. These guys are fucking good. AMD. They’re all really good, and all these startups.” “They’re all good. It’s not like they’re incompetent. I think it’s very different. As great as Lisa Su is, she took down Intel, who’s incompetent.” “What is the person who defined a category and created it and kept all the invaders at bay? It’s very different than being second place or making smart tactical business decisions, innovating on something once there’s already a category established. It’s just very different.”
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I have no confidence in the future of $NVDA after Jensen’s resignation. Beyond the next couple years of existing revenue + roadmaps. Without Jensen’s visionary leadership that previously set them ahead of $AMD to Broadcom It’s don’t find Nvidia compelling in the long horizon
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Key takeaways on Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s resignation: 1. Near term, the bad news is priced in: For the stock market, this could be a one-time clearing event. Huang has now fully cut ties with Nvidia, so Congress summoning him and any follow-up investigations should have less impact on Nvidia’s stock from here. As for how Huang’s next moves might affect Nvidia, it’s too early to call before the investigation results are out. 2. Google’s TPU is likely the biggest beneficiary: With Nvidia facing succession uncertainty, Google’s TPU has a chance to win more trust from customers and the supply chain. Its key partners, MediaTek and Broadcom, could be the market’s near-term focus. 3. Succession impact shows up in 2028 at the earliest: CFO Colette Kress is now interim CEO. The formal CEO transition and the organizational changes that come with it will likely start affecting Nvidia’s product development and competitiveness in 2028 at the earliest. 4. Capacity pre-booking and spec upgrades are the key focus for supply chain checks: Huang’s product strategy pushed the supply chain hard in two ways: capacity pre-booking and spec upgrades. It’s critical to watch for any changes in capacity expansion and new tech development across the supply chain. These are among the core reasons Nvidia’s supply chain trades at high P/E multiples. 5. China demand and export controls: The share of Nvidia’s AI chip revenue that ultimately ends up with Chinese buyers may be higher than what the company has officially stated. That’s why some investors worry Nvidia’s revenue will drop sharply once the US government tightens export controls. But China’s end demand won’t disappear because of export controls. Even under tighter rules, as long as overseas resale channels exist, Chinese buyers may still pay the premium, even at several times the price, and get Nvidia chips/racks through indirect routes.
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重點分析 Nvidia CEO 黃仁勳辭職: 1. 短期利空出盡: 對股市而言,短期內可能是一次性的利空出盡。黃仁勳目前已與 Nvidia 完全切割,接下來國會傳喚黃仁勳及後續調查,對 Nvidia 股價的影響應該會較小。至於黃仁勳離職後的動向對 Nvidia 的影響,在調查結果出爐前,現在就下判斷仍言之過早。 2. Google TPU 為直觀下的最大受益者: 在 Nvidia 面臨接班不確定性下,Google TPU 可能有機會進一步取得客戶與供應鏈信任,其核心合作廠商聯發科與 Broadcom 或為短期市場焦點。 3. 接班影響最快自 2028 年浮現: 目前 CFO Colette Kress 擔任代理執行長。後續正式 CEO 交接與相應的組織改革,對 Nvidia 產品開發與競爭力的影響,預期最快可能自 2028 年開始浮現。 4. 產能預訂與規格升級為供應鏈研究焦點: 黃仁勳的產品策略對供應鏈有兩大激進影響:「產能預訂」與「規格升級」。未來需密切關注供應鏈在擴產與新技術開發方面有無變化,這是支撐 Nvidia 供應鏈高本益比的核心因素之一。 5. 中國需求與出口管制: Nvidia 最終流向中國買家的 AI 晶片營收比重,可能高於過去對外的正式聲明。因此,有些投資人擔心,美國政府實施更嚴格的出口管制後,Nvidia 營收將顯著衰退。不過,中國終端需求並不會因出口管制而消失。即使出口管制加嚴,只要海外仍存在轉售管道,即使轉售價格高出數倍,中國買家仍有可能承擔溢價並輾轉取得 Nvidia 晶片/機櫃。
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看到老黄下岗了,其实最难过的是在华人一手遮天的芯片领域(包括但不限于AMD、Broadcom、Intel、TSMC等数不清的顶尖芯片公司的老板),没看到一个人公开发声,反而川普和马斯克像是好兄弟,能在第一时间站出来公开发声挺老黄
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Stunning stat: "Anthropic’s investors are expecting the company to reach a valuation of $2tn when it goes public in the coming weeks. Add in SpaceX, which began trading at $2tn after its IPO in June, and OpenAI, which is considering raising money privately at $1.2tn ahead of a public listing next year, and these companies alone could be worth well north of $5tn. Now compare that with the entire history of IPOs from 1980 to 2025. The 3,365 tech companies that went public in that period were worth a combined $4.1tn when they started trading." While I've written much about AI's transformative potential across sectors, I've always been dubious about how much value hyperscalers can seize enabling that transformation. As I dissect in my recent report on "The AI Trade" ( it's not about user acquisition. OpenAI claims to have over one billion active users across its services and two million businesses using its AI models. Anthropic has claimed to have more than 300,000 business customers. The question is not whether they can bring users to their services, but rather how much average revenue they can generate per customer relative to the price of building and maintaining their models. The cost of compute is inflating at the same time competition is depressing token pricing power. That's a precarious dynamic when so much hinges on the success of two companies. To again quote the report: "It’s hard to overstate how much hinges on these IPOs. As mentioned in the Executive Summary, OpenAI and Anthropic will account for 13% of AWS revenue and 27% of Google Cloud revenue this year. As for Microsoft, OpenAI alone accounts for roughly 70% of its AI-specific revenue ($24.1 billion out of an estimated $34 billion total for the fiscal year ending in June 2026). OpenAI has committed to tens of billions of spending on chips from the likes of Nvidia and Broadcom. Deepening circularity concerns, tech giant earnings growth has been increasingly driven by paper gains in the private-market valuations of Anthropic and OpenAI. In Q2, Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft reported $160 billion in cumulative “other income”, trouncing the $69 billion in “other income” reported in Q1. To quote the FT: “These one-off valuation boosts, derived in large part from enthusiasm around AI, risk distorting the financial picture at a time when investors are closely scrutinizing tech earnings.” If either Anthropic or OpenAI stumble in their IPOs, it’ll hit tech giants on multiple balance-sheet fronts and likely ripple through the US and global economy. A pin-prick popping of the AI bubble may not be our base case, but if a pin is out there, it’s likely the revenue versus spending trajectories of Anthropic and OpenAI." FT link:
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OpenAI 自研AI芯片 Jalapeño来了 是由OpenAI 和 Broadcom 合作做的 ASIC(专用芯片),专门做推理的 比 Nvidia 旗舰更省电、更快,计划 2026 年底有限部署、2027 年扩大规模
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A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. The U.S. reportedly offered Iran a deal to halt the siege and lift sanctions in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending proxy attacks, according to Al Arabiya. Axios also reports that Rubio told several foreign counterparts the U.S. does not plan new strikes on Iran for now, with pressure shifting toward the naval blockade and new sanctions campaign instead. Crude Oil fell 4% and the 10-year treasury bond fell from 4.72% to 4.62%. 2. Global physical gold-backed ETFs $GLD attracted $6.4B of inflows last week, their largest weekly intake since January and the 3rd-largest weekly inflow on record. North America led with $4.4B, followed by Europe at $1.7B and Asia at $300M. This marked the 7th straight week of inflows, with global gold ETFs pulling in $16.4B over that stretch. Total AUM in global gold ETFs rose by $33B last week to $615B, the highest level since the second week of May. 3. Intuit $INTU reported Q4’26 revenue of $4.4B, beating estimates of $4.27B and up 14% YoY. Adjusted EPS came in at $4.03 versus $3.58 expected. Global Business Solutions revenue rose 14% YoY to $3.4B, the Online Ecosystem grew 17% YoY to $2.6B, Consumer revenue increased 14% YoY to $930M, and Credit Karma revenue rose 16% YoY to $743M. For FY27, Intuit guided revenue to $23.3B–$23.5B versus $23.72B expected, while adjusted EPS guidance of $22.88–$23.12 came in well below the $27.32 estimate. The company also raised its dividend 15% YoY to $1.38/share, bought back $5.5B of stock, and has $7.9B remaining on its authorization. Management said its strategy is to win as an AI-driven expert platform while staying disciplined on investments and scaling its big bets. 4. President Trump said the U.S. Navy has removed and/or detonated all mines from international waters in the Strait of Hormuz. He said Iran has been notified that any ship or boat placing new mines will be “immediately and systematically destroyed.” Trump added that Space Force is monitoring every square inch of the Strait, along with Pickaxe Mountain and the three previously destroyed nuclear sites, and said a “Zero Tolerance” policy on mine placement is now in full effect. 5. Canada is responding to U.S. tariffs with new tariffs of its own. The country is raising steel tariffs to 50% from 25%, while roughly 700 products will face new tariff rates of 15%, 25%, and 50%. The measures are set to take effect on September 8, marking another escalation in the U.S.–Canada trade dispute. 6. Anthropic is expected to tell IPO investors its total addressable market exceeds $30T, topping SpaceX’s $28.5T estimate, according to WSJ. The figure represents the potential value of work Anthropic believes AI models could eventually perform, not a direct revenue forecast. Anthropic generated $11.6B in Q2 revenue and could seek to raise as much as $100B at roughly a $2T valuation. IPO documents are expected within weeks, potentially setting up a September or early October listing. 7. OpenAI’s data-center head Chris Malone left the company last week, according to WSJ. Malone joined in March 2025 shortly after Stargate was announced and played a key role overseeing OpenAI’s massive data-center buildout. He previously led data-center strategy at Meta and earlier worked on data-center technology at Google. The departure comes just weeks after OpenAI also replaced its chief revenue officer, adding another senior leadership change as the company races to scale infrastructure, revenue, and compute capacity. 8. ClickHouse has surpassed $350M in annual recurring revenue, up 40% since May, as AI agents drive demand for database and observability infrastructure. OpenAI’s usage has reportedly grown roughly 10x over the past year to more than 30 petabytes of data per day, or around 30T events daily. OpenAI has also shifted parts of its log-management workload from Datadog to ClickHouse over the past year. ClickHouse was valued at $15B in January and says gross margins currently range from 50%–70%. Earlier this year, the company acquired Langfuse to expand deeper into monitoring AI applications and agents. Nebius $NBIS owned a 28% stake in ClickHouse as of May 2025, though that stake has likely been diluted by subsequent fundraising. 9. JPMorgan reiterated its Overweight rating on SpaceX $SPCX with a $240 price target, saying the company’s AI ambitions are coming into sharper focus and that it is increasingly positive on Grok. The firm highlighted SpaceX’s completed acquisition of Cursor on 8/14 as an important step in building enterprise AI capabilities. Cursor brings roughly $4B of ARR as of June 2026, with about 75% coming from businesses, which JPMorgan says should help streamline go-to-market and provide valuable model-training data. The firm also said Cursor data is already showing up in Grok’s supplemental training, with tangible improvements in recent model performance. 10. OpenAI says its new Broadcom-built Jalapeno AI chip outperformed Nvidia $NVDA GB300 in both throughput per watt and response latency during internal testing, according to Bloomberg. The chip is built specifically for inference, not training, and runs at roughly 700 watts. OpenAI plans to begin deploying Jalapeno for its models later this year, saying the performance gap widened on larger workloads, including Moonshot’s Kimi model, and that the chip has also performed well on unreleased OpenAI models. The key caveat is that Jalapeno was tested against GB300, not Nvidia’s newer Vera Rubin generation. OpenAI says a second-generation chip is already nearing tape-out, while work on a third generation has begun. 11. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 1.8M contracts, $TSLA with 1.8M contracts, $AAPL with 636K contracts, $SPCX with 548K contracts, $INTC with 540K contracts, $AMZN with 498K contracts, $MU with 483K contracts, $AMD with 403K contracts, $PLTR with 361K contracts, and $SOFI with 359K contracts. 12. Raymond James raised its Nvidia $NVDA price target to $352 from $330 and reiterated a Strong Buy rating. The firm says Nvidia’s CPU opportunity is becoming more important, especially for agentic AI workloads, even though CPUs are only about 3% of sales today. Raymond James expects CPU revenue to reach roughly 5% of total revenue by CY28 and believes Nvidia could potentially become the world leader in CPU revenue within several years. The firm also argued the stock remains inexpensive, trading at less than 15x CY27 GAAP earnings, below the S&P 500 at 18.6x, despite sales and net income growth still expected to exceed 20% in CY28. Its new $352 target is based on a 22x multiple on CY28 estimates, which Raymond James views as conservative given Nvidia’s leadership, CUDA moat, GPU performance, free cash flow, and history of trading at much higher multiples. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.
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离开Broadcom后,Ken Venner已经不需要再为钱工作;离开SpaceX后,更是如此。 但这位前SpaceX CIO仍加入Senra Systems,改造长期依赖人工的线束制造业。 他说,自己喜欢和有趣的人解决有趣的问题,并做出真正有益的改变。财富自由之后,难题和使命感成了继续工作的理由。
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